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‘Unprecedentedly few’: ‘2021 had the fewest global hurricanes in the satellite era’ & 2nd fewest strong hurricanes since 1980

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture

Hurricanes in 2021 were unprecedented — as in

Globally, 2021 had the fewest hurricanes in the satellite era (1980-2021)

Did you see that reported anywhere?…Image

Globally, 2021 had some of the strong hurricanes in the satellite era (1980-2021)

Did you see that reported anywhere?

With 16 strong (Cat 3+) hurricanes, 2021 was the second-lowest strong hurricane year since 1980…Image

Globally, 2021 was a weak hurricane year

When measured by total energy (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), 2021 was the 9th weakest year

Did you see that reported anywhere?…Image

Hurricanes in 2021 were weak and exceptionally few

But we heard lots about North Atlantic hurricanes

Conveniently, North Atlantic is the only basin where hurricanes are stronger





Does this leave us well-informed?Image

2021 hurricanes weakBut we hear lots about (hurricanes + weaker storms)Ever-easier to detect, so numbers keep climbing(4 of 2020s 30 named storms wouldn’t have been named in 2000!)Not as relevant, but hey, scary numbers



Weather & Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally:  Extreme weather expert Roger Pielke, Jr.: “The data show that from 2000 to 2021, the number of global weather and climate disasters declined by about 10%, which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom,” notes Pielke over at his new Honest Broker Substack. “The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved. So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate.” Note that even the WMO report shows a decline between the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 periods.

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. : ‘What is climate attribution about? Politics first, science second’Pielke Jr. : “What is climate attribution about? Politics first, science second So let’s err on the side of claiming every weather event is linked, connected, fueled by climate.”

Consider also that according to data from the U.S. National Weather Service from 2000 to 2020 only four of the strongest category of tornadoes were observed (which are labelled as F/EF5 tornadoes) In comparison, from 1954 to 1974 36 (!) such powerful tornadoes were observed. Our research on tornado damage in the United States over many decades shows a decline that is suggestive of an actual decline in tornado incidence. Based on the IPCC assessment of the literature, along with the underlying data and research, the only scientifically valid answer to the question of whether greenhouse gas emissions and associated climate change are leading to more or more intense tornado outbreaks — a “new normal” — is that neither tornadoes nor the most intense tornadoes have increased since at least the 1950s.

Climate ‘attribution is political’: New Paper: ‘Politics of attributing extreme events and disasters to climate change’New paper on extreme weather attribution: “The desire to persuade the public of the dangers of climate change via attributions of climate events pressures scientists and the media alike to attribute extreme climate events (and associated crises) to climate change.”

‘Gross misinformation’: Extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. Slams New hurricane study – ‘Re-invents history by using modeled historical hurricane activity to find the right trends’

The Facts: Reporters Exploit Normal Weather To Fan Climate Fear

Tropical cyclone activity below-normal in 2021 across Northern Hemisphere & US tornadic activity also below-normalMeteorologist Paul Dorian: “Tropical cyclone activity across the Northern Hemisphere has been below-normal in 2021 in much the same way as it was last year. Specifically, while the Atlantic Basin featured above-normal tropical activity in this year and last, the Pacific Ocean experienced below-normal conditions in both years leading the way to below-normal levels across the hemisphere as a whole. In terms of tornadoes, it has been another below-normal season in the US with no EF-5’s recorded.”

Earth sees ‘quietest period globally for tropical storms & hurricanes since 1993’ during October 2021


Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years