By Roger Pielke Jr.
Excerpt: Today’s post starts with a simple question: Can wind turbines and solar panels be created from a supply chain powered by wind turbines and solar panels?
The answer is no.
Wind turbines and solar panels come from supply chains that are fossil fuel intensive and technological options to replace those fossil fuels in their production do not yet exist, and may never exist. This post unpacks the details.
To be absolutely clear, what follows is not an argument against wind and solar. THB readers will know that I am bullish on solar and not so much on wind. I’ve long argued that the lowest hanging fruit for large emissions reductions is dirty coal plants, which can be replaced with natural gas, nuclear, as well as wind and solar with storage.
Today’s post is an exercise in understanding quantitatively the true challenges of an energy transition and move beyond the claim that we have all the technology we need for deep decarbonization — typically emphasizing extensive deployment of wind and solar energy generation, accompanied by battery storage.
So-called “renewables” are not remotely renewable. To be sure, solar and wind technologies, coupled with storage, can contribute to the decarbonization of electricity. However, they are each built on a deep foundation of fossil fuels.1
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The figure below shows projected CO₂ emissions from wind, solar, and battery supply chains projected to 2050 under a frozen technology baseline for the IEA’s net zero scenario (NZE), its stated policies scenario (STEPS), and a simple extension of the historical trend.6 The historical data in the figure is the same found in the figure above, which gives a sense of scale.
The results are incredible — and described in more detail below.
