Links tagged “models”

"We need to prepare, not for the consequences of a population boom, but a population bust. A child born this decade will probably reach middle age in a world where population growth has stalled, and may already have begun to shrink. "--Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, The Observer, 27 January 2019 

"The basic claim that global population, now 7.5bn, will decline rapidly later this century after peaking at below 9bn — rather than the 11bn that is the UN’s central forecast." - "Market economics failed to topple Chinese communism, but perhaps the halving of its population by the end of the century will do the trick instead."

Why? "It can be summed up in one sentence. As societies urbanize, women become better educated (including about contraception) and more financially autonomous thanks to working outside the home, and this causes fertility rates to plummet, which is reinforced in most places by the weakening ties of family, clan and organized religion."

Also see: Flashback 1971: John Lennon from the grave makes scientific chumps out of John Holdren & Paul Ehrlich! Lennon: ‘I don’t believe in overpopulation. It is a myth’

Released during a historic cold outbreak: A new climate modeling study from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, released on January 28, 2019, claims that ice fishing, hockey, skating and skiing on frozen lakes are endangered by "global warming."The study states that such "iconic cold-weather past-times could become a rare winter treat" due to "global warming." 

Analysis Debunks Absurd Sea Level Rise Claims About South Florida – Sea level rise in the Miami area is not accelerating and it is rising at a rate of about 1 foot per century.

Climatologist’s sea-level rise study disputes climate-disaster predictions – In many cases, ‘half of the sea-level rise is really from land sinking’ -  “Miami Is Sinking, But That Doesn’t Mean Sea Levels Are Rising”

Sea level expert Geologist Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner ridiculed the claim in Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth that Florida would be half covered by rising seas. “These are models. They are doing it wrongly, and this is lobbying. Geologic facts are on one side, lobbying and models are on the other side.” Morner added, “The rapid rise in sea levels predicted by computer models simply cannot happen.” ...

Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook: “If you look at the total global sea level from about 1850 until the present time it’s been rising at a fairly constant rate, rather slow—about 7 inches a century.... It’s about 1 to 2 mm a year so if you’re 50 years old you experienced a sea level rise about 3 ½ inches and you probably didn’t even notice it,” 

Former NASA Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer:  “Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every 10 years." ... Spencer on Miami flooding: “That flooding is mostly a combination of (1) natural sea level rise (I show there has been no acceleration of sea level rise beyond what was already happening since the 1800s), and (2) satellite-measured sinking of the reclaimed swamps that have been built upon for over 100 years in Miami Beach.”

U. Penn Geologist Dr. Robert Giegengack explains, “At the present rate of sea-level rise it’s going to take 3,500 years to get up there [to Gore’s predicted rise of 20 feet]. So if for some reason this warming process that melts ice is cutting loose and accelerating, sea level doesn’t know it. And sea level, we think, is the best indicator of global warming.”

CNN: 'Climate change will affect how many boys are born worldwide, scientists say'

[Climate Depot Note: Which means more "global warming!" See: Flashback 2005: Men Warm Globe, Women Feel the Heat, Group Claims) Perhaps we need to follow Richard Dawkins and embrace "a feminist approach to climatology." Dawkins on Jan. 13, 2019: "Just met somebody who works on a feminist approach to climatology, as opposed to a top-down reductive approach."]

CNN: 'Climate change could alter the proportion of male and female newborns, with more boys born in places where temperatures rise and fewer boys born in places with other environmental changes, such as drought or wildfire caused by global warming. 

Samuli Helle, a senior researcher in the Section of Ecology, Department of Biology at the University of Turku in Finland, also found that "warmer temperatures bring sons." In his study of the Sami people of Northern Finland, he was also able to quantify the effect: For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in temperature, there was a 0.06% increase in the ratio of newborn boys compared with girls..."Not a dramatic influence at first sight but it should be remembered that in large populations such effect size might mean thousands of 'extra' boys annually," Helle wrote in an email.

Stress stemming directly from "climate events caused by global warming" might also affect the sex ratio, Fukuda wrote in an email. ...

Climate models "predict is that things will get less predictable."

An analysis published in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences reveals the 1880-2013 temperature changes fit “perfectly” (0.9 correlation) into a calculation utilizing 15,295 periodic functions of natural variation...The authors claim this affirms that the non-anthropogenic “major climate factors” (i.e., solar-cloud and ENSO forcing) can still be considered the “main reason” driving modern warming.

Four climate scientists assert (1) the last ~130 years of temperature changes fit “perfectly” into statistical indices of natural variation, and (2) a long-term deep cooling of the Earth system has recently commenced.