https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1613655211725455361?s=20&t=YA7fy_alIPG_psj38PMoHg&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Let me preface that I don't really have much of a view on whether Exxon should be driven out of business or whatever the aim is, I don't have a dog in that fight
I mean sure, go for it, then you gonna do Saudi Aramaco next?
But as a matter of science & policy, it is interesting
— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) January 12, 2023
My first reaction is that the selection of "ExxonMobil’s global warming projections" is kind of ridiculous
For instance, it includes IPCC projections (because an Exxon employee was a contributing author, along with 100s of others) & US DOE publications
Exxon's work?
Come on pic.twitter.com/XVA0WuR6XL— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) January 12, 2023
I can say that the forecast that gets the highest skill score "was a 1985 peer-reviewed publication [Hoffert and Flannery (1985, nominal CO2 scenario)], with a skill score of 99%"
That is shown below, the middle line is judged the most accurate
It is not
Source: My eyeballs pic.twitter.com/PCw3HM6Sd2— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) January 12, 2023
Further the most accurate "Exxon forecast" (of the US DOE) is based a 2023 CO2 concentration of ~450ppm (nominal scenario)
It is actually ~425ppm
That is … far off
Check for yourself: https://t.co/iXggU0ONGM pic.twitter.com/2qrM1YdfPJ
— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) January 12, 2023
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1613661738104389632
#
Background:
Mike Shellenberger, the President Breakthrough Institute, and a man who Time Magazine called ‘Hero of the Environment’: ‘The picture painted of Exxon seeking out & funding “climate change deniers” to mislead public & prevent climate policy is false.’
‘The picture painted by @insideclimate is that Exxon was paying people to lie about climate while acknowledging it privately…In reality, Exxon funded conservative think tanks that were mostly *not* “climate deniers” — & in many cases advocate climate policy!’
But it was always obvious from looking at who Exxon funded that vanishingly few people were “climate change deniers.” A vast Exxon conspiracy to deceive public about climate turns out to be… a lukewarmish NYT ad & sunspots research.’
‘EXXON-KNEW ACTIVIST’ NAOMI ORESKES ON RETAINER WITH PLAINTIFFS’ LAW FIRM
Oreskes has gone from planning the litigation campaign to becoming a full-on participant in these lawsuits, as CNN reports:
“The company said Naomi Oreskes, one of the main authors of the study, is on retainer with a law firm that is leading lawsuits against Exxon and others in the industry. Exxon called this a ‘blatant conflict of interest.’ Oreskes was not immediately available for comment.”
