Analysis: ‘The reality is that our weather is no worse now than it was 150 years ago’ IPCC report is ‘highly subjective projections of what might happen in the future’
The IPCC Summary For Policymakers
If we ignore all of the alarmist rhetoric in the IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers, the real nitty gritty lies in these four sections:
1) Extreme Rainfall
In fact there are only two areas with sufficient data:
a) Central North America
It is certainly true that rainfall has increased there during recent decades, but that is in comparison with the devastating droughts which used to affect the region up to the 1960s.
In other words, heavy rainfall there has been greatly beneficial.
b) Northern Europe (ie Scandinavia)
Where I strongly suspect it would make any real difference!
As for floods, this is what the as yet unpublished Full Report has to say:
So, some areas are experiencing more floods, and others less!
Again, there are just two areas with sufficient data:
a) West North America
Since the mid 20thC, rainfall appears to have declined, but since the start of records in 1895, there is actually a slightly increasing trend in precipitation:
This appears to be the only region where there is any confidence of a long term trend, and only medium confidence at that.
What is apparent is that the widespread drought shown in this section is at odds with the increased precipitation in the first section. It is also plainly nonsense to claim that drought is increasing in India, for instance, where we know monsoon rainfall has increased significantly since the disastrous droughts of the 1960s and 70s.
3) Tropical Cyclones
The strengthening of hurricanes in the last four decades is an effect of the AMO, as NOAA explain:
As the IPCC admit, they cannot find any longer term trends. Equally there is no actual evidence to back up claims of the heavier rainfall, which attribution studies allege is happening.
4) Sea Level Rise
I think the IPCC’s own chart highlights what a nonsense their projections are!
The reality is that our weather is no worse now than it was 150 years ago. Indeed I would strongly suggest that governments all around the world would be terrified if they were told we were going back to the climate Little Ice Age.
Think I’m kidding? This was exactly scientists thought was going to happen during the global cooldown in the 1970s, and governments were genuinely alarmed.
All that is left in the IPCC report is a host of highly subjective projections of what might happen in the future.