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New Studies Find No Global Drought Trend Since 1902 – Global Flood Magnitudes Decline With Warming

https://notrickszone.com/2023/08/14/new-studies-find-no-global-drought-trend-since-1902-global-flood-magnitudes-decline-with-warming/ By Kenneth Richard Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is claimed to intensify hydrological processes. Data analysis indicates it does not. A paradigm has emerged in recent decades that says there has been and/or will be a worsening of hydrological extremes as a consequence of global warming. Simplified, the paradigm says that wet gets wetter (flooding) and dry gets drier (drought). But new global data analyses suggest (a) no trends in drought in the last 120 years (Shi et al., 2022), and (b) declining flood magnitudes as the climate warms (He et al., 2022). With regard to drought, the global trends indicate there has actually been a de-intensification of meteorological (climate-related) drought from 1959-2014 relative to to 1902-1959. “The results revealed that: 1) meteorological drought in most climate regions intensified during 1902–1958 but showed a wetting trend during 1959–2014.” Image Source: Shi et al., 2022 And, likewise, flood magnitudes have not just been flat, but they have been declining as the climate has warmed. “We find most of the world shows decreases in flood volumes with increasing temperature.” “[O]bservational records often present more evidence for a decrease in annual flood maxima.” Image Source: He et al., 2022

Physicist: ‘The frequency & severity of floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves & wildfires are not increasing, & may even be declining in some cases’

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2023/5/15/no-evidence-that-extreme-weather-on-the-rise-a-look-at-the-past-1-hurricanes-129 By Physicist Dr. Ralph Alexander The popular but mistaken belief that today’s weather extremes are more common and more intense because of climate change is becoming deeply embedded in the public consciousness, thanks to a steady drumbeat of articles in the mainstream media and pronouncements by luminaries such as President Biden in the U.S., Pope Francis and the UN Secretary-General. But the belief is wrong and more a perception than reality. An abundance of scientific evidence demonstrates that the frequency and severity of floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves and wildfires are not increasing, and may even be declining in some cases. That so many people think otherwise reflects an ignorance of, or an unwillingness to look at, our past climate. Collective memories of extreme weather are short-lived. In this and subsequent posts, I’ll present examples of extreme weather over the past century or so that matched or exceeded anything we’re experiencing in the present-day world. I’ll start with hurricanes. The deadliest U.S. hurricane in record­ed history struck Galveston, Texas in 1900, killing an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people. Lacking a protective seawall built later, the thriving port was completely flattened (photo on right) by winds of 225 km per hour (140 mph) and a storm surge exceeding 4.6 meters (15 feet). With almost no automobiles, the hapless populace could flee only on foot or by horse and buggy. Reported the Nevada Daily Mail at the time: Residents [were] crushed to death in crumbling buildings or drowned in the angry waters. Hurricanes have been a fact of life for Americans in and around the Gulf of Mexico since Galveston and before. The death toll has come down over time with improvements in planning and engineering to safeguard structures, and the development of early warning sys­tems to allow evacuation of threatened communities. Nevertheless, the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes has been essentially unchanged since 1851, as seen in the following figure. The apparent heightened hurricane ac­tivity over the last 20 years, particularly in 2005 and 2020, simply reflects improvements in observational capabilities since 1970 and is unlikely to be a true climate trend, say a team of hurricane experts. As you can see, the incidence of major North Atlantic hurricanes in recent decades is no higher than that in the 1950s and 1960s. Ironically, the earth was actually cooling during that period, unlike today. Of notable hurricanes during the active 1950s and 1960s, the deadliest was 1963’s Hurricane Flora that cost nearly as many lives as the Galveston Hurricane. Flora didn’t strike the U.S. but made successive landfalls in Tobago, Haiti and Cuba (path shown in photo on left), reaching peak wind speeds of 320 km per hour (200 mph). In Haiti a record 1,450 mm (57 inches) of rain fell – comparable to what Hurricane Harvey dumped on Houston in 2017 – resulting in landslides which buried whole towns and destroyed crops. Even heavier rain, up to 2,550 mm (100 inches), devastated Cuba and 50,000 people were evacuated from the island, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. Hurricane Diane in 1955 walloped the North Carolina coast, then moved north through Virginia and Pennsylvania before ending its life as a tropical storm off the coast of New England. Although its winds had dropped from 190 km per hour (120 mph) to less than 55 km per hour (35 mph) by then, it spawned rainfall of 50 cm (20 inches) over a two-day period there, causing massive flooding and dam failures (photo to right). An estimated total of 200 people died. In North Carolina, Diane was but one of three hurricanes that struck the coast in just two successive months that year. In 1960, Hurricane Donna moved through Florida with peak wind speeds of 285 km per hour (175 mph) after pummeling the Bahamas and Puerto Rico. A storm surge of up to 4 meters (13 feet) combined with heavy rainfall caused extensive flooding all across the peninsula (photo on left). On leaving Florida, Donna struck North Carolina, still as a Category 3 hurricane (top wind speed 180 km per hour or 110 mph), and finally Long Island and New England. NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) calls Donna “one of the all-time great hurricanes.” Florida has been a favorite target of hurricanes for more than a century. The next figure depicts the frequency by decade of all Florida landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) since the 1850s. While major Florida hurricanes show no trend over 170 years, the trend in hurricanes overall is downward – even in a warming world. Hurricane Camille in 1969 first made landfall in Cuba, leaving 20,000 people homeless. It then picked up speed, smashing into Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane with wind speeds of approximately 300 km per hour (185 mph); the exact speed is unknown because the hurricane’s impact destroyed all measuring instruments. Camille generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico over 21 meters (70 feet) high, beaching two ships (photo on right), and caused the Mississippi River to flow backwards. A total of 257 people lost their lives, the Montreal Gazette reporting that workers found: a ton of bodies … in trees, under roofs, in bushes, everywhere. These are just a handful of hurricanes from our past, all as massive and deadly as last year’s Category 5 Hurricane Ian which deluged Florida with a storm surge as high as Galveston’s and rainfall up to 685 mm (27 inches); 156 were killed. Hurricanes are not on the rise today.

