Search Results for “Grand Solar Minimum”

Physicist: Upcoming Grand Solar Minimum Could Wipe Out Global Warming for Decades

October 5, 2020

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2020/10/5/upcoming-grand-solar-minimum-could-wipe-out-global-warming-for-decades-62 Unknown to most people except those with an interest in solar science, the sun is about to shut down. Well, not completely – we’ll still have plenty of sunlight and heat, but the small dark blotches on the sun’s surface called sunspots, visible in the figure below, are on the verge of disappearing. According to some climate scientists, this heralds a prolonged cold stretch of maybe 35 years starting in 2020, despite global warming. How could that happen? Because sunspots, which are caused by magnetic turbulence in the sun’s interior, signal subtle changes in solar output or activity – changes that can have a significant effect on the earth’s climate. Together with the sun’s heat and light, the monthly or yearly number of sunspots goes up and down during the approximately 11-year solar cycle. For several decades now, the maximum number of sunspots seen in a cycle has been declining. The last time sunspots disappeared altogether was during the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year cool period in the 17th and 18th centuries forming part of the Little Ice Age, and illustrated in the next figure showing the sunspot number over time. The Maunder Minimum from approximately 1645 to 1710 was the most recent occurrence of what are known as grand solar minima, or periods of very low solar activity, that recur every 350 to 400 years. So we’re due for another minimum. Northumbria University’s Valentina Zharkova, a researcher who’s published several papers on sunspots and grand solar minima, has linked the minima to a drastic falloff in the sun’s internal magnetic field. The roughly 70% downswing in magnetic field from its average value is part of a 350- to 400-year cycle arising from regular variations in behavior of the very hot plasma powering our sun. In between grand solar minima come grand solar maxima, when the magnetic field and number of sunspots reach their highest values. The most recent (“modern”) grand solar maximum, even though slightly lopsided, is represented by the blue peaks in the figure above. The figure below shows Zharkova’s calculated magnitude of the magnetic field from 1975 to 2040, which is seen to diminish as the minimum approaches. Her calculations predict that the upcoming grand solar minimum will last from 2020 to 2053, with global temperatures dropping by up to 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the late 2030s. That’s as much as the world has warmed since preindustrial times, and only 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the frigid temperatures recorded in 1710 at the end of the Maunder Minimum. The Maunder Minimum was unquestionably chilly: alpine glaciers in Europe encroached on farmland; the Netherlands’ canals froze every winter; and frost fairs on the UK’s frozen Thames River became a common sight. Solar scientists have calculated that the sun’s heat and light output, a quantity known as the total solar irradiance, decreased by 0.22% during the Maunder minimum, which is about four times its normal rise or fall over an 11-year cycle. Other solar researchers have also predicted an imminent grand solar minimum, but for different reasons. One of the earliest predictions was by German astronomer and scholar, Theodor Landscheidt, in 2003. Landscheidt predicted a protracted cold period centered on the year 2030, based on his observations of an 87-year solar cycle known as a Gleissberg cycle, which has been linked to regional climate fluctuations such as flooding of the Nile River in Africa. A more recent prediction, based on a longer 210-year solar cycle, is that of Russian astrophysicist Habibullo Abdussamatov. He projects a more extended period of global cooling than either Zharkova or Landscheidt, lasting as long as 65 years, with the coldest interval around 2043. Not all solar scientists agree with such predictions. Although NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has recognized that sunspot numbers are falling and may approach zero in the 2030s, the international Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel forecasts that the sunspot number will remain the same in the coming 11-year cycle (Cycle 25) as it was in the cycle just completed (Cycle 24). Declaring that the recent decline in sunspot number is at an end, panel co-chair and solar physicist Lisa Upton says: “There is no indication we are approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.” But if the predictions of Zharkova and others are correct, tough times are ahead. A relatively sudden drop in temperature of 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) would have drastic effects on agriculture, causing crop failures and widespread hunger – as occurred during the Maunder Minimum. And the need for extra heating in both hemispheres would come at a time when it’s likely that much of our heating capacity, supplied largely by fossil fuels, will have been eliminated in the name of combating climate change.

