Scientists, studies & data agree: ‘Global warming’ not fueling acceleration in sea level rise – ‘Miami Is Sinking, But That Doesn’t Mean Sea Levels Are Rising’


By: - Climate DepotJanuary 24, 2019 10:59 AM with 0 comments

The man-made climate-induced sea level rise scare is back in the news today as a Miami beach developer has correctly dismissed sea level rise scares as “paranoia.”

See: Billionaire Miami Beach Developer Dismisses Rising Sea Levels as ‘Paranoia’ – (Bloomberg) — A South Florida developer is questioning the well-established facts of climate change, and is putting his money where his mouth is, investing millions to build residential projects in highly exposed Miami Beach. Brazilian billionaire Jose Isaac Peres….is a real estate magnate and chief executive officer of shopping-center developer Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliarios SA said he isn’t factoring in the financial risk of rising sea levels… “It’s funny, that’s the last concern that I have here in Miami, that global-warming issue,” he said. “You’re leaning toward paranoia, you know?” he said, suggesting that Americans are more fixated on the study of climate change than Brazilians are. “You see a ghost, and you run after it as if it were real.” 

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Climate Depot Reality Check: The feared sea level rise in Miami and Florida has failed to materialize. The latest studies and data has scientists speaking out about the unscientific claims of man-made climate change induced sea level rise.

Analysis Debunks Absurd Sea Level Rise Claims About South Florida – Sea level rise in the Miami area is not accelerating and it is rising at a rate of about 1 foot per century.

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“Gore has previously said there has been a three-inch sea level rise since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew struck Florida. But tidal gauges and satellite altimeters show only a sea level rise of 1.2 mm per year. That would be about 28 mm since 1992, or 1.1 inches. He was off nearly 300 percent. Gore also brought up the unique phenomenon in Miami that allow “fish from the ocean to swim on the streets of Miami-Dade and Delray, Ft. Lauderdale.” But that assertion has no basis in fact, wrote the Miami Herald when President Obama made the same claim.”

 

All of the sea level rise since 1700 is insignificant relative to the natural variability of Holocene sea levels.

Sea level rise in the Miami area is not accelerating and it is rising at a rate of about 1 foot per century.

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The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 0.78 feet in 100 years. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8723170

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The mean sea level trend is 2.40 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.15 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1913 to 2016 which is equivalent to a change of 0.79 feet in 100 years. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8724580

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The mean sea level trend is 3.63 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.48 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1971 to 2016 which is equivalent to a change of 1.19 feet in 100 years. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8723970

The satellite data indicate virtually no statistically significant sea level rise in the Miami area:

I intentionally retained the “seasonal terms and mean” and did not smooth the data because the seasonal variability is real and at least 10 times the magnitude of any secular trends in sea level.

To the extent that there is a trend (R² = 0.0945), the rate of sea level rise in the Miami area is about 3 mm/yr.  This would lead to about 5.5 inches of sea level rise over the next four decades.

A review of USGS topographic maps reveals very little in the way of inundation by rising seas:

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Miami Beach, Florida topographic maps from 1950 and 1994.(USGS).

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Miami Beach topographic maps for 1950 and 1994. Note that the 5′ elevation contour has not shifted (USGS).

 

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The following is an excerpt from author Marc Morano’s new best-selling book, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change. Book excerpt from The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change – Available at Amazon & Barnes & Noble & Walmart 

(Listen & Read: Q&A with Morano on his book: ‘The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change’)

Book Excerpt:

CHAPTER 5
Sea Level 

Excerpt: Former NASA Climatologist Roy Spencer explained in 2016, “Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every 10 years. If a major hurricane is approaching with a predicted storm surge of 10–14 feet, are you really going to worry about a sea level rise of 1 inch per decade?”

A 2013 study in the journal Global and Planetary Change found that global sea level rise decelerated 44 percent since 2004 to a rate of only 7 inches per century.

“If you look at the total global sea level from about 1850 until the present time it’s been rising at a fairly constant rate, rather slow—about 7 inches a century…. It’s about 1 to 2 mm a year so if you’re 50 years old you experienced a sea level rise about 3 ½ inches and you probably didn’t even notice it,” geologist Easterbrook has explained.

“Sea has risen four hundred twenty feet since the end of last of glaciation period. And none of that had anything to do with people,” Greenpeace cofounder Patrick Moore points out.
“Today it’s only rising by few millimeters a year. I believe almost entirely due to natural causes which mean going on throughout the history of the earth.”

Sea level expert Nils-Axel Mörner, a geologist who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, ridiculed the claim in Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth that Florida would be half covered by rising seas. “These are models. They are doing it wrongly, and this is lobbying. Geologic facts are on one side, lobbying and models are on the other side.” Morner added, “The rapid rise in sea levels predicted by computer models simply cannot happen.”