Definitive Guide to Extreme Weather: No trends or declining trends in hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, droughts, heat waves, disaster losses, wildfires – All peer-reviewed & official sources – By Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1625530996958572545.html The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr.     Feb 14, 2023 • 18 tweets 🧵 What the media won’t tell you about extreme weather and its impactsHere is a thread of some of the figures I’ve posted in recent months about extreme weather that I have never seen in legacy media reportingAll peer-reviewed and official sources . . .  Floods IPCC finds no trends in flooding globally Did you know that flood impacts in the US as a proportion of wealth are down >70% over 80 years? Huge news, good news!But don’t tell anyone 🥸 rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . Floods Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and recent research actually sayshttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-the-media-wont-tell-you-3b0 # Drought The IPCC finds no long-term trends in meteorological or hydrological drought In Western Europe specifically there is no trend in drought over >150 years rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . Drought in Western and Central Europe Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and recent research actually say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-the-media-wont-tell-you # US heat waves The US government’s official metric for heat waves comes from a paper I co-authored more than 20 years ago. It shows an increase since ~1960s but a decrease since <1930s rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . U.S. heat waves Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and official data really say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-9f9 US heat waves During the past 50 years, when heat waves have increased, mortality from extreme heat has fallen pretty much everywhere in the US rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…That is good news! Let’s keep it up SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . U.S. heat waves Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and official data really say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-9f9 # US (mainland) hurricanes IPCC, WMO, UNNCA are all in agreement No upwards trends in landfalling hurricanes, including the strongest storms. Have you ever seen these graphs in the media (aside from Bill Nye and his sharpie;) rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . hurricanes Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and official data really sayhttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about # US disaster costs As a proportion of GDP US disaster costs have gone down More good news! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/billion-doll… “Billion Dollar Disasters” are a National EmbarrassmentYou won’t find a more obvious example of bad science from the U.S. governmenthttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-disasters-are-a-national European disaster costs As a proportion of GDP European disaster losses have gone down Even more good news! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/making-sense… SERIES: Making Sense of Trends in Disaster Losses Part 2: Normalized disaster losses in Europe 1995 to 2019https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/making-sense-of-trends-in-disaster-ced Global weather and climate disaster losses As a proportion of GDP global disaster (weather and climate, but also overall) have gone down Great news! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe… Don’t Believe the Hype Global Disasters in 2022, a Preliminary Assessment https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe-the-hype Disasters This century the number of disasters tracked by EM-DAT has not increased, in fact down a bit Important to understand why so that progress with respect to the Sendai Framework can be maintained! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe… ] Don’t Believe the Hype Global Disasters in 2022, a Preliminary Assessmenthttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe-the-hype # US tornadoes Reports of the strongest US tornadoes (EF3+) which cause ~70% of death and destruction are down in the long and short terms rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… What the media won’t tell you about . . . Tornadoes Let’s take a look at what the data and science actually say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-3fe Damage from tornadoes supports the data on falling numbers of the strongest tornadoes Both inflation-adjusted and normalized tornado losses have decreased rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… What the media won’t tell you about . . . Tornadoes Let’s take a look at what the data and science actually say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-3fe Normalized US hurricane losses As we would expect with no up-trend in US landfalls there is no trend in normalized US hurricane losses since 1900 rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/pielkes-week… Pielke’s Weekly Memo #19A sneak peak at normalized U.S. hurricane losses 1900 to 2022 https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/pielkes-weekly-memo-19 Global hurricane landfalls Lots of ups and downs over 70+ years but no overall trend rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Just the Facts on Global HurricanesMore storms? Fewer but more intense? More landfalls? No, No and Nohttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-facts-on-global-hurricanes Global hurricane energy More ups and down but no trend since 1980 rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Just the Facts on Global Hurricanes More storms? Fewer but more intense? More landfalls? No, No and No https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-facts-on-global-hurricanes Global hurricane energy per storm No trend since 1980 Storms are not getting stronger but fewerrogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Just the Facts on Global HurricanesMore storms? Fewer but more intense? More landfalls? No, No and Nohttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-facts-on-global-hurricanes Everything you find in this thread Everything Is consistent with what has been reported in the IPCC & found in official data and the peer-reviewed literatureShhh … don’t tell anyone How to Understand the New IPCC Report: Part 2, Extreme Events Contrary to what you’ve been reading, the massive new IPCC report offers grounds for optimism on climate science and policyhttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-understand-the-new-ipcc-report-1e3 If you want to understand what the science of extreme weather, climate and disasters actually says, please sign up to The Honest Broker Amazing to me that some of the things I write about you cannot find anywhere else So I’m not gonna stop

Climate change makes heat waves, storms & droughts worse – Claim weather attribution models

