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More UN climate summit hype: Nine climate tipping points now ‘active,’ warn scientists

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191127161418.htm University of Exeter Summary: More than half of the climate tipping points identified a decade ago are now ‘active,’ a group of leading scientists have warned. Share: FULL STORY More than half of the climate tipping points identified a decade ago are now “active,” a group of leading scientists have warned. This threatens the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the great ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, which are currently undergoing measurable and unprecedented changes much earlier than expected. This “cascade” of changes sparked by global warming could threaten the existence of human civilisations. Evidence is mounting that these events are more likely and more interconnected than was previously thought, leading to a possible domino effect. In an article in the journal Nature, the scientists call for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent key tipping points, warning of a worst-case scenario of a “hothouse,” less habitable planet. “A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated,” said lead author Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. “The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response.” Co-author Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: “It is not only human pressures on Earth that continue rising to unprecedented levels. “It is also that as science advances, we must admit that we have underestimated the risks of unleashing irreversible changes, where the planet self-amplifies global warming. “This is what we now start seeing, already at 1°C global warming. “Scientifically, this provides strong evidence for declaring a state of planetary emergency, to unleash world action that accelerates the path towards a world that can continue evolving on a stable planet.” In the commentary, the authors propose a formal way to calculate a planetary emergency as risk multiplied by urgency. Tipping point risks are now much higher than earlier estimates, while urgency relates to how fast it takes to act to reduce risk. Exiting the fossil fuel economy is unlikely before 2050, but with temperature already at 1.1°C above pre-industrial temperature, it is likely Earth will cross the 1.5°C guardrail by 2040. The authors conclude this alone defines an emergency. Nine active tipping points: Arctic sea ice Greenland ice sheet Boreal forests Permafrost Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Amazon rainforest Warm-water corals West Antarctic Ice Sheet Parts of East Antarctica The collapse of major ice sheets on Greenland, West Antarctica and part of East Antarctica would commit the world to around 10 metres of irreversible sea-level rise.

Leading German Geologist Calls Notion Of ‘Climate Tipping Points’ Scientific Hype By Opportunistic Scientists

http://notrickszone.com/2019/02/05/leading-german-geologist-calls-notion-of-climate-tipping-points-scientific-hype-by-opportunistic-scientists/ P Gosselin The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) posted a video of prominent German geologist Dr. Stefan Kröpelin, who in a presentation late last year in Munich called the notion of CO2-induced climate tipping points scientifically outlandish. He also called the prospect of the Sahara spreading into Europe preposterous. EIKE recently wrote an article on the presentation and posted the presentation (in German). The article follows in English (headings added): ========================================== The Green Past of the Sahara Stefan Kröpelin geographer and geologist who, after his training at the Free University of Berlin, has been working at the Institute for Prehistory and Early History in Cologne since 1995. He is one of the most renowned expedition researchers in the field of “Climate, Cultural, and Landscape Change in Arid Africa,” and is best known for his scientific travels to Sudan and Chad. In his career he has undertaken about 60 expeditions, which have been presented in numerous popular science TV programs. Sahara once a paradise In his lecture, Dr. Kröpelin first gave an overview of the Eastern Sahara located in Sudan, Chad, Libya and Egypt. The region is the driest place on planet Earth today. But thanks to natural climate change over the millennia, this has not always been the case. On the contrary: if you think of the Hungarian researcher László Almásy, known from the book and film “The English Patient”, who discovered “swimmers” on cave paintings in Eastern Sahara as early as the 1930s, you know that the area was once a paradise. Explorer Kröpelin was able to confirm Almásy’s assumptions through his work – and even add an almost unbelievable fact. Higher temperatures 7500 years ago The paradisiacal humid conditions in the east of the Sahara prevailed