The climate change debate is complicated by the existence of dueling data sets. Global temperature, for example, can be measured by satellites, or by weather balloons, or by surface
thermometers. And those different measures may not agree. In the case of sea level, you can pick tide gauges or satellite altimeter measurements.
According to NASA, regular record keeping of tide gauge data did not start until the late eighteenth century in the Northern Hemisphere and the late nineteenth century in
the Southern Hemisphere.62

The tide gauges show sea level rising at a rate of less than the thickness of one nickel per year. If you want to show more pronounced sea level rise, you can use the adjusted satellite altimeter data, which began in 1992. The satellite data show sea level rising at twice the rate of tide gauges or slightly more than two pennies a year.

German meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls analyzed the sea level data in 2014: “Numerous evaluations of coastal-level measurements over 200 years, and more recently by gravity measurements of the GRACE satellites, demonstrate again and again a sea rise of about 1.6 mm/yr [note: A U.S. penny is 1.52 mm thick]. In contrast, the published—since 1992 altimeter measurements with the satellite systems TOPEX / POSEIDON / JASON—are twice as high values of 3.2 mm/yr. The significant discrepancy is still unclear.”

Geologist Robert Giegengack explains, “At the present rate of sea-level rise it’s going to take 3,500 years to get up there [to Gore’s predicted rise of 20 feet]. So if for some reason this
warming process that melts ice is cutting loose and accelerating, sea level doesn’t know it. And sea level, we think, is the best indicator of global warming.”

Climatologist Judith Curry, formerly of Georgia Institute of Technology, said, “Sea level will continue to rise, no matter what we do about CO2 emissions.”

Meteorologist Tom Wysmuller has noted: “For the past 130 years there has been ZERO acceleration in sea-level rise as directly measured by tide gauges in tectonically inert areas (land
neither moving up nor down), even as CO2 has risen almost 40% in the same period.” Other studies of the Pacific Islands have found similar results. A 2010 study found the “Pacific islands growing, not sinking.” A report in Australia’s ABC News noted “Climate scientists have expressed surprise at findings that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing,
not sinking.”

“Islands in Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia are among those which have grown, largely due to coral debris, land reclamation and sediment. The findings, published in the magazine New Scientist, were gathered by comparing changes to 27 Pacific islands over the last 20 to 60 years using historical aerial photos and satellite images,” the newspaper reported. “Eighty per cent of the islands we’ve looked at have either remained about the same or, in fact, gotten larger,” the study’s author, Auckland University’s Associate Professor Paul Kench, found. “Some of those islands have gotten dramatically larger, by 20 or 30 per cent…. We’ve now got evidence the physical foundations of these islands will still be there in 100 years.’” (ALSO SEE: Climate Con Exposed: Real Estate Prices In Tuvalu Unaffected By Impending Sea Level Rise Armageddon)

“Entirely without Merit”

“I find the Doomsday picture Al Gore is painting—a six-meter sea level rise, fifteen times the IPCC number—entirely without merit.” —atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, former director of research at The Netherlands’ Royal National Meteorological Institute

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Excerpt from 2017 report: Fact-Checking & Review of Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Sequel’ – Official Gore Sequel Rebuttal – Special Report

Gore sequel claim: Global warming causing fish to swim in streets of Miami – I went down to Miami and saw fish from the ocean swimming in the streets on a sunny day. The same thing was true in Honolulu just two days ago, just from high tides because of the sea level rise now.”  Miami has unprecedented flooding and fish are now swimming in the streets. Gore in his sequel and in numerous media interviews hypes the fact that Miami has “fish from the ocean” swimming in “the streets of Miami-Dade and Delray, Ft. Lauderdale.” The film features Gore walking around the flooded streets of Miami with big boots on.

Reality Check: Gore very cleverly tries to present his “science by anecdote” in the sequel. Instead of showing scientific charts revealing the alleged acceleration of sea levels in Miami due to man-made global warming, Gore instead has a man in the film just say he has lived there all his life and never saw anything like it. That is Al Gore’s version of “scientific truth.” (And a very common “error” in the climate change debate. See: Flashback 1933 : Australia’s Chief Weather Expert: Belief In Climate Change Is An ‘Error Of Human Memory’ – ‘When people compare the present with the past, they remember only the abnormal’

But lucky for readers of this report, scientific data is available and trumps a man’s recollection of 40 years ago.

Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer debunked Gore’s claims on Miami and sea level. “One of Gore’s favorite tactics is to show something that happens naturally, then claim (or have you infer) that it is due to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions,” Spencer wrote. “For example, sea level rise. Gore is seen surveying flooded streets in Miami Beach,” Spencer added.

Spencer: “That flooding is mostly a combination of (1) natural sea level rise (I show there has been no acceleration of sea level rise beyond what was already happening since the 1800s), and (2) satellite-measured sinking of the reclaimed swamps that have been built upon for over 100 years in Miami Beach.”

Spencer concluded: “In other words, Miami Beach was going to have to deal with the increasing flooding from their ‘king tides’, with or without carbon dioxide emissions.”

“Miami Beach occurs during high tides called ‘king tides,’ due to the alignment of the Earth, sun and moon. For decades they have been getting worse in low-lying areas of Miami Beach where buildings were being built on reclaimed swampland,” Spencer added.

