Pielke Jr.: "There is an interesting investigative journalism project to be done on the revolving door between climate science & policy and private sector climate services. Just as one example, John Kerry's predecessor as 'climate envoy' co-founded a consulting firm that feeds off of RCP8.5. Absolutely fascinating how climate scenarios (RCPs, SSPs & their derivatives) are enabling entirely new markets for consulting based on financial risk assessments of fictional futures.
It is also amazing how much money is being paid to explore these outdated, fictional futures...
Here is a cozy eco-system:
Former gov't officials Scientists w/ specialized knowledge Venture capital Energy companies Current federal policymaking
Has always been so. But it is interesting how these dynamics promote implausible scenarios & keep bad science going."
A 2021 paper published in Science concluded [since 1982], worldwide, “To date, there has been no firm evidence of global trends of the frequency of tropical cyclones with maximum wind speed above the hurricane-force wind (64 knots) at landfall.”
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.: "But what happens when we take a look further back in time? ... Overall, 2020 was not an usually busy year on planet Earth for hurricanes. The figure below (via @RyanMaue) shows that 2020 had 44 total hurricanes, of which 21 reached major storm strength (technically, Category 3 or greater on the Saffir/Simpson Scale). According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University, since 1980 the most hurricanes observed globally in one calendar year was 59 in 1992 (major = 38 in 2015) and the least was 38 in 2009 (major = 15 in 1981)."
"Our latest update of global hurricane landfalls...shows landfalls for the 51 years 1970 to 2020. With 23 total landfalls, 2020 saw the most hurricane strikes since 2007, and the third most since 1970. The large number of 2020 landfalls was in part to the very busy North Atlantic hurricane season, which saw 9 total landfalls. The North Atlantic averaged 2.5 landfalls per year 1970 to 2019." ...
"With a longer-term perspective, we see a very different pattern in landfalling hurricanes than we do starting an analysis in 1970. The 1970s and early 1980s have long been understood to represent a period with lower tropical cyclone activity than before or since. That means that any analysis of trends starting from this period will likely show upwards trends, but that such trends need to be interpreted very carefully."
Pielke Jr.: "How anyone can get away with looking at 29 years of economic data to make claims of attribution is beyond me...At the same time the dramatic reduction in flood losses as a proportion of GDP is a major policy success of the past century...More precip, by itself, means neither more flooding nor more damage."
But Bjorn Lomborg rebuts: "Tremendously misleading. The number of billion-dollar disasters will of course increase as society gets richer. When corrected for increased wealth, the world and the US are not seeing increasing damages (but insignificantly *decreasing* damages)." - "Despite breathless climate reporting, the relative cost of global weather catastrophes 1990-2020 not increasing (actually insignificantly decreasing)."
Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: "NOAA is a great agency & contributes massively to saving life and property. It is thus so embarrassing that they dabble in bad economics for media catnip and clicks. Everything you hear about 'billion $ disasters' is wrong."
Kerry Emanuel claims: "Economic damage, normalized by world domestic product... from weather-related natural disasters have been increasing greatly."
Dr. Pielke responds: "This is incontrovertibly false. Contrary to Emanuel's claims, this metric is not "increasing greatly" (actually it is not even increasing)
"In fact, every study that has looked at global economic losses after normalization (for GDP or other factors) has consistently failed to identify any increase in losses at all."
Emanuel also writes: "There is strong and mounting evidence that climate change is increasing... the incidence of strong hurricanes."
Pielke Jr. responds: "Yet a recent WMO assessment polled its authors & concluded (image) no increase (so how can there be more disasters?)"
Kerry Emanuel has every right to his opinions, of course. But he should attend to his own factual accuracy before claiming (falsely) that "Michael Shellenberger's statement is not defensible" & "is patently false."
Pielke Jr.: "Zero, 0, no one defending KKOV20 I mean, I get it ..."
"Bottom line KKOV20 makes a great case study from start to finish. Science promotion. Hurricanes & climate (yay!). Media hype Gross misrepresentation. Questionable science. But that is why we publish ... to spark debate & discussion. And KKOV20 have certainly achieved that goal."