By Ben Spencer – Science Editor – The Sunday Times
Excerpt:
…As American and Israeli bombs rain down on Iran, and Iran hits back at American allies across the Middle East.
No matter the way the conflict develops over the coming days and weeks, it is likely to have long-lasting impacts on energy prices and environmental policy. Oil prices rose 13 per cent to hit $82 a barrel yesterday – the highest level since July 2024 – in the wake of the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tanker owners suspended shipments via the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, the route of 20 per cent of the world’s oil trade. Analysts forecast that oil prices could surge to $100, which would have “a material effect on global inflation”, Alex Ralph reports.
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Unfortunately, we know what happens when energy prices go up like this. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a similar price shock triggered a cost-of-living crisis that we have still not recovered from. It also had a divisive impact on the debate around climate change, net zero and energy security, which we could see become even more polarised if the conflict in the Middle East spreads.
Two opposing narratives tend to arise when energy supplies are disrupted. The first is that decarbonisation and the race to net zero are to blame for fluctuating prices. By prioritising wind and solar while allowing our own gas supplies to dwindle, this argument goes, we have neglected energy security.
On the other side, environmentalists argue our green policies have simply not gone far enough. It is our very reliance on fossil fuels that have left us vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, they say.
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