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/01/10/climate-change-makes-heat-waves-storms-and-droughts-worse-say-weather-attribution-models/ By Paul Homewood This new report is making the rounds: Climate change is causing the weather around the world to get more extreme, and scientists are increasingly able to pinpoint exactly how the weather is changing as the Earth heats up. A sweeping new report by top climate scientists and meteorologists describes how climate change drove unprecedented heat waves, floods and droughts in recent years. The annual report from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) compiles the leading science about the role of climate change in extreme weather. “It’s a reminder that the risk of extreme events is growing, and they’re affecting every corner of the world,” says Sarah Kapnick, the chief scientist at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Earth is already about 2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than it was in the late 1800s, and scientists warn that humans must cut greenhouse gas emissions in half this decade to avoid catastrophic warming later this century. One way to understand and predict the effects of a hotter Earth is to look for the fingerprints of climate change on extreme weather events such as floods, heat waves and droughts. The last decade has seen huge leaps forward for the field known as extreme-event attribution science, which uses statistics and climate models to detect global warming’s impact on weather disasters. The extreme drought in California and Nevada in 2021, for example, was six times more likely because of climate change. One of the big takeaways from the new report is that heat waves that used to be virtually impossible are increasingly likely. “Extreme heat events are more extreme than ever,” says Stephanie Herring, one of the authors of the report and a scientist at NOAA. “Research is showing they’re likely to become the new normal in the not so distant future.” https://www.npr.org/2023/01/09/1147805696/climate-change-makes-heat-waves-storms-and-droughts-worse-climate-report-confirm # Paul Homewood comments:  Note that their so-called evidence is climate attribution modelling, which by definition is not evidence at all. Ross McKittrick, Professor of Economics, produced a paper in 2021 which destroyed the credibility of attribution modelling because of fundamental statistical flaws in the modelling. One day after the IPCC released the AR6 I published a paper in Climate Dynamics showing that their “Optimal Fingerprinting” methodology on which they have long relied for attributing climate change to greenhouse gases is seriously flawed and its results are unreliable and largely meaningless. Some of the errors would be obvious to anyone trained in regression analysis, and the fact that they went unnoticed for 20 years despite the method being so heavily used does not reflect well on climatology as an empirical discipline. My paper is a critique of “Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting” by Myles Allen and Simon Tett, which was published in Climate Dynamics in 1999 and to which I refer as AT99. Their attribution methodology was instantly embraced and promoted by the IPCC in the 2001 Third Assessment Report (coincident with their embrace and promotion of the Mann hockey stick). The IPCC promotion continues today: see AR6 Section 3.2.1. It has been used in dozens and possibly hundreds of studies over the years. Wherever you begin in the Optimal Fingerprinting literature (example), all paths lead back to AT99, often via Allen and Stott (2003). So its errors and deficiencies matter acutely. https://judithcurry.com/2021/08/18/the-ipccs-attribution-methodology-is-fundamentally-flawed/ Other scientific experts have been less reticent in their criticism. Professor Roger Pielke Jr for instance: https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1417882876977184768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1417882876977184768%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.climatedepot.com%2F2021%2F07%2F21%2Fextreme-weather-expert-dr-roger-pielke-jr-rips-event-attribution-science-as-the-relaxing-of-rigor-standards-in-order-to-generate-claims-more-friendly-to-headlines-political-advocacy-eve%2F And Obama’s Climate Scientist, Steve Koonin, has commented: It is significant that in this latest paper there is no attempt to use real world data to prove that the events they talk of are actually getting worse. We know, for instance, that the data on hurricanes shows that they are not, a fact which is even acknowledged by official bodies such as NOAA. Weather attribution has been politicised since its early beginnings, and is undertaken for the express purpose of linking extreme weather to climate change. It should not be confused with real science.

Climate change affecting Christmas tree farms across Canada, expert says – ‘Experienced prolonged drought & extreme heat over the last two summers’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/canada/climate-change-affecting-christmas-trees-in-b-c-and-beyond-expert/ar-AA1598Y0 VANCOUVER — The effects of climate change are taking a toll on Christmas tree farms across Canada, with one forestry expert and the head of the Canadian Christmas Tree Association saying the sector that’s already undergoing shifts will need to adapt. The festive trees take eight to 12 years to reach the size most people look for, and young seedlings are particularly vulnerable to climate risks, said Richard Hamelin, head of the forest conservation sciences department at the University of B.C. Much of the province has experienced prolonged drought and extreme heat over the last two summers, and the seedlings have shallow root systems that don’t reach beyond the very dry layers of soil near the surface, Hamelin explained. Meanwhile, their older counterparts may survive but lose their needles or turn brown as a result of extreme heat and drought, he said in an interview. Seedlings and their shallow roots are also at risk of being inundated during flooding, while wet, cool soils increase the risk of root diseases, Hamelin noted. Record-breaking atmospheric rivers of rain caused extensive flooding throughout southwestern B.C. in November 2021, but Shirley Brennan, the executive director of the Canadian Christmas Trees Association, said farmers in the province reported their seedlings mostly appeared fine and the extreme heat had been much harder on the trees.