between about 8,500 and 5,300 B.C., i.e. after the last Ice Age and at the beginning of the Neolithic, when higher temperatures led to frequent rainfalls, and thus raised the groundwater level considerably, and allowed surface waters and rich vegetation. As a result of the gradual drying up of the region over the last 7,000 years, the human inhabitants migrated south to present-day Sudan or later to Egypt, where they founded the Earth’s first advanced culture on the Nile with its fertile floods. Video of Dr. Stefan’s lecture on the slow drying up of the Sahara on the occasion of the 12th IKEK in Düsseldorf in November, 2018 Cooling means a drying Sahara The slow drying out of the Sahara was caused by a successive cooling of the climate, analogous to the formation of savannahs through warming. Interestingly, today’s Sahara desert does not have the dimensions it had during the maximum of the last ice age about 20,000 years ago. At that time, the desert extended hundreds of kilometres further south into today’s Sahel zone. Lake sediment, cave paintings unlock secrets of the past How could Dr. Kröpelin reconstruct climate events in North Africa over the millennia? What natural climate indicators does the region offer? One of the best sources of climate data are the deposits at the bottom of the largest lake in the Sahara, Lake Yoa in the oasis of Ounianga in north-eastern Chad, from which as much water evaporates every day as the city of Cologne consumes every day. The loss is compensated by the abundant fossil groundwater resources. But it is not only hidden data deep in the ground that are suitable for precisely reconstructing the past of the climate in the last decades – the human settlement of the region and its legacies are also a reliable climate indicator. Particularly impressive in this context are the aforementioned cave paintings, which were able to withstand the sandstorms and the heat surprisingly well. These prehistoric works of art were not made in a short time, but over thousands of years. The depicted objects like the floating people or cattle herds stand for different phases of the colonization. “Tipping Point” catastrophe theory contradicted The proven gradualness of climate change at that time contradicts the “Tipping Point” catastrophe theory, which predicts a “climate collapse” with drastic changes in the environment in only one human generation. In fact, Kröpelin’s research shows that climate change in the Sahara has been so slow that people have hardly noticed anything about it during their lifetime. Stefan Kröpelin also refers in this context to the political use of the current climate catastrophe theory, which is even misused for mass immigration policy. The exponential increase in the world population over the next 50 years is the real problem facing our civilization. A Sahara reconstructed timeline follows: Cropped from video here posted above. EIKE

Earth ‘serially doomed’: The official history of climate ‘Tipping Points’ began in 1864 – A new ‘global warming’ 12-year deadline from Rep. Ocasio-Cortez

Here we go again. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has declared a 12-year climate “tipping point” in which we have to act in order to fight “global warming.” See: Ocasio-Cortez on Millennials: ‘We’re Like the World Is Going to End in 12 Years if We Don’t Address Climate Change’ Ocasio-Cortez is only the latest activist to join in the endless climate “tipping point” movement, joining former Vice President Al Gore, former President Barack Obama, UN leaders and Prince Charles. The new best selling and award-winning skeptical climate book that debunks the climate fear movement, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change, devotes an entire chapter to the long and silly history of climate tipping points, beginning in 1864! The following is an excerpt from author Marc Morano’s new best-selling book, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change. Book excerpt from The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change – Available at Amazon & Barnes & Noble & Walmart  (Listen & Read: Q&A with Morano on his book: ‘The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change’) Book Excerpt: CHAPTER 13 The Ever-Receding Tipping Point  Eighteen-Sixty-Four Tipping Point Warns of “Climatic Excess” “As early as 1864 George Perkins Marsh, sometimes said to be the father of American ecology, warned that the earth was ‘fast becoming an unfit home for its “noblest inhabitant,”’ and that unless men changed their ways it would be reduced ‘to such a condition of impoverished productiveness, of shattered surface, of climatic excess, as to threaten the depravation, barbarism, and perhaps even extinction of the species.’” —MIT professor Leo Marx George Perkins Marsh in his 1864 book: Man and Nature” – published in 1864: “The earth is fast becoming an unfit home for its noblest inhabitant, and another era of equal human crime and human improvidence … would reduce it to such a condition of impoverished productiveness, of shattered surface, of climatic excess, as to threaten the depravation, barbarism, and perhaps even extinction of the species.” George Perkins Marsh … New Lyrics to an Old Tune Newsweek magazine weighed in with its own tipping point: “The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.” That warning appeared in an April 28, 1975, article about global cooling! Same rhetoric, different eco-scare. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ Earth “Serially Doomed” Perhaps the best summary of the tipping-point phenomenon comes from UK scientist Philip Stott. “In essence, the Earth has been given a 10-year survival warning regularly for the last fifty or so years. We have been serially doomed,” Stott explained. “Our post-modern period of climate change angst can probably be traced back to the late-1960s, if not earlier. By 1973, and the ‘global cooling’ scare, it was in full swing, with predictions of the imminent collapse of the world within ten to twenty years, exacerbated by the impacts of a nuclear winter. … Comedians Penn & Teller explain how the tipping point works. Their segment on their TV show Bullshit! featuring global warming activist Ross Gelbspan is priceless: “Ross Gelbspan has asserted that ‘Unchecked, global warming will bankrupt the global economy by 2065.’” But Penn Jillette was having none of it: “Where did Gelbspan get that data, how did he choose that date of 2065? I will tell you how, this asshole figures he will be dead by then and not have to own up.” In 2016, just after President Donald Trump’s election, New York Times columnist Eduardo Porter wrote an article featuring the headline “Earth Isn’t Doomed Yet. The Climate Could Survive Trump.” It may be that the only authentic climate “tipping point” we can rely is this one, issued in 2007: New Zealand atmospheric scientist Augie Auer, former University of Wyoming professor of atmospheric science, said “We’re all going to survive this. It’s all going to be a joke in five years.” # End book excerpt # Climate Depot’s Full Report on history of Climate “Tipping Points” Earth ‘Serially Doomed’: UN Issues New 15 Year Climate Tipping Point – But UN Issued Tipping Points in 1982 & Another 10-Year Tipping Point in 1989! Climate Depot Factsheet on Inconvenient History of Global Warming ‘Tipping Points’ — Hours, Days, Months, Years, Millennium — Earth ‘Serially Doomed’ It’s difficult to keep up whether it is hours, days, months or 1000 years. Here are few recent examples of others predicting “tipping points” of various duration. HOURS: Flashback March 2009: ‘We have hours’ to prevent climate disaster — Declares Elizabeth May of Canadian Green Party Days: Flashback Oct. 2009: UK’s Gordon Brown warns of global warming ‘catastrophe’; Only ’50 days to save world’ Months: Prince Charles claimed a 96-month tipping point in July 2009 Years: 2009: NASA’s James Hansen Declared Obama Only First Term to Save The Planet! — ‘On Jan. 17, 2009 Hansen declared Obama only ‘has four years to save Earth’ or Flashback Oct .2009: WWF: ‘Five years to save world’ Decades: 1982: UN official Mostafa Tolba, executive director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP), warned on May 11, 1982, the ‘world faces an ecological disaster as final as nuclear war within a couple of decades unless governments act now.’ Millennium: Flashback June 2010: 1000 years delay: Green Guru James Lovelock: Climate change may not happen as fast as we thought, and we may have 1,000 years to sort it out’ It is becoming obvious that the only authentic climate “tipping point” we can rely is this one: Flashback 2007: New Zealand Scientist on Global Warming: ‘It’s All Going to be a Joke in 5 Years’ According to the Boston Globe, the United Nations has issued a new climate “tipping point” by which the world must act to avoid dangerous global warming. The Boston Globe noted on April 16, 2014: “The world now has a rough deadline for action on climate change. Nations need to take aggressive action in the next 15 years to cut carbon emissions, in order to forestall the worst effects of global warming, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” Once again, the world is being warned of an ecological or climate “tipping point” by the UN. As early as 1982, the UN was issuing a two decade tipping point. UN official Mostafa Tolba, executive director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP), warned on May 11, 1982, the “world faces an ecological disaster as final as nuclear war within a couple of decades unless governments act now.” According to Tolba in 1982, lack of action would bring “by the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust.” In 1989, the UN was once again trying to sell their “tipping point” rhetoric to the public. See: U.N. Warning of 10-Year ‘Climate Tipping Point’ Began in 1989 – Excerpt: According to July 5, 