Warning labels on climate models for policymakers needed: The sticker should read: “WARNING! This model predicts atmospheric warming roughly 7 times larger than observed trends. Use of this model for anything other than entertainment purposes is not recommended.”
Bjorn Lomborg: "Everyone ran this story, but badly reported. 253 million people will *NOT* be at risk in 2100. The study assumes we rip out all coastal defenses — absurdly unrealistic. With realistic assumptions, numbers at least 100-1000 lower."
Lomborg continued: "Central quote: Only true if 'no dykes or sea walls in place.' Great for scary stories, bad for informing policy."
"How is it relevant for mayor of New York or Jakarta to know what happens if humanity rips out all dikes and sea walls?" he asked.
"Is this making us well-informed, or just scared?"
"If you want to understand the kind of damage that climate change will inflict, look at COVID-19 and spread the pain out over a much longer period of time," the Microsoft co-founder wrote on his blog Tuesday.
"The loss of life and economic misery caused by this pandemic are on par with what will happen regularly if we do not eliminate the world’s carbon emissions."
Such a fall would remove some of the projected strain on natural resources but would present governments with stark policy choices over migration and the economy. The world’s population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and decline to 8.8 billion by the end of the century, according to research led by the University of Washington in the US and published in the Lancet. It says some countries, including Japan, Spain and Italy, will see their populations halve, while sub-Saharan Africa’s population will triple in the next 80 years. ...
The number of older people will overtake the young, with 2.4 billion people over the age of 65 forecast by 2100, compared with 1.7 billion under the age of 20. The major factors in shrinking the population are widening access to contraception and improvements in educating women and girls. If those trends are curtailed, higher growth will ensue.