With California EV sales stalled what happens to its landmark mandate?
With California EV sales stalled what happens to its landmark mandate?
About a quarter — 25.3% — of all new cars registered in California in 2024 were zero emissions, just slightly more than 25% in 2023
By Alejandro Lazo
After three straight years of strong growth, sales have stabilized in California, raising questions about whether the state will fail to meet its groundbreaking mandate banning sales of gas-powered vehicles.
About a quarter — 25.3% — of all new cars registered in California in 2024 were zero emissions, just slightly more than 25% in 2023, according to new California Energy Commission data. The flat sales follow several years of rapid growth — in 2020, only one in 13 cars sold was zero-emissions. Their share of California’s market is now three times larger than four years ago.
But the slowed pace of growth in the market puts the state’s climate and air pollution goals at risk. Under California’s mandate, approved in 2022, 35% of new 2026 car models sold by automakers must be zero emissions. That leaves considerable ground to make up as some 2026 models begin rolling out later this year.
The requirement ramps up to 68% for 2030 models, and in 2035, California’s rule bans all sales of gasoline-powered cars.
David Simpson, who owns three car dealerships in Orange County, said he is not seeing increased demand for electric cars. While the initial rollout of some models, such as the GMC Hummer EV, did well at first, the demand did not continue. Sales of the Chevrolet Equinox and Blazer EVs do alright, but aren’t strong, either, he said.
“The sales are declining,” Simpson said. “We’ve filled that gap of people who want those cars — and now they have them — and we’re not seeing a big, huge demand. I don’t see households going 100% EV.”
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Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, said automakers could seek to avoid the fines by reducing the number of gas-powered cars they send to California dealers. He said that could leave fewer options for buyers, drive up prices and push some consumers to Nevada or Arizona to find the car they want, while others will hold on to their older, more polluting vehicles.
“We’re just not going to make the mandate as presently drafted” so automakers will have to take action, Maas said. “The most rational is to constrain inventory.”
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Last month, John Bozzella, the group’s chief executive, called California’s rules “by any measure not achievable” after President Donald Trump signed an executive order repealing federal rules promoting electric vehicles.
“There’s a saying in the auto business: You can’t get ahead of the customer,” Bozzella said.
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Californians have purchased more than 2 million electric cars, leading the nation. The number has doubled in about two years.
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He said these new buyers, often from middle-income households or who live in apartment buildings without easy access to charging, are far less forgiving when it comes to electric cars. Concerns about range, broken chargers and upfront costs are deal breakers.
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