A new paper published in The Cryosphere reconstructs Alpine glacier fluctuations over the past 1600 years and finds glacier lengths of 7 Alpine glaciers were similar during the Medieval Warm Period and the end of the 20th century.
Lomborg notes 'global warming has dramatically slowed or entirely stopped in the last decade and a half' - 'When politicians around the world tell the story of global warming, they cast it as humanity’s greatest challenge. But they also promise that it is a challenge that they can meet at low cost, while improving the world in countless other ways. We now know that is nonsense...Climate change has been portrayed as a huge catastrophe costing as much as 20% of world GDP, though brave politicians could counter it at a cost of just 1% of GDP. The reality is just the opposite: We now know that the damage cost will be perhaps 2% of world GDP, whereas climate policies can end up costing more than 11% of GDP.'
Scientists concede global warming 'pause' - But now say 'we appear to be measuring the wrong thing' - 'Unusually strong trade winds in the Pacific Ocean, which have buried the surface heat deep underwater'
Paper 'studies glacier length data available worldwide since 1800 and finds that glaciers retreated faster during the first half of the 20th century than the second half from 1950-2000. This is the opposite pattern that would be expected if man-made greenhouse gases were the cause, and suggests a natural origin. Most warmists and the IPCC claim man-made greenhouse gases did not begin to affect climate until after 1950, and thus can't be blamed for the fastest rate of glacier retreat from ~1850-1950 and subsequentdeceleration.'
Nature question: 'Is climate change going to be less extreme than you previously thought?'
Lovelock: The Revenge of Gaia was over the top, but we were all so taken in by the perfect correlation between temperature and CO2 in the ice-core analyses [from the ice-sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, studied since the 1980s]. You could draw a straight line relating temperature and CO2, and it was such a temptation for everyone to say, “Well, with CO2 rising we can say in such and such a year it will be this hot.” It was a mistake we all made.
We shouldn’t have forgotten that the system has a lot of inertia and we’re not going to shift it very quickly. The thing we’ve all forgotten is the heat storage of the ocean — it’s a thousand times greater than the atmosphere and the surface. You can’t change that very rapidly But being an independent scientist, it is much easier to say you made a mistake than if you are a government department or an employee or anything like that.
Nature: 'So what will the next 100 years look like?'
Lovelock: 'That’s impossible to answer. All I can say is that it will be nowhere as near as bad as the worst-case scenario.'