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Extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. on The Texas Flash Floods: ‘A tragedy that should never happen again’ – ‘Occurred in a location that has among the greatest risks in the nation of flash flooding’

By Roger Pielke Jr.:  Hoyt and Langbein 1940 identified south central Texas as being among the regions of the United States with the greatest risk of flooding.
The flooding was certainly extreme but it should not have been historically unexpected. The documented record of extreme flooding in “flash flood alley” goes back several centuries, with paleoclimatology records extending that record thousands of years into the past.
Consider the figure above, from a classic 1940 historical text on U.S. floods, which shows that the same region of Texas that experienced this week’s floods has long been known to be a bullseye for flash flooding. In fact, almost a century before Hoyt and Langbein, Texas experienced one of the greatest losses of life in U.S. history related to extreme weather. ...
The data show considerable variation across the U.S. but also no indication of an increase in this metric for “flash flood alley” over this 42-year analysis. ...  The IPCC AR6 WG1 concluded the following on U.S. river floods:
There is limited evidence and low agreement on observed climate change influences for river floods in North America (Section 11.5). Trends in streamflow indices are mixed and difficult to separate from river engineering influences, with large changes but little spatial coherence across the USA, making it difficult to identify trends with confidence . . .
...
Based on the peer-reviewed literature and observational records, there is little empirical basis to claim that extreme precipitation has increased in “flash flood alley” (or indeed, most of North America or the world). Similarly, there is little basis for claims that flooding has become more common or severe. ... 
The figure above shows that as the population of Texas increased from ~9.2 million in 1958 to ~28.6 million in 2018, overall flood deaths remained fairly constant, meaning that the fatality rate dropped by about two-thirds.
This tragedy occurred in a location that has among the greatest risks in the nation of flash flooding, where kids in summer camps have previously been swept away to their deaths, and where warning systems are (apparently and incredibly) not in place. This tragedy never should have happened and it should never happen again. ... 
If there was ever an issue where politicians should come together to take action to ensure that this type of tragedy never happens again — This is it.

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-texas-flash-floods

The Texas Flash Floods: A tragedy that should never happen again

By Roger Pielke Jr.

Excerpt:

As I write this, the death toll in the Texas flash floods now exceeds 70, with 12 people still missing, including 11 girls and one camp counselor. It is a heartbreaking and horrific tragedy.

Many have been quick to politicize the tragedy in an effort to support whatever agenda that they were promoting before the disaster — climate change, DOGE budget cuts, operations of the National Weather Service, the Biden Administration. The one political implication of the disaster that I’m ready to call for is to reassert the importance of establishing a U.S. Disaster Review Board, a case made here at THB by Mike Smith last March.

Today, I share some data and context on the event for those wanting to go beyond seeking to use tragic deaths in hopes of scoring online partisan points. Shameful.

Before getting to relevant data and research, my view — This tragedy occurred in a location that has among the greatest risks in the nation of flash flooding, where kids in summer camps have previously been swept away to their deaths, and where warning systems are (apparently and incredibly) not in place. This tragedy never should have happened and it should never happen again.

Just a bit more background — early in my career I studied the use of weather forecasts and warnings at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, including flood warnings. Overall, the U.S. has seen tremendous progress in forecasts, warnings, evacuations, with a long-term drop in death rates from flooding. However, this week’s tragedy shows that we still have much work to do.

…

Full article By Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. here: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-texas-flash-floods

 

 

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