1989, article in the Miami Herald, the then-director of the New York office of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Noel Brown, warned of a “10-year window of opportunity to solve” global warming. According to the 1989 article, “A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos.” (LINK) & (LINK)   It’s all so confusing. In 2007, UN IPCC chief Pachauri declared 2012 as the climate deadline to act or it would be “too late.” See: Celebrate! UN IPCC Chairman Pachauri: It’s Too Late to Fight Climate Change! — Pachauri in 2007: ‘If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment’ Not to be outdone by the UN, Former Irish President Mary Robinson weighed in this week, issuing a more generous 20 year tipping point. “Former president says we have 20 years to save the world from climate change effects…Robinson calls for climate agreement by 2015.” Robinson noted that global leaders have “at most two decades to save the world”. Not to be left out, NASA got in the climate tipping point act in 2009. See: NASA’s James Hansen Declared Obama Only First Term to Save The Planet! — ‘On Jan. 17, 2009 Hansen declared Obama only ‘has four years to save Earth’ Watch Now: Morano rips NASA’s James Hansen: ‘Hansen said we only have 4 years left to save the planet in Jan.2009, We passed another Mayan calendar deadline’ But in 2012, the UN gave Obama and planet Earth another four year reprieve. See: Tipping points extended again: UN Foundation Pres. Warmist Tim Wirth: 2012 is Obama’s ‘last window of opportunity’ to get it right on climate change Former Vice President Al Gore also created a 10 year climate tipping point in 2006: See: Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer Mocks Gore for issuing 10-year tipping point in 2006: Al Gore’s 10-year climate warning – Only 2 years left & still no global warming – Spencer: ‘Gore told us in January 2006 that we had only 10 years left to solve the global warming problem’ – ‘In the grand tradition of prophets of doom, his prognostication is not shaping up too well…still no statistically significant warming’ Then, Michael Mann weighed in with his 2036 Mayan calendar type deadline. See: 2036 is the new 2012?! UN Scientist Michael Mann starts his own Mayan Calendar deadline: ‘Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036′ Other global warming activists chose 2047 as the key date. See: Global warming activist scientists may not be the first to proclaim a doomsday year of 2047 as the end of time! — 2047 is the new 2012 — but global warming activists were beaten to Armageddon! — A Climate Depot analysis has uncovered that 2047 has long been seen as a successor to 2012 as an apocalyptic date. Finding no date agreement, 20 governments chose 2030 as the scary deadline: See: Skeptics Repent! We are all doomed! Report: More than 100 million people will die by 2030 if world fails to act on climate — Reuters: ‘More than 100 million people will die and global economic growth will be cut by 3.2% of GDP by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday. As global avg. temps rise due to ghg emissions, the effects on planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather, drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and livelihoods, said the report conducted by humanitarian organisation DARA’ The tipping point rhetoric seems to have exploded after 2002. See: Tipping Points In Env. Rhetoric: An Unscientific Survey of Nexis: After June 2002, news media’s use of tipping point in the context of global warming and climate change exploded’ — ‘Between June 2002 and June 2005 – CC: 262; GW: 303. Between June 2005 and June 2008 – CC: more than 3,000; GW: more than 3,000* Between June 2008 and June 2011 – CC: more than 3,000; GW: 2903 Between June 2011 and June 2012 – CC: 1,348; GW; 637 Of course, the problem with tipping points is that they can never be proven wrong; only right in retrospect. And that, of course, makes citing them a wonderful rhetorical device for doomsayers’ UNEP Warns of New ‘Tipping Points’ Being Reached — ’20-30 years into future…far enough away that it can be forgotten when date approaches & Armageddon hasn’t yet arrived on schedule’ Perhaps the best explanation of tipping points comes from UK scientist Philip Stott. See: UK Scientist Philip Stott ridiculed “tipping point” claims in 2007. “In essence, the Earth has been given a 10-year survival warning regularly for the last fifty or so years. We have been serially doomed. […] Our post-modern period of climate change angst can probably be traced back to the late-1960s, if not earlier. By 1973, and the ‘global cooling’ scare, it was in full swing, with predictions of the imminent collapse of the world within ten to twenty years, exacerbated by the impacts of a nuclear winter. Environmentalists were warning that, by the year 2000, the population of the US would have fallen to only 22 million [the 2007 population estimate is 302,824,000]. […] In 