Links tagged “models”
- Roger Pielke Jr: The unstoppable momentum of outdated science – ‘Implausible scenarios’ of the future’ have already diverged from the real world and thus offer a poor basis for projecting policy-relevant variables’
- Celebrate! ‘We’re past the point of no return on global warming, scientists warn’ based on ‘a new modeling study’ – So this means no need for Green New Deal or UN Paris?!
Praises lockdowns as tool to fight global warming. "Earlier this year, the Earth saw a huge dip in carbon emissions as nations around the globe locked down to slow the spread of the coronavirus. It offered a glimpse into what the world might look like if we took drastic steps to reduce our carbon emissions to slow the spread of global warming: For a brief moment, smog-choked cities around the world had clear skies.
According to a new modeling study published in Scientific Reports today, even if we made such drastic reductions [COVID lockdowns] permanent, it would still not be enough. The study suggests that if we stopped all human-made greenhouse gas emissions immediately, the Earth’s temperatures would continue to rise because of self-sustaining melting ice and permafrost." ... "No matter how much we reduce emissions now, warming will continue, and the self-sustained melting of Arctic ice and permafrost that has already begun could continue for 500 years."
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RealClimateScience.com's Tony Heller rebuts claims in a new video: "The author is confirming what I have been saying all along: The covid lockdowns are the implementation of the Green New Deal."
Climate Depot's Morano warned in 2015 that the UN Paris climate pact was only the beginning: Flashback 2015: ‘Does this mean we never have to hear about ‘solving’ global warming again!?’ - Statistician Dr. Kevin Dayaratna testifies to Congress: Govt climate models reveal CO2 emissions may be a net benefit to society
- Two New Studies Offer New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming – Climate models for ‘entertainment purposes’ only
Warning labels on climate models for policymakers needed: The sticker should read: “WARNING! This model predicts atmospheric warming roughly 7 times larger than observed trends. Use of this model for anything other than entertainment purposes is not recommended.”
- Policymakers Misled…New Nature Study ‘Casts Doubt On Forecasts Of Regional Climate Change’
- ‘Low-Fact Propaganda’: Medis’s Alarmism Exposed (Again), Greenland Ice Not ‘Doomed’
- Lomborg rips NYT’s latest ‘badly reported’ sea level rise article as ‘absurdly unrealistic’ – ‘253 million people will *NOT* be at risk in 2100’
Bjorn Lomborg: "Everyone ran this story, but badly reported. 253 million people will *NOT* be at risk in 2100. The study assumes we rip out all coastal defenses — absurdly unrealistic. With realistic assumptions, numbers at least 100-1000 lower."
Lomborg continued: "Central quote: Only true if 'no dykes or sea walls in place.' Great for scary stories, bad for informing policy."
"How is it relevant for mayor of New York or Jakarta to know what happens if humanity rips out all dikes and sea walls?" he asked.
"Is this making us well-informed, or just scared?"
- Bill Gates: ‘Climate Change’ Deaths Will Match COVID-19’s In 40 Years – Claims COVID’s ‘misery’ will ‘happen regularly’ if climate change is not stopped
"If you want to understand the kind of damage that climate change will inflict, look at COVID-19 and spread the pain out over a much longer period of time," the Microsoft co-founder wrote on his blog Tuesday.
"The loss of life and economic misery caused by this pandemic are on par with what will happen regularly if we do not eliminate the world’s carbon emissions."
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Flashback: Add ‘climate change’ to death certificates – New study demands ‘climate change’ be added as ‘pre-existing condition’ - Cause of Death? Climate Change. - "Climate change is a killer, but we don't acknowledge it on death certificates," co-author Dr Arnagretta Hunter, from The Australian National University (ANU) Medical School, said. "There is second component on a death certificate which allows for pre-existing conditions and other factors.
