Well, that’s not great.
Dettmers says the “forces leading to a population drop are already in motion,” and he expects a decline in population in the next four decades. And don’t blame war, virus, or natural disaster—credit our illustrious living standards and shrinking birth rates.
“People are healthier, richer, better educated, living longer, and having fewer children,” Dettmers says. “But this decrease in humanity is not a reason to cheer, but rather a looming disaster for our economy. The great labor shortage caused by the declining population will cripple our global economy unless we find innovative ways to keep things running.”
While a declining population may offer encouraging signs for those concerned about overcrowding draining the world’s resources, Dettmers says that the dropping birth rate—with the sharpest declines coming in the richest societies—means that there won’t be enough young workers to support that increased living standard.
He conservatively expects the global population to decrease by one billion people from its peak by the end of this century based on research from the Gates Foundation, and adds that working populations in Italy, Spain, and Greece will drop by more than half while Poland, Portugal, Romania, Japan, and China will all lose up to two-thirds of their labor force.
“The looming population decline is a wake-up call,” Dettmers says. “The most important fuel of economic growth in the past several centuries has been people. And with fewer people, less work can get done.”
