Links tagged “models”
- Climate policy ‘has died’: An autopsy of the climate policy debate’s corpse – ‘Climate activists are decisively winning…the science no longer matters’
"Bottom line: the climate activists are decisively winning. The science no longer matters in the public policy debate. Activists have moved beyond it and the major science institutions no longer defend it against the activists’ exaggerations and misrepresentations. There are rumors are that the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report will break with the past and fully embrace the hysteria. Meanwhile, skeptics are talking to themselves, like characters in Alice in Wonderland – vocal but effectively locked out of the news media."
- Climate Science does about-face, dials back ‘worst-case scenario’
- The Folly of Global Climate Forecasting
- How the Media Corrupted Climate Policy – Worst-case scenarios now dominate the debate
- Watch: Morano on China TV debating electric cars
- Analysis: ‘Global Warming’s 50 Years of Fraud’
- Climate confusion: worst carbon emissions model scenario ‘misleading’
- IPCC’s CO2 projections ‘turned out to be too high’
- Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: Will Humanity Ever Reach 2X CO2? Possibly Not
Update: Corrected RCP Scenario Removal Fractions
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Dr. Roy Spencer: "Given the latest projections of CO2 emissions, future CO2 concentrations will not only be well below the RCP8.5 scenario, but might not even be as high as RCP4.5, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations possibly not even reach a doubling (560 ppm) of estimated pre-Industrial levels (280 ppm) before leveling off. This result is even without future reductions in CO2 emissions, which is a possibility as new energy technologies become available.
I think this is at least as important an issue to discuss as the implausibility (impossibility?) of the RCP8.5 scenario. And it raises the question of just how good the carbon cycle models are that the UN IPCC depends upon to translate anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 observations."
- BBC: Climate change: Worst emissions scenario ‘exceedingly unlikely’ – ‘Misusing the worst climate change scenario’
The worst-case scenario for emissions of CO2 this century is no longer plausible, say researchers. Referred to as "business as usual", the scenario assumes a 500% increase in the use of coal, which is now considered unlikely...
RCP8.5 was first developed by energy researchers to help with their modelling. According to the authors of this paper, they didn't do a good job of communicating the limitations of this approach to climate scientists who wanted to use it to see what would happen with temperatures. Rather than being seen as something that only had a 3% chance of becoming reality, it became known as the "business-as-usual" scenario, by climate scientists and has been used in more than 2,000 research papers since. "What we're arguing is that we've been misusing the worst climate change scenario," said author Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute in California...
"So what originally was a sort of worst-case (scenario) with less than 10% chance of happening is today, exceedingly unlikely."
