Pielke Jr.: "How anyone can get away with looking at 29 years of economic data to make claims of attribution is beyond me...At the same time the dramatic reduction in flood losses as a proportion of GDP is a major policy success of the past century...More precip, by itself, means neither more flooding nor more damage."
But Bjorn Lomborg rebuts: "Tremendously misleading. The number of billion-dollar disasters will of course increase as society gets richer. When corrected for increased wealth, the world and the US are not seeing increasing damages (but insignificantly *decreasing* damages)." - "Despite breathless climate reporting, the relative cost of global weather catastrophes 1990-2020 not increasing (actually insignificantly decreasing)."
Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: "NOAA is a great agency & contributes massively to saving life and property. It is thus so embarrassing that they dabble in bad economics for media catnip and clicks. Everything you hear about 'billion $ disasters' is wrong."
Meteorologist Anthony Watts: "New data shows the global climate-related death risk has dropped by over 99% since 1920. Despite the near constant caterwauling from climate alarmists that we are in a “climate emergency”, real-world data, release at the end of 2020 shows that climate related deaths are now approaching zero. The data spans 100 years of “global warming” back to 1920 and shows “climate related” deaths now approaching zero. Above is an update of the graph in the 2020 peer-reviewed article by Bjørn Lomborg: Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies."
Bjorn Lomborg reports: “Back in the 1920s, the death count from climate-related disasters was 485,000 on average every year. In the last full decade, 2010-2019, the average was 18,357 dead per year or 96% lower. In the first year of the new decade, 2020, the preliminary number of dead was even lower at 8,086 — 98% lower than the 1920s average.
But because the world’s population also quadrupled at the same time, the climate-related *death risk* has dropped even faster. The death risk is the probability of you dying in any one year. In the 1920s, it was 243 out of a million people that would die from climate-related disasters. In the 2010s, the risk was just 2.5 per million people — a drop of 99%. Now, in 2020, the preliminary number is 1 per million — 99.6% lower.”
Bjorn Lomborg: Droughts: For drought, the IPCC concludes “there is low confidence in attributing changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century to human influence” (IPCC 2013a, 871). Moreover, it concludes “there is low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought” with drought having “likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and likely decreased in central North America and northwest Australia since 1950” (IPCC 2013a, 50). The IPCC repudiated previous findings from 2007, saying our “conclusions regarding global increasing trends in droughts since the 1970s are no longer supported” (IPCC 2013a, 44). This was because new data showed no increased global drought (Sheffield et al., 2012; van der Schrier et al. 2013), and one study even showed a persistent decline since 1982 (Hao et al., 2014), while the number of consecutive dry days has been declining for the last 90 years (Donat et al., 2013, 2112).
Floods: The USGCRP summarizes the IPCC to say they “did not attribute changes in flooding to anthropogenic influence nor report detectable changes in flooding magnitude, duration, or frequency” (USGCRP 2017, 240).
Wildfires: While deforestation has reduced the amount of forests, it is likely that fires in forests have declined even in percentage of the remaining forest areas across the past century.
Hurricanes: The IPCC concludes that we cannot confidently attribute hurricanes to human influence: “There is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence” (IPCC 2013a, 871). Indeed, globally, hurricanes are not getting more frequent: “current data sets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century” (
Sea level: Globally, over the past 30 years, rising sea levels have not resulted in more land underwater. Adding up all the coastal land lost and reclaimed, it turns out that the total coastal area has increased by more than 13,000 km² (Donchyts et al., 2016). This is perhaps most visibly the world's largest coast reclamation of the 80 km² of Palm Island and adjacent islands along the coast of Dubai, but across the world, many countries have shaped and extended their coastlines by land reclamation. Bangladesh, despite popular understanding, has net added about 480 km² of land in the face of sea level rise.
In short, the US climate is in most ways less extreme than it used to be. Temperatures are less extreme at both ends of the scale, storms less severe and droughts far less damaging. While it is now slightly warmer, this appears to have been largely beneficial.
Wildfires now burn only a fraction of the acreage they did prior to WW2
Sea-level rise is currently no higher than around the mid-20th century
Tornadoes are now less common than they used to be, particularly the stronger ones.
Floods are not getting worse
Hurricanes are not becoming either more frequent or powerful.
Summers were hotter in the 1930s than in any recent years.
Little or no rise in temperatures since the mid-1990s.
Meteorologist Joe D'Aleo rebuttal: "Arctic warming and the melting of the arctic ice are not at all unprecedented (they happen predictably on multidecadal scales with a period of around 60 years) and are in fact entirely natural." ...
"Greenland data suggests the recent warming falls far short of earlier warming periods during the current interglacial and short of the warming early in the 20th century. The Antarctic has cooled and ice has increased in recent years although volcanism near the Antarctic peninsula leads to local water warmth and sea ice melting. Prior to the recent melting, the ice cover reached a long-term record high." ...
"Also we should note that the prescribed melting reported in the Science Journal can’t be claimed a long time record as global ocean data prior to the satellite (1980) and Argo Buoy era (post 2004) is spotty at best. Even if the claims about water released were true, computations show global sea level would rise just 4 inches/century (agreeing with global data) and not the up to 24 feet promised decades ago."
Marc Morano: "Policies that promote a massive expansion of U.S. domestic energy production is one of the best safeguards against engaging in 'an endless parade' of wars and interventions over energy supplies. Thanks to the Trump administration’s America First energy policy, the U.S. no longer needs to start or fight in wars over energy. America has its own domestically produced energy to rely on." ...
"In 2019, “U.S. energy exports exceeded imports for the first time since 1952,” the EIA reported. The EIA also reported, 'In 2019, U.S. energy production exceeded energy consumption for the first time since 1957,' when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president. Trump’s energy achievements were so off the charts that the last time the U.S. saw this kind of energy dominance was when Harry S. Truman was president in 1952! President Trump accomplished all of this while the U.S. continued to lead the world in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. ...
"The proposed climate 'solutions' of the Green New Deal and the Biden administration's climate and energy executive orders is a threat to U.S. national security as the plan would only serve to shrink U.S. energy production and increase our dependence on Middle Eastern oil and force us to rely on energy from other potentially hostile nations, which could increase the odds of future wars." ...
"By restricting fossil fuels and mandating solar, wind and electric vehicles will result in more environmental degradation due to increasing the U.S. dependence on rare earth mining operated by China and Russia."