Scientists Take Credit For Averting A Climate ‘Scenario’ That Was Never Plausible
by Roger Pielke Jr.
Excerpt:
When my son was 12 years old, he was four feet tall. By the time he was 16, he was five feet — growing a whole foot taller in just four years. Having a math degree, I felt like I should create a quantitative scenario of his future growth to ensure that everything was OK. [some emphasis, links added]
I quickly became alarmed. Based on my calculations, I estimated that he would be nine feet tall by age 28, growing at a rate of a foot every four years!
I spoke to a doctor, who said to make sure he got a balanced diet, good rest, and regular check-ups. We did all of these things, and they worked!
My son topped out at 6’ 2” and, thanks to my alarming growth scenario and quick intervention, the worst case was avoided — he did not grow to nine feet tall.
What is wrong with this story?
My original nine-foot-tall scenario was never plausible. The dynamics it describes are not how things work. So even though we took good care of my son, that is not the reason he did not grow to nine feet tall.
…
The scenario was implausible from the start, and my self-described heroic role in averting that scenario is an incorrect reading of that history.
