New Study: 47 years of iceberg data finds ‘extreme calving events’ in Antarctica ‘are statistically unexceptional’ & ‘are not necessarily a consequence of climate change’ – Published in Geophysical Research Letters

Massive calving events result in significant instantaneous ice loss from Antarctica. The rarity and stochastic nature of these extreme events makes it difficult to understand their physical drivers, temporal trends, and future likelihood. To address this challenge, we turn to extreme value theory to investigate past trends in annual maxima iceberg area and assess the likelihood of high-magnitude calving events. We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change. Nevertheless, it is statistically possible for Antarctica to experience a calving event up to several times greater than any in the observational record.

• This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of Antarctica’s biggest icebergs in the observational record
• There is no upward trend in the surface area of Antarctica’s annual maximum iceberg between 1976 and 2023
• A once in a century calving event would yield an iceberg surface area approximately the size of Switzerland

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Things just got tougher for climate alarmists.

Remember when Iceberg A-68 calved off Antarctica's Larsen C Ice Shelf in the summer of 2017? The climate chicken littles blamed it on global warming.

Well, a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) casts… pic.twitter.com/SwzRgWWs2G

— Chris Martz (@ChrisMartzWX) December 15, 2024