Kerry Emanuel claims: "Economic damage, normalized by world domestic product... from weather-related natural disasters have been increasing greatly."
Dr. Pielke responds: "This is incontrovertibly false. Contrary to Emanuel's claims, this metric is not "increasing greatly" (actually it is not even increasing)
"In fact, every study that has looked at global economic losses after normalization (for GDP or other factors) has consistently failed to identify any increase in losses at all."
Emanuel also writes: "There is strong and mounting evidence that climate change is increasing... the incidence of strong hurricanes."
Pielke Jr. responds: "Yet a recent WMO assessment polled its authors & concluded (image) no increase (so how can there be more disasters?)"
Kerry Emanuel has every right to his opinions, of course. But he should attend to his own factual accuracy before claiming (falsely) that "Michael Shellenberger's statement is not defensible" & "is patently false."
WAPO: We have to "manage our expectations," researchers warn.
"The young climate activists clamoring today for rapid cuts to the world’s fossil fuel emissions could be well into their 30s or 40s before the impact of those changes becomes apparent, scientists said in a study published Tuesday. As if curbing climate change wasn’t tough enough already, the new research finds that even if humans sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions now — cutting carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants by at least 5 percent or more a year — it could still take decades before it’s clear those actions are beginning to slow the rate of the Earth’s warming. ...
Even with an immediate halt to all carbon dioxide emissions, the study found that proof of a change would probably not emerge until 2033...
Countries around the world have agreed in principle to slash their emissions over time as part of the Paris climate accord, but it remains uncertain whether there will be political pressure to pull back if the impacts aren’t immediately visible."
Dinesh D'Souza responds: "What an incredible racket the climate brigade has created. Not only have their models been wildly wrong for DECADES, but now they say they won't even be able to prove their ideas work for 3 more decades! No accountability and no dissent allowed."
Germany is failing to meet its climate goals of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions even after spending over $580 billion by 2025 to overhaul its energy systems. Germany’s emissions miss should be a “wake-up call” for governments everywhere.
Today, German households pay almost 50% more for electricity than they did in 2006 as power prices in Germany are now among the highest in Europe. Much of that increase in electricity cost is the Renewable Surcharge that has increased over the same period by 770%. Germany has learned that clean energy is not energy in totality as wind and solar only provide renewable electricity, and more accurately its only intermittent electricity at best. Renewables have also been the primary driver behind the high costs of electricity for residents of Australia and California.
Michael Shellenberger on the Biden-Sanders climate plan: "Unscientifically blames climate change for flood, storm, & fire, damage
"Climate change is not making disasters worse. How could it be? *Disasters aren't getting worse.* They are getting better. Deaths from disasters has declined 90+%. Costs of disasters not rising, when one accounts for rising wealth. Just look at Miami Beach"
- Would raise energy prices & increase unemployment
- Would kill off nuclear, largest source of clean nrg
- Would increase killing of bald eagles & whooping cranes
"What you're proposing, @AOC @JohnKerry @JoeBiden @BernieSanders is extremely radical, terrible for workers, and terrible for the environment. And we tried it already. Before the Green New Deal, I helped create the New Apollo Project. It was a disaster."
New peer-reviewed study in journal Environmental Hazards by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. - Economic “Normalization” of Disaster Losses 1998-2020: A Literature Review and Assessment
"A few years in the making, a robust peer review process": "A very strong, bottom-line conclusion across the normalization literature is that evidence signal of human-caused climate change in the form of increased global economic losses from more frequent or more intense weather extremes has not yet been detected."
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.: " Of these 54 studies: 53 focus on weather or climate 39 find no trends after normalization 8 find decreasing trends 5 find increasing 1 finds mixed trends