1987, the scare abruptly changed to ‘global warming’, and the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was established (1988), issuing its first assessment report in 1990, which served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).” Inconvenient History of Climate ‘Tipping Point’ Warnings UK’s Top Scientist Sir David King in 2004: ‘Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked’ NASA scientist James Hansen has been warning of a “tipping point” for years now. See: Earth’s Climate Approaches Dangerous Tipping Point – June 1, 2007 – Excerpt: A stern warning that global warming is nearing an irreversible tipping point was issued today” by James Hansen. Former Vice President Al Gore invented his own “tipping point” clock a few years ago. Excerpt: Former Vice-President Al Gore came to Washington on July 17, 2008, to deliver yet another speech warning of the “climate crisis.” “The leading experts predict that we have less than 10 years to make dramatic changes in our global warming pollution lest we lose our ability to ever recover from this environmental crisis,” Gore stated. Prince Charles claimed a 96-month tipping point in July 2009. Excerpt: The heir to the throne told an audience of industrialists and environmentalists at St James’s Palace last night that he had calculated that we have just 96 months left to save the world. And in a searing indictment on capitalist society, Charles said we can no longer afford consumerism and that the “age of convenience” was over. Get ready, we only have 190 years! Scientists ‘expect climate tipping point’ by 2200 – UK Independent – June 28, 2010 – Excerpt: “13 of the 14 experts said that the probability of reaching a tipping point (by 2200) was greater than 50 per cent, and 10 said that the chances were 75 per cent or more.” ‘World has only ten years to control global warming, warns Met Office – UK Telegraph – November 15, 2009 — Excerpt: Pollution needs to be brought under control within ten years to stop runaway climate change, according to the latest Met Office predictions. […] “To limit global mean temperature [increases] to below 2C, implied emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere at the end of the century fall close to zero in most cases.” In 2013, the UN extended the deadline again. See: Earth Gets 15 Year Reprieve From Climate Doom?!: UN in 1989: World has a ’10-year window of opportunity to solve’ global warming — Now in 2013: ‘UN needs global warming answer by 2015′ – New date is the latest in a long history of flexible global warming deadlines The UN chief Ban Ki-moon further shortened the “tipping point” in August 2009, when he warned of ‘incalculable’ suffering without climate deal in December 2009! Newsweek magazine waded into the tipping point claims as well. Newsweek wrote: “The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.” But, Newsweek’s “tipping point” quote appeared in a April 28, 1975 article about global cooling! Same rhetoric, different eco-scare. For an explanation of why climate fear promoters are failing to convince the public, see: MIT Climate Scientist: ‘Ordinary people see through man-made climate fears — but educated people are very vulnerable’ – July 6, 2009] More Related Links: Countdown to Disaster: Flashback 2009: ‘We’ve got 5 years to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett’ French Foreign Minister issues new tripping point: ’500 Days to Avoid Climate Chaos’ – Laurent Fabius: ‘We have 500 days to avoid climate chaos. And I know that President Obama and John Kerry himself are committed on this subject and I’m sure that with them, with a lot of other friends, we shall be able to reach success on this very important matter.’ – France is scheduled to host the “21st Conference of the Parties on Climate Change” in December 2015, about 565 days from now. Warmists Prep for UN Summit: ‘World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns’: ‘The world will ‘lose for ever’ the chance to avoid dangerous climate change’ — ‘The door is closing,” Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency…Every month now counts: if the world is to stay below 2C of warming’ UK greenie George Monbiot 2002 warned we only had 10 years! ‘Famine can only be avoided if the rich give up meat, fish and dairy’— Monbiot on December 24, 2002: ‘Within as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both’ 1924: Top Scientists Say That Earth Is Doomed (April 16, 1924) – ‘It is the firmest conviction of a group of serious scientists of established reputation, who have devoted their lives to a dispassionate and careful examination of geological and astronomical evidence. This group includes such investigators as Dr. Max Valier, of Munich. Engineer Hanne Hoerbiger, of Vienna, Dr. Voigt, of Berlin; and Professor F. Queisser. of Prague’ New Ecology Paper Challenges ‘Tipping Point’ Meme Analysis: ‘Al Gore’s 10-Year ‘Scorching’ Prophesy Emerging As A Grand Hoax…Global