Astrophysicist Asserts The Globe Will Cool ~1°C During 2020-2053 Due To An Oncoming Grand Solar Minimum

August 28, 2020

https://notrickszone.com/2020/08/27/astrophysicist-asserts-the-globe-will-cool-1c-during-2020-2053-due-to-an-oncoming-grand-solar-minimum/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=astrophysicist-asserts-the-globe-will-cool-1c-during-2020-2053-due-to-an-oncoming-grand-solar-minimum Astrophysicist Asserts The Globe Will Cool ~1°C During 2020-2053 Due To An Oncoming Grand Solar Minimum NoTricksZone: Not here to worship what i… / by Kenneth Richard / 1d During the last Grand Solar Minimum (17th century), global surface temperatures dipped to the coldest of the last 10,000 years – about 1.4°C colder than today. Dr. Zharkova, an astrophysicist, has determined another imminent drop in solar activity will lead to a 1°C cooling in the coming decades. From 1645 to 1710, the Sun went into a quiet phase referred to as the Maunder Minimum. During this period, the “surface temperature of the Earth was reduced all over the Globe” (Zharkova, 2020). Cold summers and winters ensued, with glaciers extending onto farmland, sea ice expanding beyond the Arctic, and “frost fairs” on frozen rivers in Europe. . The coldest temperatures and most expansive ice extent (glaciers, permafrost, sea ice) of the last 10,000 years occurred during both this period and the surrounding centuries – often referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Glazer et al., 2020, Geirsdottir et al., 2019). Image Source: Glazer et al., 2020 Image Source: Geirsdottir et al., 2019 In a new paper, Dr. Valentina Zharkova asserts that during solar cycles 25-27, the Sun may return to a modern Maunder-like Grand Solar Minimum. This solar quiet phase is expected to substantially reduce the Earth’s solar magnetic field, which will, in turn, lead to an increase in cosmic rays extending into Earth’s atmosphere and thus an increase in high clouds reflecting the Sun’s radiation back to space. The consequence? A reduction in global temperatures to just 0.4°C above what they were in 1710. The role of atmospheric CO2 as a temperature-driving mechanism is not mentioned in the paper. Image Source: Zharkova, 2020 SHAREVISIT WEBSITE

Grand Solar Minimums though history have caused civilisations to fall and others to rise

October 26, 2019

https://www.iceagenow.info/grand-solar-minimums-though-history-have-caused-civilisations-to-fall-and-others-to-rise/ Grand Solar Minimums though history have caused civilisations to fall and others to rise. Ice Age Now / by Robert / 11h Along with mass migrations ____________ Grand Solar Minimums though history have caused civilisations to fall and others to rise J.H. Walker You could argue that the westward migration of the Hun, Angles, Saxons and Franks into Eastern France, and the Normans (Norwegians) into Northwestern France were due to cold-climate changes stemming from the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) period from 585 to 630AD and other Grand Solar Minimums (GSMs) since. That LALIA cold-climate-change period started the movement of many of the then Russian steppes horse tribes westward over a three-hundred year migration on foot and horse. It also created the conditions for the rise of Islam and ability of Middle Eastern grasslands to support horses for their light cavalry tactics. The descendants of the European migrating tribes formed new nations and recommenced the move westward via sea during the next series of GSMs (which form the Little Ice Age) to what they hoped was an empty continent, but was already occupied by similar human migrants moving eastward via the glaciation land bridges. The post Grand Solar Minimums though history have caused civilisations to fall and others to rise. appeared first on Ice Age Now. SHAREVISIT WEBSITE

Approaching ‘grand solar minimum’ could cause global cooling

March 19, 2018

Anthony Watts / 1 day ago March 18, 2018 There’s a lot of evidence mounting that solar cycle 25 will usher in a new grand solar minimum. Since about October 2005, when the sun’s magnetic activity went into a sharp fall, solar activity has been markedly lower, with solar cycle 24 being the lowest in over 100 years. Interplanetary magnetic field – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Solar cycle 24 – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Cycle 24 is part of a weakening progression of solar cycles since 1980: Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Last day shown: 28 February 2018. Last diagram update: 1 March 2018. (Credit climate4you.com) Meteorologist Paul Dorian at Vencore weather writes: All indications are that the upcoming solar minimum which is expected to begin in 2019 may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. Some scientists are even saying that we are on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum, and the upcoming cycle 25 may have even lower cycles after it.

