Climate activists who poured soup on Van Gogh’s paintings believe ‘climate change will destroy human civilization unless emergency action is taken’
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.: I encourage you to read the @JustStop_Oil manifesto. It's a sad statement of what we experts have done to young people. It is chock full of hyperbole from authoritative figures, references to work of the "planetary boundaries" folks & RCP8.5 studies.
The below from their preamble:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1581617225735163905.html
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More from @RogerPielkeJr
Sep 6
🧵 New NGFS climate scenarios are out today, version 3.0 Two big takeaways
First, Version 3.0 sees another big revision downward on both emissions and future temperature increase NGFS worst case scenario is now pretty close to a “long plateau” in emissions ngfs.net/sites/default/…
Compare that to versions 1.0 and 2.0 which saw a steady increase in emissions (I’ll update this figure when the NGFS scenario explorer is available) Remarkable change in expectations in such a short time
Sep 6
“At the time, No. 10’s strategy was to create the impression that lockdown was a scientifically created policy which only crackpots dared question.” spectator.co.uk/article/the-lo…
Sunak: “There was a failure to raise difficult questions about where all this might lead – and a tendency to use fear messaging to stifle debate, instead of encouraging discussion.” spectator.co.uk/article/the-lo…
“A cost-benefit calculation – a basic requirement for pretty much every public health intervention – was never made. ‘I wasn’t allowed to talk about the trade-off,’ says Sunak.” spectator.co.uk/article/the-lo…
Sep 4
Quick 🧵 on what IPCC says about precip and floods in Pakistan The only mention that the IPCC AR6 Ch.12 makes about Pakistan and monsoon precipitation is to suggest a possible decrease ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
On river flooding IPCC AR6 Ch.12 says that it does not have confidence in projecting whether river floods will increase or decrease in the region of Pakistan (highlighted in IPCC figure/table below by me) ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
The IPCC provides exceedingly little (perhaps no) basis for either the detection or attribution of flooding in Pakistan to GHG forcing More on what IPCC says about floods and climate change: rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…
Aug 24
🧵 One of the confusing things about extreme event return periods is that they change, sometimes dramatically, when an extreme event occurs That’s because return periods beyond the period of record are based on a curve fit to observed data based on statistical assumptions
Here is a nice figure from the @ObservatoryHK showing how just a single rainfall event turns a 100mm rainfall in one our from a 1 in 50 year event to a one in 34 year event
Consider Dallas this week DFW Airport record a 24-hour rainfall of 9.19 inches yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/08/wettes… Accord to NOAA Atlas 14 we can be 90% confident that prior to the event, it was somewhere between a 25-yr and 1000+ yr event hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds…
Aug 24
I don’t think you an point any area of knowledge where consensus assessments, peer-reviewed literature & official data are so systematically ignored as extreme weather
A decade ago Steve Rayner (RIP) wrote about the “social construction of ignorance” – about the steps we collectively take to blot out or ignore knowledge that is dissonant or uncomfortable Extreme weather is a canonical case study tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
I am among the most published & cited experts on extreme weather yet . . . Perhaps due to that I have been attacked by the White House, investigated by Congress, target of a billionaire’s smear campaign & comprehensively ignored by the climate media rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-hounding…
Aug 23
Many people really like the idea of the apocalypse, especially an end-of-times resulting from our own actions that can only be avoided through some repentance I welcome pointers to literature on this seemingly basic human instinct Why do we love the apocalypse?
Kellow 2020 The Lure of the Apocalypse quadrant.org.au/magazine/2020/…
Lambelet 2021 “Amid the cascade of environmental crises we are living through, apocalyptic practices of renunciation of the world offer a guide and discipline for living in the end” doi.org/10.1177%2F0953…
