Media finally gets it: ‘The dimming future of U.S. EV sales’ – ‘Analysts are slashing estimates for U.S. EV sales’ after Trump/GOP ‘scuttle tax credits & emissions rules’

Why it matters: Transportation is the biggest U.S. share of CO2. And dimming sales forecasts show a market that remains tethered to fast-changing policies.

Driving the news: Today the research firm BloombergNEF estimated that EVs will be 27% of U.S. passenger vehicle sales in 2030, down from nearly 48% in last year’s version of the annual look-ahead.

• Plans to roll back fuel economy and emissions rules, end the $7,500 consumer credit, cut funding for charging infrastructure, and auto import tariffs are all dragging down the outlook.
• And BNEF’s outlook assumes that California’s plans to phase out gas-powered car sales by 2035 — which are under threat — remain in place.

Catch up quick: It comes a month after the International Energy Agency revised its future U.S. sales estimates sharply downward.

• IEA now sees EVs with 20% of light-duty market sales in 2030.
• That’s less than half of IEA’s projection in the 2024 version of its annual EV report.

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The bottom line: The EV sales trend is still upward — but the U.S. landscape has completely changed.

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Excerpt: Global sales are slated to hit another record this year, with BNEF estimating 22 million passenger EVs moved, up 25% from 2024.

The big picture: China accounts for two-thirds (!) of the market, with Europe next at 17%, followed by the U.S at 7%.

• EVs, including plug-in hybrids, are slated to be one in four passenger vehicles sold this year worldwide.

Yes, but: The research firm has trimmed its short- and long-term outlook.

• That’s due to the U.S. policy changes, potential nullification of California’s rules, and the EU pushing back near-term vehicle CO2 targets.
• It now sees 39 million passenger EVs sold globally in 2030, compared to 42 million in last year’s outlook.

What we’re watching: The global market is shifting as Chinese automakers ramp up foreign sales.

• “This challenges a widely held assumption that EVs will start in wealthy countries before spreading further,” it states.
• “Thailand now has higher EV adoption rates than the U.S., while Brazil is ahead of Japan.”