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘Arguments for a forthcoming Grand Solar Minimum are increasingly compelling’

June 30, 2016

Solar Physicist Dr. C. de Jager predicts Grand Solar Minimum will last until 2100

June 19, 2011

German Researcher On Possible Consequences Of A Solar Grand Minimum…”Weakest Cycle In Almost 200 Years”

July 18, 2013

German Researcher On Possible Consequences Of A Solar Grand Minimum…”Weakest Cycle In Almost 200 Years” http://notrickszone.com/2013/07/14/german-researcher-on-possible-consequences-of-a-solar-grand-minimum-weakest-cycle-in-almost-200-years/ Die kalte Sonne website presents an article on a potential approaching solar grand minimum. The Sun in June 2013 – on the way to a grand minimum? New study on the possible consequencesn by Frank Bosse Solar activity has also been very modest this month. One has been able to observe only 48% of the mean value of the activity of the previous cycles for the current cycle, the sunspot number was only 52,5. Here’s how it looks graphically: Sunspot number (SSN) versus months after the start of the cycle. With respect to the previous month, with 78.7 it is a significant decrease. This is clear when compared to Cycle No. 5, which here has long been used as a reference for a weak 11 year Schwabe cycle. In the middle curve it is plain to see that statistically, the maximum is already passed. And in the case of the current SC24? An anyswer may be provided by the polar magnetic field of the sun, the poles reverse at the maximum: Source: leif.org The difference between the field strength of the northern and southern polar fields has clearly reversed signs, meaning the SC24′s maximum is most likely history. It had already occurred in November 1997 with a SSN of 96.7 . The comparison of the summed sunspot anomaly taking into account the the discontinuity of the counting method about 1945 shows that the current SC 24 is the weakest in almost 200 years: In our monthly series in consideration of solar activity, a number of authors have been brought up who think it’s probable that the sun is headed for a grand minimum similar to the Maunder- Minimums of 1649-1715. That may already manifest itself in 2020. There have already been studies that attempt to project the impacts on global temperatures. Included here is a study from Meehl et al. 2013. As an input the authors look at an approximately 0.25% reduction in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) between 2020 and 2070: Source: Meehl et al. 2013 They fed this into a climate model. Result: global temperatures could drop around 0,2…0,3 degrees Celsius with local peak values of up to 0.8°C, especially in the middle and upper latitudes of the northern hemispheres: Source: Figure 3c of Meehl et al. 2013. The model used by Meehl et al. employs a high climate sensitivity with respect to greenhouse gases, foremost CO2, and it is thus little wonder that the shown cooling with respect to the warming on top of it in the simulation only has a temporary effect and a moderate braking effect. The questions that a critical observer may ask are the following: Is the magnitude of sensitivity with regards to GHG in the model really assured when we consider the current stagnation of global temperatures since at least 2011 – while CO2 has steadily increased? Is the TSI in the paper, viewed as the “motor”, solely what one could expect to act or does spectral variation (especially UV) make an additional contribution? The same needs to be asked about the significantly increasing galactic cosmic radiation. We see: Forecasts are very difficult – especially when they concern the future.”