Temperatures Declined Over Last Decade’ Gore Losing: No cause for alarm at 5-year mid-point of Armstrong-Gore climate ‘bet’ — ‘Gore should be pleased to find concerns about a ‘tipping point’ have turned out to be unfounded’ – ‘The latest global temperature is exactly where it was at the beginning of the ‘bet’ — ‘The IPCC’s forecasting procedures have been found to violate 72 of the 89 relevant principles’ ALERT: Obama (& Planet Earth) Granted Last Minute Reprieve! Four years ago, the world’s greatest climatologist James Hansen gave Obama until Jan. 17, 2013 to save the planet’ Doomster Paul Ehrlich is back and just as wrong as ever! Remember when we all starved to death in the 1980s, just as I predicted? It might happen AGAIN! – Ehrlich: ‘We risk a global collapse of our civilization as we know it. Climate change is just one of our problems. We cannot avert calamity without tackling it and other pressing ecological concerns’ Flashback: ‘Accurate Tribute to Paul Ehrlich: ‘Mad…Kook…Lunatic…Disgraced…Worse than Hitler…fear-monger…parasite on Academic system’ UK Guardian: ’50 months to avoid climate disaster’ — ‘On a very conservative estimate, 50 months from now, the dice become loaded against us in terms of keeping under a 2C temp rise’ Forty Year Cycle Of Scientific Psychosis Discovered: ‘There appears to be a forty year cycle of mental illness in the scientific community’ — ‘This is what they were saying in 1970’: ‘Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind; — George Wald, Harvard Biologist — ‘We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.’ — Barry Commoner, Wash. U biologist’ MIT to Obama: Only 4 years left to stop global warming: ‘It is quite possible that if this is not done over the next four years, it will be too late’ — MIT to Obama: ‘We can no longer pretend that addressing climate change will be without real costs’ — ‘You have the power and the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new clean-energy policy that will help us avoid the worst consequences of climate change,” said the letter, published in the MITTechnology Review’ Flashback 2007: Climatologist Dr. Michaels mocks ‘tipping points’: ‘We have to do something in 10 years — they have been saying that for two years. Why don’t they at least subtract 2 and make it 8?’ Another Atmospheric Scientist Dissents: Calls fears of CO2 tipping point ‘alarmist, ludicrous, and totally without foundation’ – July 13, 2009 – ‘Over geologic time there has been 15 to 25 times more CO2 than current concentrations’ Media Tipping Point! Houston Chronicle Reporter Reconsiders Science is ‘Settled’ Claims! ‘I am confused. 4 years ago this all seemed like a fait accompli’ – September 6, 2009 Antarctic Tipping Point? ‘If we don’t act soon, the planet will become a barren ball of ice and snow’ – October 2, 2009 – ‘5 of the 6 years with the greatest Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent have occurred in just the last decade’ 2007 – GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM REACHES A TIPPING POINT – October 26, 2007 Climate Depot’s Morano on new alarmist National Academy of Sciences’ climate ‘tipping point’ study: It ‘openly shills for more climate funding for its members’ — Morano: ‘The organization [NAS] is virtually 100% dependent on government funding. So when they do a study like this – and they’ve done other studies in the past – you know the outcome of these studies before they do them. The actual funding quote from new study is: ‘The sudden changes in the climate is full of uncertainties. The world can prepare by better monitoring,’ Morano offers. ‘And it goes on [to say that] because of budget cuts and aging satellites, we have fewer measurements than we did a few years ago.’ – ‘When the NAS is advocating for a carbon tax, it’s not too surprising that all [their] reports are going to fall in line.’ Former Greenpeace co-founder turned climate skeptic Dr. Patrick Moore calls NAS ‘tipping point’ study ‘pure junk’: ‘Low point for US National Academy of Science. Warns of ‘tipping points’ in climate like ‘drunk drivers’ AP’s Seth Borenstein: ‘FEDERAL STUDY WARNS OF SUDDEN CLIMATE CHANGE WOES’ See: NAS Corrupted Warmist Ralph Cicerone: Turned Org. into political advocacy group: $6 million NAS study used to lobby for climate bill Flashback: MIT’s Lindzen Slams: ‘Ralph Cicerone of NAS/NRC is saying that regardless of evidence the answer is predetermined. If gov’t wants carbon control, that is the answer that the Academies will provide’ Cicerone’s Shame: NAS Urges Carbon Tax, Becomes Advocacy Group — ‘political appointees heading politicized scientific institutions that are virtually 100% dependent on gov’t funding’ Wash Times Features Climate Depot: ‘The global-warming apocalypses that didn’t happen’ – ‘You can find most of these and many more quotes on the Climate Depot website, collected by Marc Morano, illustrating how little the experts really know about climate change.’