DEBUNKED: Europe’s claimed ‘worst drought in 500 years’ – Peer-reviewed studies, data & IPCC reveal ‘drought has not increased’ & ‘cannot be attributed to human-caused climate change’

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-the-media-wont-tell-you Dr. Pielke Jr.: Let’s take a look at what the peer-reviewed literature and the IPCC actually say about drought trends in this region and their possible attribution to climate change. One recent study — Vincente-Serrano et al. 2020 — looked at long-term trends in drought in Western Europe from 1851 to 2018, with a focus on precipitation deficits…The figure below shows trends aggregated for the region as a whole. They conclude: “Our study stresses that from the long-term (1851–2018) perspective there are no generally consistent trends in droughts across Western Europe.” Another recent study — Oikonomou et al. 2020 — looked at more recent trends, from 1969 to 2018, and inclusive of all four of the IPCC European sub-regions. They found overall: “Seemingly, one of the central outcomes of this research is that there is little change in drought characteristics for 1969–2018. It also seems, no particular tendencies for more or less frequent droughts in the two major geographical domains of Europe are present. This reinforces the stochastic nature of the drought natural hazard.” …  The IPCC AR6 — which summarizes a much broader literature than the two papers cited above — classifies drought into three categories: meteorological, hydrological and agricultural/ecological which emphasize respectively precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture. With respect to hydrological drought in Western and Central Europe the IPCC could not be stronger in its conclusion: “in areas of Western and Central Europe and Northern Europe, there is no evidence of changes in the severity of hydrological droughts since 1950”   For hydrological drought the IPCC is also quite strong in its conclusions: “Low confidence: Weak or insignificant trends” In Western and Central Europe — basically Atlantic France all the way to Moscow, north of the Mediterranean region and south of the North Sea region — the IPCC and the underlying peer reviewed research on which it assesses has concluded that drought has not increased and, logically, that increased drought cannot be attributed to human-caused climate change. # Roger Pielke Jr: What the media won’t tell you about drought in Europe Roger Pielke Jr., 15 August 2022[…] Europe is in the midst of what has been called the worst drought in 500 years. According to a drought expert with the European Commission in comments last week: “We haven’t analysed fully the event (this year’s drought), because it is still ongoing, but based on my experience I think that this is perhaps even more extreme than 2018. Just to give you an idea the 2018 drought was so extreme that, looking back at least the last 500 years, there were no other events similar to the drought of 2018, but this year I think it is really worse than 2018.” While a full analysis of the ongoing 2022 European drought remains to be completed, so too the drought itself, it is clearly exceptional if not unprecedented. In this post I take a close look at the state of understanding the possible role of climate change n this year’s drought. Specifically, I report on what the most recent assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and underlying literature and data say about the detection of trends in Western and Central European drought and the attribution of those trends to greenhouse gas emissions. The figure below shows the specific region that is the focus of this post, which includes all of Germany, most of France, Hungary, Poland, Ukraine, and western Russia among other nations. In general, for the other three regions in the above map the IPCC expects with varying levels of confidence at at different levels of warming by 2100 drought to decrease in Northern Europe (NEU, which includes the UK), increase in the Mediterranean (MED) and to be highly uncertain in Eastern Europe (EEU). I will be happy to explore these other regions in depth in a future post. (See IPCC AR6 Chapter 11 if you’d like to explore for yourself.) For Western and Central Europe, and especially for Germany and Northern France which are the subject of considerable news coverage right now, accurate representations of the current state of scientific understandings of drought are typically absent. Instead, we see many confident claims by journalists and some scientists of that this year’s drought is a signal of (or, if you prefer — fueled by, linked to, evidence of) human-caused climate change. Let’s take a look at what the peer-reviewed literature and the IPCC actually say about drought trends in this region and their possible attribution to climate change. One recent study — Vincente-Serrano et al. 2020 — looked at long-term trends in drought in Western Europe from 1851 to 2018, with a focus on precipitation deficits. (Note that their geographical definition of Western Europe differs slightly from that of the IPCC). The figure below shows trends aggregated for the region as a whole. They conclude: “Our study stresses that from the long-term (1851–2018) perspective there are no generally consistent trends in droughts across Western Europe.” Source: Vincente-Serrano et al. 2020 The paper goes through a number of different metrics of drought for various subregions across Europe. The authors are careful to note that there are other metrics of drought which may show different results:”We emphasize that our findings should be seen in the context of the drought metric applied. Our assessment of drought characteristics is based on SPI, which is a precipitation-based metric. For a long-term assessment of drought in the region, it is not possible to use metrics that employ other important variables (e.g., streamflow, soil moisture, or AED).” Another recent study — Oikonomou et al. 2020 — looked at more recent trends, from 1969 to 2018, and inclusive of all four of the IPCC European sub-regions. They found overall: “Seemingly, one of the central outcomes of this research is that there is little change in drought characteristics for 1969–2018. It also seems, no particular tendencies for more or less frequent droughts in the two major geographical domains of Europe are present. This reinforces the stochastic nature of the drought natural hazard.” Of course, as the studies above acknowledge, trend analyses can be sensitive to start and end dates. One reason for this sensitivity is the fact that climate varies a great deal even without the presence of human forcings — and this variability is of course one of the challenges facing the detection of long-term trends, especially for rare events. For its part, the IPCC AR6 — which summarizes a much broader literature than the two papers cited above — classifies drought into three categories: meteorological, hydrological and agricultural/ecological which emphasize respectively precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture. With respect to hydrological drought in Western and Central Europe the IPCC could not be stronger in its conclusion: “in areas of Western and Central Europe and Northern Europe, there is no evidence of changes in the severity of hydrological droughts since 1950” For hydrological drought the IPCC is also quite strong in its conclusions: “Low confidence: Weak or insignificant trends” The IPCC lumps WCE in with many other global regions in its conclusion that, “Past increases in agricultural and ecological droughts are found on all continents and several regions” which it expresses with medium confidence, a qualitative judgment which is typically interpreted as about a 50-50 chance of being true. Looking to the future the IPCC is quite clear that we should not expect to be able to attribute trends in drought to climate change today. The IPCC projects only medium confidence for increases in hydrological agricultural/ecological drought at 2 and 4 degrees C increases in temperature and low confidence for increases in meteorological drought at 2C. In short, the IPCC does not expect that either detection or attribution should occur in 2022, when we are still well below 2C and suggests that it may be many decades before detection and attribution claims can be more strongly supported. I have stitched together the summary table from IPCC AR6 Chapter 11 on the various metrics of drought and reproduced that below (alternatively, flip to pp. 1689-90 in Chapter 11 of IPCC AR6). IPCC AR6 summary of it conclusions for various metrics of drought for Western and Central Europe. Source: Chapter 11, 1689-90 The bottom line: In Western and Central Europe — basically Atlantic France all the way to Moscow, north of the Mediterranean region and south of the North Sea region — the IPCC and the underlying peer reviewed research on which it assesses has concluded that drought has not increased and, logically, that increased drought cannot be attributed to human-caused climate change. The only exception here is that the IPCC has medium confidence in an increasing trend of soil moisture deficits in some subregions, however the IPCC has low confidence that this trend can be attributed to human-caused climate change. Looking to future, at temperature changes of 2C and more, at present the IPCC does not expect the current state of scientific understandings to change. But stay tuned — that’s why we do science. # Related Links:  Excerpt from Green Fraud: Droughts Aren’t Getting Worse, Either— and Neither Are Wildfires “Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U.S. over the last century,” Professor Roger Pielke Jr. observed. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has concluded there is “no trend in global droughts since 1950.” Other studies found “a decline in drought levels in recent decades,” noted the Global Warming Policy Forum in 2020. “The IPCC says it is hard to say (‘low confidence’) whether global drought has become better or worse since 1950,” said the GWPF. A 2015 study found that megadroughts in the past two thousand years were worse and lasted longer than current droughts. There is “less fire today than centuries ago,” as scientists and multiple studies counter the claim that wildfires are due to “climate change.” # Excerpt from Green Fraud: Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado testified to Congress there was simply “‘no evidence’ that hurricanes, floods, droughts, tornadoes are increasing.” A 2020 study by Pielke published in the journal Environmental Hazards found that the “evidence signal of human-caused climate change in the form of increased global economic losses from more frequent or more intense weather extremes has not yet been detected.” On nearly every metric, extreme weather is on either no trend or a declining trend on climate timescales. Even the UN IPCC admitted in a 2018 special report that extreme weather events have not increased. The IPCC’s special report found that “there is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.”56 The IPCC report also concluded “low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale.” Pielke testified to Congress on the current state of weather extremes, “It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally.” # 1000 year rainfall study suggests droughts and floods used to be longer, worse Biden falsely links Kentucky floods to ‘climate change’ – Reality Check: Floods ‘have not increased in frequency or intensity’ – White House ignores peer-reviewed studies & IPCC & data Debunked: Kentucky’s Floods Were NOT Caused By ‘Climate Change’ – Media/Biden ‘Claims are rubbish & fraudulent’