As the Daily Caller has reported, “Miami Is Sinking, But That Doesn’t Mean Sea Levels Are Rising” –”The problem is caused by a naturally occurring event known as a king tide, a rare event when the sun and moon align on the same side of the Earth during a high tide, and the extra gravitational pull produces tides much higher than normal.”

Miami Beach Public Relations Manager Melissa Berthier told The Daily Caller News Foundation that “flooding only happens during ‘king tides,’” which take place around April and October. She did go on to say that if enough rain falls during high tide, light flooding can occur. But reiterated floods do not happen as a normal occurrence during Miami Beach’s high tides. King tides happen when the sun and moon align on the same side of the Earth, and their resulting combined gravitational pull produces tides much higher than normal. Berthier said king tides bring flooding to Miami Beach twice a year, with the fall tide being “more severe” than the spring. Witness King Tides says on its website that “[King tides] aren’t part of climate change; they are a natural part of tidal cycles.” For reference, Miami receives just under 52 inches of rain a year, according to U.S. climate data.

 

When a reporter challenged Gore about his sea level rise claims in Miami, Gore was not tolerant. See: ‘You are a denier’ Gore abruptly ends UK reporter’s Q&A after question on sea level  UK Spectator journalist Ross Clark on his encounter with Gore: “As soon as I mention Professor Wdowinski’s name, he counters: ‘Never heard of him — is he a denier?’ Then, as I continue to make the point, he starts to answer before directing it at me: ‘Are you a denier?’ When I say I am sure that climate change is a problem, but how big a one I don’t know, he jumps in: ‘You are a denier.’ That is a strange interpretation of the word ‘deny’, I try to say. But his PR team moves in and declares ‘Time’s up’, and I am left feeling like the guy in Monty Python who paid for a five-minute argument and was allowed only 30 seconds. On the way out, a frosty PR woman says to me: ‘Can I have a word with you?’ I wasn’t supposed to ask difficult questions, she says, because ‘this is a film junket, to promote the film.’”

Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age ended more than 10,000 years ago. There is currently no acceleration in sea level rise.

New Study: Tide gages find no global ‘acceleration in sea level’ – But satellite data ‘manipulated’ to show acceleration – Study concludes: “Up to the present, there has been no convincing recording of any acceleration in sea level, rather the opposite: a total lack of any sign of an accelerating trend.” Study also finds satellite sea level rise data “manipulated” to show acceleration: “Satellite altimetry is a new elegant tool to view the changes in sea level over the globe…The temporal changes, on the other hand, has always remained very questionable as they seem to over-estimate observed sea level changes by 100-400% [9-16]

Sea level rise hysteria can be cured by looking at tide gauge data

New Video: Tony Heller debunks ‘superstition’: ‘Is Manhattan Going To Drown Due To Global Warming’

Sea Level 2000 years ago higher than today? Roman coastline discovered two miles inland

Bjorn Lomborg About Those Non-Disappearing Pacific Islands – ‘Total land area of the islands has actually grown’

Former NASA Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer in 2016: “Sea level rise, which was occurring long before humans could be blamed, has not accelerated and still amounts to only 1 inch every ten years. If a major hurricane is approaching with a predicted storm surge of 10-14 feet, are you really going to worry about a sea level rise of 1 inch per decade?

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry of Georgia Institute of Technology: ‘Sea level will continue to rise, no matter what we do about CO2 emissions.’ – ‘The IPCC figure 3.14 suggests that there is no acceleration, given the large rates of sea level rise in the first half of the 20th century.  Until we have an understanding of variations in decadal and multi-decadal sea level rise, we can’t make a convincing argument as to acceleration.’

Meteorologist Tom Wysmuller: ‘For the past 130 years there has been ZERO acceleration in sea-level rise as directly measured by tide gauges in tectonically inert areas (land neither moving up nor down), even as CO2 has risen almost 40% in the same period.’

Peer-Reviewed Studies Demolish Warmists’ Sea Level Rise Scares: ‘Decelerated 44% since 2004′ – ‘Global sea levels have been naturally rising for ~20,000 years and have decelerated over the past 8,000 years, decelerated over the 20th centurydecelerated 31% since 2002 and decelerated 44% since 2004 to less than 7 inches per century. There is no evidence of an acceleration of sea level rise, and therefore no evidence of any effect of mankind on sea levels.

Global sea level rise from tide gauges (1.6 mm/year) is half of that claimed from satellites (3.2 mm/year). Which is right? – ‘There is no acceleration of the increase’ – [Climate Depot Note: According to tide gauges, Sea Level is rising LESS than the thickness of one nickel (1.95 mm thick) per year or about the thickness of one penny (1.52 mm thick) a year. According to satellite info it is rising slightly more than two pennies a year (3.04 mm)]

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Former NASA scientist James Hansen on NBC’s Nightly News: “Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, Miami. They would all be under water.UN IPCC’s Michael Oppenheimer on ABC News, 20/20: “If the sea level rise occurred fast enough, some major cities might have to be abandoned, like, for instance, London.”  (Both of above clips  of Hansen & Oppenheimer appeared in Climate Hustle film. )

John Stossel rips sequel for ‘typical Al Gore scaremongering’– ‘Gore won’t talk to me. He won’t debate anyone’