We May Be Entering a Deep Solar Minimum as the Sun Goes Unusually Quiet

May 19, 2020

http://co2coalition.org/2020/05/18/we-may-be-entering-a-deep-solar-minimum-as-the-sun-goes-unusually-quiet/ We May Be Entering a Deep Solar Minimum as the Sun Goes Unusually Quiet CO2 Coalition / by CO2Coalition / 19h By Hannah Osborne The sun has entered an unusually quiet period, with the number of sunspots appearing on the surface unusually low. This level of activity is so low, some scientists have suggested we may be entering a “deep” solar minimum, and potentially even a Grand Minimum—the last of which took place in the 17th century and coincided with a mini ice age. The sun has an 11-year cycle where activity waxes and wanes. This is caused by the strengthening and weakening of its magnetic field. The point when activity is highest is known as the solar maximum, which is characterized by more sunspots appearing on the surface. The solar minimum is where activity falls, and far fewer sunspots appear. The last solar maximum peaked in 2014. In April last year, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the forthcoming solar minimum would be similar to the last cycle. In a statement, Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp, said the next solar cycle would be much like the last, with a weak maximum and a “long, deep minimum.” However, she also said there was “no indication” we are approaching a solar minimum in line with the last Grand Minimum—known as the Maunder Minimum. So far this year, there have been 104 days where no sunspots have appeared on the sun’s surface, according to SpaceWeather.com. Across the whole of 2019, there were 281 sunspot-free days. As the website notes, the lack of activity on the sun suggests the solar minimum is taking place. “So far this year, the sun has been blank 76 percent of the time, a rate surpassed only once before in the Space Age,” it said. “Last year, 2019, the sun was blank 77 percent of the time. Two consecutive years of record-setting spotlessness adds up to a very deep Solar Minimum, indeed.” Mathew Owens, Professor of Space Physics at the University of Reading, U.K., told Newsweek that entering a solar minimum is not unusual, but the level of activity currently taking place is out of the ordinary. “The Sun has been ‘spotless’ for a large fraction of the last year, which is indeed quieter than is typical,” he said in an email. “It’s still a little early to say where it fits relative to other minima we’ve seen. If it does continue in this fashion, it may well rank up there with the longer minima on record. But at present it is not unprecedented; in fact, the very previous solar minimum [2009-2010] was longer.” The Maunder Minimum was the period between 1650 to 1715 when solar activity was extremely low. It is sometimes associated with a period of global cooling, where the global temperature was around one degree Celsius cooler than it was at the start of the Industrial Revolution. Solar minimums in the sun’s normal cycle have little to no effect on Earth’s temperature, with energy output from the Sun only dropping by around 0.1 percent. Joanna Haigh, author of The Sun’s Influence on Climate, who recently retired from the Department of Physics at Imperial College London, said that beneath the sun’s normal 11-year cycle is “a longer term variation in solar activity when the sun goes between Grand Maxima and Grand Minima.” This, she said, could be called a deep minimum. “The sun has been declining in overall activity recently, the number of days with zero sunspots is well above average, and some solar physicists have predicted that the sun is heading for another Grand Minimum,” she told Newsweek in an email. “The Earth’s surface temperature during the Maunder Minimum was probably about 1 degree Celsius colder than the 19th century (before human-induced global warming kicked off) and that period is sometimes called The Little Ice Age. However it is difficult to ascribe all that cooling to the Sun because it just so happened that there were quite a few big volcanic eruptions during that period and they also have a cooling effect.” Haigh said in terms of global temperatures, the solar minimum is little to worry about. If anything, it could help slightly mitigate current anthropogenic warming. This effect will dissipate when activity on the sun picks up again, however. Owens said he expects the sun’s quiet period to come to an end in the near future: “Based on past solar cycles, I’d expect activity to pick up very soon, in the coming few months. But the Sun can always surprise us.” This article appeared on the Newsweek website at https://www.newsweek.com/sun-deep-solar-minimum-unusually-quiet-1504795 SHAREVISIT WEBSITE

UK Paper: Solar minimum warning: Mini ice age could last until 2055 – shock warning

July 30, 2019

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1159227/weather-forecast-long-range-solar-minimum-maximum-ice-age-space-weather-news/amp THE current solar minimum could last for more than three decades which could lead to temperatures plummeting across the globe, scientists have warned. By SEAN MARTIN During a solar maximum, the Sun gives off more heat and is littered with sunspots. Less heat in a solar minimum is due to a decrease in magnetic waves. However, there are occasions when a solar minimum or maximum can go on for more than one cycle. The most famous example of this is the Maunder minimum, which saw seven decades of freezing weather, began in 1645 and lasted through to 1715, and happened when sunspots were exceedingly rare. During this period, temperatures dropped globally by 1.3 degrees celsius leading to shorter seasons and ultimately food shortages in what was called a “mini Ice Age”. Now, scientists are concerned that we could face another prolonged solar minimum again. Research from Northumbria University found that Sun’s electromagnetic activity increases and decreases on a grander scale over the course of 2,000 years. Experts at the university believe the Sun is now in the middle of a grander period of decreased electromagnetic waves, which will lead to a longer solar minimum. How the sun looks during a solar maximum (L) and minimum (Image: NASA) The researchers stated in the study published in the journal Nature: “Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one.” However, this also means the Earth will get warmer when solar activity increases, and the experts anticipate a 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2600. The team wrote: “This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5°C by 2600.

Solar Activity Flat Lines…Cycle 24 Weakest In 200 Years…Link To Recent Northern Hemisphere Ice Rebound?