FAILED TIPPING POINTS: HISTORY KEEPS PROVING PROPHETS OF ECO-APOCALYPSE WRONG

Date: 20/09/16 Ivo Vegter, Daily Maverick The ability to make accurate predictions is a hallmark of good science. Predictions by environmental doom-mongers have proven to be wrong time and time again. No wonder most people no longer believe them. If we do not reverse global warming by the year 2000, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels”, warned Noel Brown, a director of the United Nations Environment Programme, in 1989. It is common cause that sea levels have been rising ever since the start of the Holocene at the end of the last Ice Age, about 11,700 years ago. Throughout the 20th century, tide gauge data has shown this rise to be fairly steady at about 1.5mm/year, and largely unaffected by changes in temperature or atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has determined a fairly constant sea level rise of just over 3mm/year. However, it is far from clear whether this represents an acceleration or an artefact of how sea level is measured with respect to surrounding land. A 2016 paper by Australian scientists Albert Parker and Cliff Ollier suggests that the altimetry record suffers from errors larger than its trends, and “returns a noisy signal so that a +3.2 mm/year trend is only achieved by arbitrary ‘corrections’”. “We conclude that if the sea levels are only oscillating about constant trends everywhere as suggested by the tide gauges, then the effects of climate change are negligible,” they write, “and the local patterns may be used for local coastal planning without any need of purely speculative global trends based on emission scenarios. Ocean and coastal management should acknowledge all these facts. As the relative rates of rises are stable worldwide, coastal protection should be introduced only where the rate of rise of sea levels as determined from historical data show a tangible short term threat. As the first signs the sea levels will rise catastrophically within a few years are nowhere to be seen, people should start really thinking about the warnings not to demolish everything for a case nobody knows will indeed happen.” Clearly, history proved Noel Brown wrong. In 2002, George Monbiot urged the rich to give up meat, fish and dairy, writing: “Within as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.” In 2002, 908-million people worldwide suffered hunger. Ten years later, that number had declined to 805-million, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation. Because of continued population growth, this nominal decrease represents a much larger decline in the prevalence of undernourishment, from 18.2% of the world’s population in 2002 to 14.1% in 2012. Hunger remains steadily on the decline. Famines, once so common, are rare nowadays. Clearly, history proved George Monbiot wrong. In 2008, the US television channel ABC promoted an apocalyptic “documentary” called Earth 2100, hosted by Bob Woodruff. The film cites a host of scientists, including such perennial alarmists as James Hansen, formerly head of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Science, and John Holdren, the US science czar who in the 1970s thought population control might be necessary to ward off mass starvation (see Prophets of doom in high places). The show depicts the world at various times in the future, leading up to a collapse of civilisation “within this century, and perhaps your lifetime”. By 2015, it said, agricultural production would be dropping because of rising temperatures and the number of malnourished people “just continually grows”. We’ve already seen that the latter prediction proved to be false. Agricultural output also remains on a strong upward trend worldwide, and most of that is because of rising productivity, and not a rise in land use, irrigation, labour or other capital inputs. A carton of milk would cost $12.99 by 2015, the film said, and a gallon of fuel would cost over $9. In reality, milk cost $3.39 and fuel cost $2.75 in 2015. Much of New York and surroundings would be inundated by rising sea levels, they said. Below is their 2008 map, and a current satellite view of New York from Google Maps. I’m no aerial surveillance analyst, but I don’t see any evidence that half of New York is under water. Clearly, history proved Bob Woodruff and his famous scientific sources wrong. […] The ability to make accurate predictions is a hallmark of good science. Conversely, making false predictions implies either that a statement is not based on science, or that it is based on bad science. So why is it that we continue to believe environmental doom-mongers, even though history has proven them wrong time and time again? Oh, wait. It turns out we don’t believe them. Almost 10-million voters in a huge United Nations poll have ranked climate action dead last out of 16 concerns – below even the phone and internet access that all respondents would have enjoyed anyway if they were able to complete the online poll. Those are the fruits of constant, shrill, exaggerated alarmism. Get proven wrong by history often enough, and four out of five ordinary people will stop believing you. And good for them, too. Perhaps environmentalists should mind the environment instead of trying to rule the world. # Earth ‘Serially Doomed’: UN Issues New 15 Year Climate Tipping Point – But UN Issued Tipping Points in 1982 & Another 10-Year Tipping Point in 1989! Climate Depot Factsheet on Inconvenient History of Global