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British Geological Survey Warns Of Climate-Related Subsidence Based on ‘modeled projections for what might happen’

by Paul Homewood / 

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

It is sad to see what used to be a serious, scientific body prostitute itself to global warming scaremongering:

New maps launched by the British Geological Survey (BGS) reveal how climate change is likely to drive an increase in subsidence-related issues for British homes and properties over the next 50 years.

Experts at the BGS, the UK’s geoscientific advisor which helps to advance our knowledge about changes in the environment, warns that the number of properties in Great Britain  facing subsidence issues and damage to property from shrink-swell is on the rise, with figures of just 3 per cent in 1990 likely to reach 10 per cent by 2070.

Shrinking and swelling of the ground, often reported as subsidence, is already one of the most damaging geohazards in Britain today, costing the economy an estimated £3 billion over the past decade.

BGS has combined geotechnical information about potential ground movement, with data about long-term rainfall and temperature scenarios, to identify the areas of Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence in the future.

Based on one of four new BGS datasets, the information traces the impact of climate change from 1990 and reveals important projections for the next decade, as well as future projections up to 2070.

They represent the worst-case scenario if Britain were to take no action to reduce carbon emissions, using scaled values which highlight the areas with the highest susceptibility to shrink-swell subsidence activity driven by a changing climate.

Shrink-swell refers to changes in soil volume due to moisture changes in the ground. When clay-rich soils absorb lots of water, swelling pressures can cause the ground to rise and structures to lift, known as heave. In warmer, drier weather, soils can become very hard when dry. As a result, the ground shrinks and cracks, leading to subsidence.



According to projections, more than three per cent of properties are likely to be affected across Great Britain by 2030, and almost three times that number (10.9 per cent), by 2070.

‘By combining our extensive geology survey data and geological expertise to UK Climate Projection scenarios (UKCP18), we can highlight those areas most vulnerable to shrink–swell subsidence due to future climate change. This is important information that can help communities and property owners to build resilience to future climate change.’

Patrick Gray, BGS Head of Digital Products.


Paul Homewood comments: 

Note that there is no evidence offered that any of this has actually gotten any worse in recent years. Instead, the report is all based around UKCP18, the Met Office’s modelled projections for what might happen if global temperatures rise significantly. We are of course familiar with previous Met Office projections, which have proved wide of the mark.

London has always been a hot spot for subsidence, as London Clay is one of the most shrinkable of soil types of all. However there is no evidence that the London region is getting wetter or drier. In particular, summers were frequently drier in the past than recently, which totally undermines the BGS’ conclusions.


Opinion polls show that very few people are seriously concerned about climate change, which is no doubt the reason why the BGS has decided to publish this farcical study.