https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/most-countries-have-already-passed
ROGER PIELKE JR.
What the countries past peak have in common, and what that tells us about the rest
Excerpt: Here is something that few people are aware of — per capita carbon dioxide emissions (pcCO2) from fossil fuels peaked globally in 2013 and have remained below that level ever since. The trend in pcCO2 is best characterized as a plateau, as shown in the figure below. In fact, in 2025 global pcCO2 was only 2.3% above 1979, even as world population increased by ~88% and total energy consumption doubled.
Today I am starting a new series on what we can learn about decarbonization and how it might progress into the future by looking closely at pc carbon dioxide emissions around the world, taking advantage of forthcoming data and tools at the new THB Decarbonization dashboard.
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Of the 78 countries tracked in the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy (2026), covering ~6.5 billion people, about 80% of the world population:
- 57 have already seen pcCO2 peak and decline (representing ~28% of world population and ~52% of global GDP),
- 9 have plateaued (~4% of population, 3.7% of GDP),
- and 12 are still rising (~47% of population, ~37% of GDP).
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This initial look at pcCO2 tells us several interesting things about conditions that are favorable for emissions reductions, which are required to hit targets for deep decarbonization:
- Wealth is a prerequisite;
- So too is a high level of energy consumption;
- Energy intensity and carbon intensity reductions combined must exceed growth in per capita GDP;
- Overall population growth is a secondary factor, if even that.
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Meantime, you can explore per capita carbon dioxide emissions at THB Decarbonization Around the World.