The 1540 Megadrought in Europe: The River Rhine ran dry, fires burned, & no one blamed coal or beef steak

https://joannenova.com.au/2022/08/the-1540-megadrought-in-europe-rhine-ran-dry-fires-burned-and-no-one-blamed-coal-or-beef-steak/ By Jo Nova Despite the news that the River Rhine is in a crisis due to “climate change” it has happened before, and many times.  There are rocks in European rivers called Hunger Stones where people carved messages to mark the depth of the pain in the droughts. There are historical records of the Rhine drying up in spots so badly that people could walk across it with dry feet. In 1540 wells ran dry that had never run out of water. The whole decade was horrible, and in 1835 in Transylvania people were so hungry they ate dead cats and dogs. History is being actively wiped out because it never serves the narrative.  Megadroughts were longer and deeper in the last 2000 years.  The whole decade of the 1530s was filled with drought but the worst drought was 1540. Hell on Earth: the European drought of 1540 Patty Jansen In the summer of 1540, the people searched ever more desperate for drinking water. Even a meter and a half under the normal water table in Switzerland was not a drop of water to be found, noted Hans Salat at the time. Spring and upwellings that had never faltered now lay dry. Others were strictly guarded and water was drawn according to a time schedule. Thousands of people along the River Ruhr died of poisoning from dirty water. These messages carved in hunger stones go back as far as 1417.  The message was essentially “If you see me, weep”. Famine was coming. View of the Hunger Stone on the Elbe in Děčín. .     Imagine 600 years of droughts: The stone marks the low water levels of the Elbe with different dates. The oldest legible inscription dates from 1616. Older inscriptions (1417, 1473) were rubbed off over time by ships at anchor. The stone is also inscribed with the saying “Girl, do not cry and do not complain, when it is dry, spray the field”. This saying was probably made in 1938 by the pump manufacturer Frantisek Sigmund. The saying was based on the older saying “If you see me, then cry”. The Deciner Hungerstein is one of the oldest hydrological monuments on the Elbe. Even climate scientists hold 1540 in awe: Europe’s devastating millennial drought Andrew Frey, Spektrum (translated by Google.) Eleven months without rain, a million deaths – in 1540, a previously and since unprecedented drought devastated all of Europe. Can she repeat herself? The result: For eleven months there was almost no rain, the temperature was five to seven degrees above the normal values ​​of the 20th century, the temperature must have climbed above 40 degrees in midsummer. Countless forest areas in Europe went up in flames, acrid smoke obscured the sunlight, and not a single thunderstorm was recorded for the entire summer of 1540. July brought such a terrible scorching heat that the churches sent out prayers of supplication while the Rhine, Elbe and Seine could be waded through without getting wet. Where water still flowed, the warm broth turned green, and fish floated in it keel up. The level of Lake Constance dropped to a record level, and Lindau was even connected to the mainland. The surface water soon evaporated completely, the floors burst open, some drying cracks were so large that a foot could fit in them. And the groundwater dropped too: in the Swiss canton of Lucerne, desperate people tried to dig for water in a river bed, but found not a single drop even at a depth of one and a half meters. Christian Pfister therefore estimates that only a quarter to a maximum of a third of the usual amount of rain came from the sky that year. In Würzburg in 1540 the grapes were ripe early but dried up and raisin-like, so the winegrowers pressed them anyway and invented the “late harvest”. It became a legendary harvest and four bottles still remain unopened. Some wine experts opened one of the batch in 1961 when it was 421 years old. They remarked on the flavour with some amazement but said it lasted only a few moments before it oxidized and “became vinegar in our glasses”. The drought of 1539-1540 was extensive and severe The 1540 summer precipitation totals in Europe expressed as percentage deviations (× 100) from the 1961–1990 mean; (b) summer Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1540 in Europe according to OWDA . (Brázdil et al) Fires, famine, dust, water mills ran out of water, and people walked across some parts of the Rhine Severe heat and drought in summer and autumn afflicted Silesia, where there was practically no rain for 6 months. Many streams dried up and the water in the River Oder turned green. There were frequent forest fires and livestock suffered from hunger and thirst (Büsching, 1819). Similarly, severe heat, forest fires, poor harvest, shortages, and famine were mentioned for Bohemia, Silesia, and Lusatia (Gomolcke, 1737). In Greater Poland, summer and autumn were also very dry; it did not rain until the beginning of winter. Rivers were exceedingly low, brooks, ponds, and wells dried up and the land was desiccated to dust (Rojecki et al., 1965). … water levels were low everywhere; it was even possible to ride or walk across the River Rhine. — Brazdil et al Best horror story goes to the 1535 famine in Transylvania So great was the hunger that people of both sexes and all ages lost their minds, walking around almost naked and consuming “unclean things”. Bethlen also mentioned cannibalism. Thousands of people starved to death. Corpses could be encountered on the streets, their mouths full of grass (Bethlen, 1782). In Făgăraş, desperate poor people turned to eating dead dogs and cats (Trauschenfels, 1860). When streams and rivers fell or dried out, it became difficult or impossible to grind grain in regions that relied upon water mills. For example, the dry summer of 1536 forced the Erfurt municipality to consider the creation of a Rossmühle, a mill powered by horses (von Falckenstein, 1738). — Brazdil et al The driest decade of the past 5 centuries A New “Drought Atlas” Tracks Europe’s Extreme Weather Through History Sarah Zielinski, The Smithsonian Magazine Reconstructions based on documentary data indicate that the summers of 1531–1540 were the driest summer decade in central Europe of the past 5 centuries… …during the extremely hot, dry summer of 1540 in the Netherlands, the water levels in rivers were so low that people could cross substantial rivers such as the Lys, the Scheldt, the Meuse, and the Rhine with “dry feet” (Descamps, 1852). This “Drought Atlas” is largely based on tree rings, with all their confounded flaws, but at least it’s the same proxy all the way through. No one segued it into the modern record and pretended that trees were like glass thermometers. And at least these tree rings have some other documentary support.   REFERENCES Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Bauch, M., Camenisch, C., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Oliński, P., and Řezníčková, L.: Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?, Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020. Cook, et al (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Science Advances 06 Nov 2015: Vol. 1, no. 10, e1500561    DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500561 Caption: The 1540 JJA precipitation totals in Europe expressed as percentage deviations (× 100) from the 1961–1990 mean (Pauling et al., 2006); (b) JJA scPDSI for 1540 in Europe according to OWDA (Cook et al., 2015). Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Bauch, M., Camenisch, C., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Oliński, P., and Řezníčková, L.: Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?, Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020.

