By Taylor Herzlich
The scientific journal Nature retracted an influential paper that overestimated the economic toll of climate change – but not until after central banks around the world had used it to create risk management scenarios.
The three scientists who worked on the study on Wednesday cited “substantial” issues with the paper, which was originally published in Nature in April 2024.
The article estimated a massive 62% drop in worldwide economic output by 2100 if carbon emissions continue unabated.
The scientific journal Nature retracted an influential paper that overestimated the economic toll of climate change – but not until after central banks around the world had used it to create risk management scenarios.
The three scientists who worked on the study on Wednesday cited “substantial” issues with the paper, which was originally published in Nature in April 2024.
The article estimated a massive 62% drop in worldwide economic output by 2100 if carbon emissions continue unabated.
But earlier this year, a Nature article by a separate team of economists noted that the climate study’s findings were largely skewed by problems with the data for just one country, Uzbekistan.
If numbers for the Central Asian nation were excluded from the data set, instead of a 62% decline in economic output, there would be a 23% drop – still a big blow, but not nearly as catastrophic as initially suggested.
The faulty number – which was roughly three times typical estimates – quickly made headlines and was cited by policymakers around the world, including the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
It was also used by the Network for Greening the Financial System last year as it updated its scenarios modeling the expected economic impact of climate change.
