By Ronald Stein P.E.
Most people may not realize that the underground black tar commonly referred to as crude oil is essentially useless unless refined into something usable. Fortunately, in less than a few centuries, mankind’s ingenuity led to 250 groundbreaking hydrocarbon processing and refining techniques being discovered. The impact of that ingenuity continues today, benefiting the 8 billion people living on Earth with more than 6,000 products and transportation fuels that are derived from oil.
Across the world, people are living longer. In 1900, the average life expectancy of a newborn was 32 years. By 2021, this had more than doubled to 71 years. Today, it’s better than 75 years.
Today, we have more than 50,000 merchant ships, more than 20,000 commercial aircraft, and more than 50,000 military aircraft that are built with products made from oil. The transportation fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of jets moving people and products, and the merchant ships for global trade flows, and the military and space programs, are also dependent on what can be manufactured from crude oil.
In addition to the large oil reserves, the world has an abundance of coal that can somewhat replace crude oil through coal gasification and coal liquefaction plants, but they, too, have emission challenges.
> We know that raw crude oil is useless unless it can be refined into derivatives that are the basis of more than 6,000 products, and for various transportation fuels.
> Technology is always evolving, like fracking, but at the current crude oil usage of about 82 million barrels a day, those “known” reserves of crude oil may run out in the next 100 years or more.
> Refineries in America are getting old, and several are starting to shut down.
> It’s almost impossible to get a new refinery sited, permitted, and built in America.
> Coal gasification and coal liquefaction plants may face the same or even greater challenges for new refineries – getting them sited, permitted, and built.
However, the expansion plans for refineries, coal gasification, and coal liquefaction plants face challenges, particularly with growing environmental concerns and policy shifts towards reducing emissions and fossil fuel consumption, according to the Institute for Energy Research.
In recent decades, no new refineries have been built in America. Building these projects is not only expensive but also fraught with environmental and political opposition, particularly with rising concerns over climate change and the transition to greener energy. These projects can experience delays due to various factors, including financing, logistics, and regulatory hurdles.
Concerns for new refineries, coal gasification, and coal liquefaction plants for construction raise significant political and environmental concerns, including:
Air pollution: Refining processes release harmful pollutants such as particulate matter (PM), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), contributing to smog, acid rain, and respiratory illnesses.
Water pollution: Refineries generate vast amounts of wastewater containing oil, grease, and toxic chemicals, posing risks to aquatic ecosystems and drinking water sources if not properly treated.
Greenhouse gas emissions: The combustion of fossil fuels in refineries contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), exacerbating climate change.
Land degradation and hazardous waste: Refinery operations can lead to soil contamination from spills and leaks, land disturbance during construction, and the generation of hazardous waste.
Health impacts on communities: Studies show that communities living near refineries, often disadvantaged and minority populations, face higher risks of developing various health issues, including asthma, cancers, and cardiovascular diseases.
To support the supply chain of all those products and fuels demanded by society, there are:
> Currently, 825 active oil refineries in the world.
> Plans for 181 additional refineries by 2030, mostly in developing countries.
> A few operating coal gasification projects.
> No coal liquefaction plants in America.
Despite tepid demand growth projections, 4.2 mb/d of new refining capacity is expected globally by 2030 (mostly located in developing countries), partly offset by 1.6 mb/d of closures (mostly older refineries located in the wealthier developed countries).
California is set to lose 17% of its oil refinery capacity over the next 12 months due to two planned refinery closures: Phillips in Southern CA in 2025 and Valero in Northern CA in 2026. If realized, the closure of these facilities is likely to contribute to increases in fuel price volatility on the West Coast, and challenges to meet the demand of California’s 9 international airports and 41 military airports for 13 million gallons of aviation fuel daily from in-state refineries.
It’s ironic that the 650 acres of the Phillips Refinery in Wilmington, CA, that will be closing at the end of 2025, will be replaced with retail and warehouses all built and supported with the products made by refined crude oil, from other refineries that are not in MY backyard.
Asia is the region with the greatest number of future petroleum refineries. As of 2021, there were 88 new refinery facilities in planning or under construction in Asia for manufactured gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels used by every transportation infrastructure, and the military, as well as the manufactured oil derivatives that are the basis of most products being used by mankind.
These upcoming refinery projects are a combination of new construction, primarily in developing countries, and expansions of existing facilities, primarily in wealthier developed countries. The Asia-Pacific region, especially China and India, is expected to see a significant portion of these new refining additions, followed by the Middle East and Africa.
In response to these concerns, the refining industry is adopting various technologies and practices to reduce pollution, including flare gas recovery systems, VOC control technologies, advanced wastewater treatment systems, and energy-efficient combustion systems. Stricter environmental regulations and the shift towards cleaner energy sources are also impacting the future of the refining industry, potentially leading to refinery closures in the coming decades.
This 4-billion-year-old Planet has vast resources of crude oil and coal in the ground that need to be refined or processed to meet the supply chain of products demanded by society. However, the more advanced developed economies are the LEAST likely to allow any “dirty” emissions-generating plants to be sited, permitted, or built in THEIR BACKYARDS, inclusive of refineries, coal gasification, and coal liquefaction plants to help meet the materialistic product and fuel demands of humanity!
Please share this information with teachers, students, and friends to encourage Energy Literacy conversations at the family dinner table.
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