No, Time Magazine, Climate Change is Not Worsening Drought

https://climaterealism.com/2022/05/no-time-magazine-climate-change-is-not-worsening-drought/ No, Time Magazine, Climate Change is Not Worsening DroughtClimateRealism / by Linnea Lueken / 4d A recent Time magazine article says human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and number of droughts around the world. These claims are false. Drought tracking data show no meaningful trend in severity or frequency of drought globally. Referencing a recent United Nations report, Time’s article, “Climate Change Will Make Droughts Longer, More Common, Says UN,” says “[t]he frequency and duration of droughts will continue to increase due to human-caused climate change, with water scarcity already affecting billions of people across the world.” This statement contradicts previous UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and is refuted by real-world data. As noted in Climate at a Glance: Drought, the United Nations reports only “low confidence” that there will be negative, that is decreasing, precipitation trends worldwide. Regarding water scarcity, the UN remarks that there is actually “high confidence” in a trend of increasing precipitation over at least the mid-latitudes of the Earth. In a Climate Realism post about the UN’s handling of water issues, James Taylor writes: “The United Nations collects over $50 billion in annual revenue. Yet, core humanitarian programs go unfunded. For example, the UN announced in August 2019 that it closed down several humanitarian programs in Yemen – including clean water programs – due to unavailable funds.” Although to the media a drought is a drought, in its 2021 Sixth Assessment report, the IPCC distinguishes four categories of drought: hydrological, meteorological, ecological, and agricultural. According to the IPCC, there is limited evidence climate change has increased the number, duration, or intensity of hydrological or meteorological droughts, and it has only medium confidence it has “contributed to changes in agricultural and ecological droughts and has led to an increase in the overall affected land area.” Even for ecological and agricultural droughts the data is a mixed bag. The IPCC divides the world into 47 separate regions of study when analyzing drought trends, and its data suggest ecological and agricultural drought may have increased during the period of modest warming in 12 of those 47 regions. However, in only two of those regions does the IPCC have even “medium confidence” for any human role in the observed increase. For the remaining regions experiencing a possible increase in droughts, the IPCC has low confidence human activities have had any discernible impact. As written before in Climate Realism, here, here, and here, droughts around the world are weather events that may last a few years, but is not unprecedented in Earth’s history, even in regions not usually associated with it like Europe. Rather than looking at peer reviewed research and real-world data Time discusses a series of anecdotes to support the claim of global warming induced worsening droughts. Time cites African villagers suffering under drought, one of whose “crops have been without rain for over a year.” Next the magazine jumps to a discussion of the Amazon rainforest claiming it is suffering substantial drought due to climate change, writing, “’[t]he same is true for the Amazon,’ the U.N. said, with three droughts occurring since the turn of the century and triggering forest fires, with climate change and deforestation also to blame.” Droughts are not uncommon in many regions of Africa, and as explored in Climate Realism here, for example and the present drought is not historically unusual. Also, as covered in Climate Realism, here, many African nations suffer from the corruption of local dictatorships, terrible mismanagement of their land, and war which compound the negative effects of extreme weather events, including the drought currently plaguing parts of the continent. Although Time acknowledges deforestation is a factor in the localized Amazonian drought, it fails to understand how localized it is, and why that is the case. As a previous Climate Realism post discussing drought in the Amazon explains, drier conditions than normal are affecting most of the Amazon. The only regions that currently suffer drought are those where deforestation has occurred. From the post: “Because internal conditions in the Amazon help produce its own climate conditions, including its persistent rainfall, only areas that have been denuded have experienced declining rainfall. In those areas, unfortunately, no longer having the jungle cover to absorb and mitigate the rainfall, when rains occur, flooding is more frequent. Even with that factored in, recent data shows rainfall has actually increased during the wet season for large portions of the Amazon basin. Time’s narrative may advance the UN’s money-hungry agenda, but does not advance the truth. Rather than conducting independent research to confirm whether the UN’s claims were true, it simply parroted the organization’s claims. Citing heartstring-tugging anecdotal stories about tragedies in the aftermath of extreme weather events like drought may sell copy and persuade their target audience, but it does nothing to further knowledge or to promote wise policy making. The post No, Time Magazine, Climate Change is Not Worsening Drought appeared first on ClimateRealism. SHAREVISIT WEBSITE

Now Will you support the Green New Deal?! Global warming could soon be end of Dijon mustard – ‘Mustard seed production fell by 28%’ due to drought

https://www.parisbeacon.com/global-warming-soon-the-end-of-dijon-mustard/ Global warming is felt even on our plates. The severe droughts that hit part of Canada last summer created a shortage and inflation that hit hard the traditional Dijon mustard industry. “In 2021-2022, it is estimated that mustard seed production fell by 28%” in Canada, the world’s largest producer, according to the latest report from the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture. “Consequently, the average price should be almost double from 2020-2021, to a record of 1,700 dollars per tonne”, or 1,510 euros, adds the ministry. A DISASTROUS DROUGHT IN THE SUMMER OF 2021 “There was a disastrous drought in Western Canada” last summer, explains Ramzy Yelda, commodities analyst. “Those who want top-of-the-range mustard will pay more,” sums up the expert. And when Canada coughs, it’s Burgundy that catches a cold, more than 7,000 km away. The French region, where the vast majority of mustard manufacturers are located, is in fact very dependent on Canadian farmers for the manufacture of this condiment, which is consumed around the world. “We are in a crisis that we have never seen for 25 years,” laments Christophe Planes, sales director for France at “Reine de Dijon”, the third French mustard producer, a subsidiary of the German group Develey. THE EXPLOSION IN THE PRICE OF SEEDS … AND PACKAGING PRODUCTS “The price of seeds has increased three or four times, and maybe five soon,” he adds. “And besides, there is no offer. The rarefaction is such that we have a potential reduction of 50% of seeds ”. “Our production is therefore less than 50%,” he says. “The shortage is there”, confirms Marika Zimmermann, industrial director of the company based near Dijon: “Normally, our production lines operate 120 hours per week. We are currently at 60 hours on average ”. The situation is all the more tense as the prices of all packaging products are soaring. “Every day, I am told an increase. The impact on overall prices is over 60%, ”says Christophe Planes. Marc Désarménien, director of the Fallot mustard factory, the last French company in the sector, lists the increases: “The metal caps of the jars have increased by 42%, the glass by 12%, the cardboard by 20%…”. Burgundy white wine, another essential ingredient, has doubled due to the late frost which severely reduced the harvest in 2021. The mustard maker, which exports half of its production to Japan, also points to the cost of sea freight “multiplied by 4.5 or even 6, which represents 10 to 15% of the selling price”. INSUFFICIENT BURGUNDY PRODUCTION Fallot has already decided for 2022 to increase its mustards of “between 7 and 16%” for 2022. Reine de Dijon also plans an increase: “we need it otherwise the company does not live”, explains Christophe Planes. To try to find a solution, the person in charge would like to limit dependence on Canada, the main supplier of seeds processed by mustard plants, and “push the production of mustard seeds in Burgundy”. “It’s impossible,” replies Fabrice Genin, mustard seed producer in Marsannaye-le-Bois, in Côte d’Or, and president of the Association of Burgundy Mustard Seed Producers (APGMB). Once very widespread, the local cultivation of seeds had made Dijon’s reputation since the Middle Ages, but recent history has been marked by a marked decline in production, due to the globalization of trade and competition from countries with higher returns. FARMERS SUFFERING FROM GLOBAL WARMING After stimulus efforts, local farmers are now suffering from global warming which, “for 3-4 years, has caused an increase in insect populations,” explains Fabrice Genin. “Sometimes we don’t have any production at all. However, the industry no longer has the right to insecticides, authorized in Canada, ”he complains. The production of Burgundy seeds has therefore been “divided by three in four years, from 12,000 tonnes to 4,000 tonnes in 2021 while the mustard plants could order 16,000 from us”, underlines the farmer. “We are afraid for the future”, summarizes Christophe Planes, of Reine de Dijon. He hopes that “2023 will be better”, but “still fears increases”.