Warming ‘Tipping Points’ — Hours, Days, Months, Years, Millennium — Earth ‘Serially Doomed’ It’s difficult to keep up whether it is hours, days, months or 1000 years. Here are few recent examples of others predicting “tipping points” of various duration. HOURS: Flashback March 2009: ‘We have hours’ to prevent climate disaster — Declares Elizabeth May of Canadian Green Party Days: Flashback Oct. 2009: UK’s Gordon Brown warns of global warming ‘catastrophe’; Only ’50 days to save world’ Months: Prince Charles claimed a 96-month tipping point in July 2009 Years: 2009: NASA’s James Hansen Declared Obama Only First Term to Save The Planet! — ‘On Jan. 17, 2009 Hansen declared Obama only ‘has four years to save Earth’ or Flashback Oct .2009: WWF: ‘Five years to save world’ Decades: 1982: UN official Mostafa Tolba, executive director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP), warned on May 11, 1982, the ‘world faces an ecological disaster as final as nuclear war within a couple of decades unless governments act now.’ Millennium: Flashback June 2010: 1000 years delay: Green Guru James Lovelock: Climate change may not happen as fast as we thought, and we may have 1,000 years to sort it out’ It is becoming obvious that the only authentic climate “tipping point” we can rely is this one: Flashback 2007: New Zealand Scientist on Global Warming: ‘It’s All Going to be a Joke in 5 Years’

Tipping Points Postponed Again: Arctic Sea Ice Refuses To Melt – No Real Shrinking In 10 Years

Japanese climate blogger Kirye caught my eye here at Twitter when posting a comparator chart of Arctic sea ice extent (and thickness) for 2007, 2015 and this year (2016) for September 4. In a nutshell, what is all the alarm about? She comments that “Arctic ice is not doomed in the real world.” Clearly Arctic sea ice this summer will most likely not set a new record. There’s far more ice up there then what global warming alarmists hysterically projected earlier. Also a recent chart of Arctic sea ice extent by the National Snow Ice and Data Center (NSIDC) shows that current sea ice extent is some half a million square kilometers over the 2012 level: Source: NSIDC Clearly over the past years Arctic sea ice has refused to have anything to do with the often claimed “death spiral” and alarmists are always forced to go back a number of years in order to get the sharp downward overall trend they want to see. Lately, however, it has not been downward at all. No downward trend over past decade Looking back at the past 10 years, we see there has been practically no downward trend whatsoever. A chart generated at Woodfortrees here for the past 10 years clearly illustrates this: No melt in 10 years! Chart: Woodfortrees Clearly the Arctic is nowhere near a death spiral, and the polar ice has in fact defied the models and the many earlier predictions that it would disappear by 2015 altogether. With all that ice still up there, it’s time for the sea ice and global warming modelers to discard their equations – and to start over again from scratch. With millions of square kilometers of ice still up there reflecting summer radiation back into space, it’s time readjust the energy budget. Tipping points postponed again!

Al Gore flip-flops on end-of-world climate ‘tipping points’ ahead of elections

http://www.examiner.com/article/al-gore-flip-flops-on-end-of-world-tipping-points-ahead-of-elections Gore said we only have two years left to save the planet and to convince people of global warming’s imminent threat. … Since 2006, when his movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ hit the film circuit, Al Gore has been making these end-is-nigh proclamations. He said the Arctic would be ice free by 2014. He got that wrong. He had so many scientific errors in his documentary, a UK judge forbade it from being shown in British schools without “guidance notes to prevent political indoctrination.” That may be why in Manila he showed an “updated version” of his film. He also notes the Philippines (like the rest of the world) are “still dependent on fossil fuels,” what he believes is responsible for any changes in the climate.

Global warming ‘tipping points’ identified

http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/science/global-warming-tipping-points-identified/152560/   They found evidence of 41 cases of regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost and terrestrial biosphere. Many of these events occur for global warming levels of less than two degrees, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. However, although most models predict one or more abrupt regional shifts, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. “This illustrates the high uncertainty in predicting tipping points,” said lead author Professor Sybren Drijfhout from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton. “More precisely, our results show that the different state-of-the-art models agree that abrupt changes are likely, but that predicting when and where they will occur remains very difficult. “Also, our results show that no safe limit exists and that many abrupt shifts already occur for global warming levels much lower than two degrees,” he added. Examples of detected climate tipping include abrupt shifts in sea ice and ocean circulation patterns, as well as abrupt shifts in vegetation and marine productivity. Sea ice abrupt changes were particularly common in the climate simulations.

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