By Javier Villamor
Excerpt:
What if the next major restriction does not come from a virus but from a lack of energy?
In Brussels, nobody wants to utter the term yet. The European Commission avoids any official comparison with the pandemic and rejects talk of “energy lockdowns.” But the idea is beginning to circulate with growing normality.
The war with Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a crisis that no longer resembles the one of a few weeks ago. Back then, the discussion was mainly about voluntary measures, energy-saving campaigns and possible recommendations. Now rationing has begun for real, although for the moment it is concentrated on fuel.
Slovenia has become the first member state of the European Union to impose mandatory limits at filling stations. Private drivers cannot buy more than 50 litres a day and in some private stations the maximum has even been reduced to 30. Companies and farmers have a limit of 200 litres and the government has even mobilised the army to guarantee supply.
This type of action opens a door Brussels wanted to keep shut. For weeks, the Commission had insisted that it was not considering rationing measures within the EU. Now there is already one European country applying them and others are beginning to prepare similar mechanisms.
The Commission continues to use technical language. It speaks of “demand reduction measures,” “energy resilience” and “consumption coordination,” but behind those formulas appears a catalogue of measures that recalls another period that is still far too recent: working from home, fewer journeys, lower speed limits on roads, restrictions on the use of private cars, fewer flights and changes to business hours to consume less energy.
Dan Jørgensen, the European Commissioner for Energy, formally asked governments last Tuesday to prepare coordinated saving plans with particular attention to transport.
He argues that Europe depends on the Gulf for more than 40% of the diesel and aviation fuel it consumes. With Hormuz partially blocked, the Union is facing the disruption of almost 20% of global oil trade.
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Spain, Austria and other governments are trying to buy time. Madrid has reduced VAT on fuels, electricity and gas from 21% to 10%, approved aid for hauliers, farmers and fishermen, and released 11.5 million barrels from its strategic reserves. Austria has opted for tax cuts and limits on corporate profit margins. Brussels and the International Energy Agency have already released more than 400 million barrels from reserves worldwide. Budapest has imposed a price cap on motor fuel (the removal of which Brussels has already officially requested, the Hungarian government said.)
But those measures are beginning to look insufficient if the war continues.
Inside European institutions, officials are already working on a staggered, almost apocalyptic scenario. First would come purchase limits at filling stations, as in Slovenia. Then mandatory working from home for part of the public administration and recommendations to reduce travel. Later could come traffic restrictions, lower speed limits on motorways and flight cancellations. And if winter arrives with gas storage facilities still empty, Europe could enter a much more serious phase: mandatory cuts in electricity and gas consumption.
That scenario is not yet in force, but it already appears in internal winter-preparedness documents. European gas reserves are around 41% of capacity, clearly below the average of recent years. If they are not replenished before October and the winter is especially cold, Brussels is considering bringing back the tools of 2022: mandatory consumption-reduction targets, price intervention, extraordinary taxes and even controlled supply cuts.
The threat particularly affects aviation. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned that between 10% and 25% of the aviation fuel available in Europe could disappear in May and June if the war continues. He is no longer speaking simply of more expensive tickets, but of a real possibility of mass flight cancellations in the middle of summer.
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The situation is beginning to feel disturbingly familiar. Once again, working from home. Once again, less movement. Once again, the idea that citizens must reorganise their daily lives in the name of an emergency defined from above. The difference is that this time the argument would not be public health but energy.
After years of talking about the green transition, strategic autonomy and resilience, the European Union is once again discovering its most basic dependency. It still needs foreign oil to sustain its economy, its mobility and its everyday life. And when that supply fails, a temptation Europe already knew during the pandemic reappears: limiting movement and consumption as a response to crisis.
Nobody is calling it an “energy lockdown” yet. But in Brussels there are already people preparing for it.