Recent European Droughts Are Not Unprecedented, New Study Finds

https://climatechangedispatch.com/recent-european-droughts-are-not-unprecedented-new-study-finds/ BY DAVID WHITEHOUSE A new study concludes that when placed into a long-term context recent drought events in Europe are within the range of natural variability and are not unprecedented over the last millennium. The 2003 European heatwave and drought has a special place in the history of the study of our changing climate. It was the first event that scientists attributed to human-induced climate change.   A paper by Stott et al published in Nature concluded, “Human influence has at least doubled the risk of a regional heatwave like the European Summer of 2003.” This was later strengthened and the event was said to be directly caused by humans. Alongside the increasing attribution of such events to human influence has been the assertion that the incidence of droughts is on the rise, along with their human toll. Looking back at 2004, Peter Stott of the UK Met Office has written that at that time “heatwaves, floods, and droughts were on the rise.” This was a view that was at odds with the science, in 2004 and for many years afterward. In 2013 the IPCC AR5 report said there was low confidence that droughts had increased. But by AR6, just eight years later, the situation had changed. AR6 said that there was now medium confidence that droughts had increased, but then it goes on to say: “…there is low confidence that human influence has affected meteorological droughts in most regions but medium confidence that they have contributed to the severity of some specific events. “It adds that there is medium confidence that human-induced climate change has contributed to increasing trends in the probability or intensity of recent agricultural and ecological droughts.” So, AR6 has a set of contradictory stances. Some, however, exhibit no such equivocation. In the epilogue to his book “Hot Air,” Peter Stott says, “The global toll from floods, droughts, and heatwaves continues to rise at a startling rate, their increasing intensity attributable, our research shows, to human-induced climate change.” Europe in the 21st century has experienced a series of long-lasting dry and hot summers. Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) was also considered the culprit behind a heatwave and drought in Russia in 2010, and again in Europe in 2013, 2015, and 2018. There is no doubt, according to a group of scientists studying the attribution of such weather events to AGW, that they are unusual enough to have been the specific result of AGW. The website Carbon Brief labeled recent droughts as unprecedented. But are they? Writing in the journal Nature, Monica Ionita from the Alfred Wegner Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany. Along with colleagues from the Faculty of Physics, Bucharest University, the Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania, and Bremen University ask if the data is really good enough to determine if these recent events are all that unusual. They use several independent datasets, observations, paleo-data reanalysis, historical evidence, and climate/weather proxies, to gather a picture of changes over the past thousand years or so. Droughts in the past thousand years. They find that between 1901 -2012, the driest years in Europe were 1921 and 1976 and in the past thousand years, they were 1102, 1503, 1865, and 1921. During the past millennium, there were two megadroughts in Central Europe, in 1400-1480 and 1770-1840. They conclude that when placed into a long-term context recent drought events are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium. Their conclusion that recent drought events are nothing unusual stands on its own, the researchers however go further and consider their climatic influences. They note that the two megadroughts appear to be linked with a cold state of the North Atlantic Ocean and increased frontal blocking activity over the British Isles and the western part of Europe. They also note that they are also coincident with the Sporer and Dalton minima of solar activity. The researchers add that future climate projections indicate that Europe will face substantial drying, even for the least aggressive emission pathways scenarios. They say that although the greenhouse gases and their associated global warming will contribute to future drought risk their study indicates that future drought variations will also be strongly influenced by natural variations. In particular, a possible decrease in total solar irradiance over the next few decades and its concomitant effects on the earth could result in a higher frequency of drought events in central Europe, which could add to the drying induced by AGW. They recommend further work on how the combined effect of natural and anthropogenic factors will shape the drought’s magnitude and frequency. The conclusions of this research should be considered alongside claims about droughts made by some scientists involved in climate attribution studies. Some will dismiss it as being “just one paper,” but that would be unscientific. Perhaps we don’t appreciate just how variable climate is or consider too short a timescale when deciding that heatwaves, floods, and droughts are on the rise? There are statistical and philosophical questions surrounding the process of climate attribution. How does one assess what would have happened in the absence of rising greenhouse gas influence? How does one compare our planet today, with a hypothetical planet B? It’s an approach enthusiastically supported by some but not by everyone. At the recent GWPF annual lecture, Professor Steven Koonin of New York University said climate-attribution studies were the scientific equivalent of being told you had won the lottery after you had won the lottery. Read more at Net Zero Watch

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