April 28, 2018

Via: http://notrickszone.com/2018/04/28/solar-activity-flat-lines-cycle-24-weakest-in-200-years-link-to-recent-northern-hemisphere-ice-rebound/#sthash.ixPvP9N8.TzSRJsnv.dpbs By P Gosselin on 28. April 2018 As the current solar cycle nears an end, it will go down as the weakest in close to 200 years. And as inhabitants of the northern hemisphere dig themselves out of an especially icy and snowy winter and Arctic sea ice rebounds, it may all be in part linked to low solar activity as many scientific studies have long suggested. ================================================= The Sun in March 2018 By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated /edited by P Gosselin) In March our supplier of energy was more inactive than in the previous months. The sunspot number was only 2,5, which is only 8% of what is normal for this month into the average cycle (month 112). A sunspot was detected only on 6 of 31 days. Figure 1: The current solar cycle no. 24 (red) compared to the mean of the previous 23 recorded solar cycles (blue) and the similar solar cycle no. 5 (black). An observation made on April 10, 2018, allowed us to say that at approximately 30° southern heliospheric latitude the SDO solar research satellite saw a tiny spot (it was too small to be officially counted as a sunspot) that certainly belonged to the next approaching solar cycle no. 25. Sunspots are magnetic phenomena. The thermally conveyed plasma at the sun’s outer layer generates electric currents. Each of these currents produces a magnetic field. Depending on the direction of the current, the magnetic field is polarized and changes on the sun with each change of cycle. The SDO instrument is able to determine the polarity of the magnetic field for each sunspot, and provided this image: Figure 2: A magnetic image of the sun with the tiny spot showing the magnetic field polarity of solar cycle no. 25. Source. All spots of the still ongoing solar cycle no. 24 have opposite polarity: white section to the right and black to the left. The colors of the tiny cycle 25 spots are reversed. Is that the end of cycle 24, some 20 months before the expected month no. 132? Certainly not. And solar cycle 25 has yet to begin as more spots with the same SC 24 signature are still in the pipeline. Moreover solar cycle 24 could resemble the end of solar cycle 5, see Figure 1. In the months during a minimum, spots can appear that belong to the next cycle, as there is a transition phase where spots of both cycles appear. The solar minimum has started It can still take quite some time before the next cycle makes its debut. Whether the current solar cycle turns out to be both an especially weak one and a short one is still unknown. Historically weak solar cycles have lasted longer than strong ones, It is difficult to say if solar cycle 24 will be an exception. We’ll keep you up-to-date! Next is a comparison of the deviation from the mean (112 months into the cycle) of all the solar cycles recorded thus far since the 18th century: Figure 3: Comparison of the previous 24 solar cycles recorded since the 18th century. The current solar cycle no. 24 is the weakest in almost 200 years. Only two other cycles were weaker. For estimating the strength of the upcoming cycle 25, we regularly cast a look at the sun’s polar fields. The current data are suggesting that solar cycle 25 will be similar to the current solar cycle 24. Thus we have to anticipate that the solar activity will not be retuning to normal levels until at least 2031 – the year solar cycle 25 should end. The good news is that it is highly improbable the sun will enter a Grand Minimum, such as the one that occurred from 1645 – 1715, the period known as the Little Ice Age. =========================== As solar activity wanes, Arctic sea ice surprises It is well known that frigid phases on the planet are associated with low solar activity. A number of papers, for example, have linked the Little Ice Age of the 17th century to the low solar activity of the Maunder Minimum. Other published papers link cold winters in Europe to low solar activity as well. Now it’s sure: solar cycle 24 will go down as the weakest in close to 200 years. Thus all the news of massive snow and ice this winter over the northern hemisphere don’t come as a surprise for many scientists. “Melt season hasn’t started yet” Arctic sea ice has in fact stabilized over the past 10 years. For example Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye of KiryeNet tweeted here: “From the standpoint of Arctic sea ice volume, the melt season hasn’t started yet.” Source: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), via Kirye. At Twitter Kirye posted an excellent GIF animation to compare Arctic sea ice thickness over the past 10 years: Image sources: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), via Kirye. Though a bit below normal, clearly the Arctic ice appears to be rebounding, thus confirming a likely link to solar activity, as has been suggested by numerous scientific publications thus far. Should solar cycle 25 turn out to be a weak one, then we’ll need to worry more about more cold icy winters over the next coming years. And expect embarrassed alarmist global warming scientists to blame it on the “The Atlantic overturning“. Posted in Arctic, Cooling/Temperature, Solar Sciences | 2 Responses

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