- Critics Rebut Computer Modelling Exercise On Offshore Wind Costs
- Flawed Models Are Throwing Off Climate Forecasts Of Rain And Storms – Efforts to attribute specific weather events to ‘global warming’ are rife with errors
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Bill Gates & UN Launch New Climate Agenda – Seeks ‘to kick start a transformational decade’ of climate ‘action’
Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, and Narendra Modi will apparently gather in the Netherlands. There, along with Bill Gates, UN head Antonio Guterres, and personnel associated with the European Union, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, they’ll attend a climate summit hosted by the Global Center on Adaptation. ...
We’re told this summit "will launch a comprehensive Adaptation Action Agenda to kick start a transformational decade."
Donna Laframboise: "The chutzpah is astonishing. The global economy is in tatters. Billions face an uncertain future. Health care workers are exhausted. Yet this Clique of Self-Important People™ is full speed ahead, determined to impose its climate vision on the rest of us."
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The Return of the Dead: Countering Species Extinction Claims – The most aggressive claims rest on shaky foundations’
In the last 500 years only some 80 mammals are recorded as having gone extinct. In his book, More From Less, Andrew McAfee, a board member of HumanProgress.org, discusses how relatively rare recorded extinctions are – with some 530 across all species in the last five centuries. More importantly, he notes, the rate of extinction “appear[s] to have slowed down in recent decades; for example, no marine creatures have been recorded as extinct in the last fifty years.”
Matt Ridley, another board member and frequent contributor to this site, argues that despite the human population doubling in the last half-century, “the extinction rate of wild species, especially in the most industrialized countries,” seems to have fallen rather than increased. While absence of evidence isn’t the same as evidence of absence, and there might be millions of unrecorded species in the world’s oceans and tropical forests, the most aggressive claims rest on shaky foundations.
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CNN report buries this good news in paragraph 12 on polar bears: ‘They are doing quite well…Svalbard’s polar bear numbers do not appear to have decreased in the last 20 years’
CNN: Jon Aars, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Polar Institute: "Polar bears are optimistic animals," Aars says. "It seems that they are quite resistant, and they are doing quite well despite the fact that they've lost a lot of their habitat." Despite the odds, Svalbard's polar bear numbers do not appear to have decreased in the last 20 years, he says.
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Statistical politics: Prof. Mike Hulme on ‘politically charged’ climate baseline changes from 1961-1990 to 1991-2020: ‘In an instant; today, the world’s climate has ‘suddenly’ become nearly 0.5°C warmer’
Hulme: "January 12021, a new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) climatological standard normal came into effect. The ‘present-day’ climate will now formally be
represented by the meteorological statistics of the period 1991-2020, replacing those from 1961-1990. National Meteorological Agencies in member states are instructed to issue new standard normals for observing stations and for associated climatological products. Climate will ‘change’, one might say, in an instant; today, the world’s climate has ‘suddenly’ become nearly 0.5°C warmer. It is somewhat equivalent to re-setting Universal Time or adjusting the exact definition of a metre." ..."So, what is the significance of the move to a new 1991-2020 WMO normal in January 2021? On the one hand, it is a pragmatic move to redefine ‘present-day’ climate for operational applications to that of the most recent 30-year period. On the other hand, it puts into play a third climatic baseline. Already existing is the ‘pre-industrial’ climate of the late nineteenth century and the ‘historic’ climate’ of 1961-1990, the latter about 0.3°C warmer than the former. And now there is the new ‘present-day’ climate of 1991-2020, in turn about 0.5°C warmer than the ‘historic climate’ of 1961-1990." ...
"Combining a climatic tolerance of 2°C—or indeed 1.5°C—with a pre-industrial baseline yields a very different climate target than, say, using a 1986-2005 baseline, the period widely adopted by IPCC AR5 Working Group I as their analytical baseline. The choices of both baseline and tolerance are politically charged. They carry significant implications for historic liability for emissions (La Rovere et al., 2002), for policy design (Millar et al., 2017) and for possible reparations (Roberts & Huq, 2015)."
