Zero, 0, no one defending KKOV20
I mean, I get it … https://t.co/41DdxzquVu— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) May 21, 2020
OK, another short, but data-rich thread on the new Kossin et al. PNAS paper on tropical cyclones, which has been widely misreported, misunderstood and which misrepresents its own findings … (benefiting from collaboration with @RyanMaue) pic.twitter.com/iV3COdMQr0
— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) May 20, 2020
Bottom line
KKOV20 makes a great case study from start to finish
Science promotion
Hurricanes & climate (yay!)
Media hype
Gross misrepresentation
Questionable science
But that is why we publish … to spark debate & discussion
And KKOV20 have certainly achieved that goal
/END— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) May 20, 2020
Let me start by saying that the paper's conclusions, that in some ocean basins a greater proportion of TCs have become intense since 1980, is neither new nor controversial
Kossin et al. did not perform an attribution analysis but is widely claimed to have done so (which is odd)— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) May 20, 2020
2-KKOV20 says of the two datasets:
"it is not always clear which of the two data records is the more accurate for any particular estimate"
OK then let's then use std dev of differences as an "error" on actual intensity estimates
Here is what their Fig.1 looks like w/ error bars pic.twitter.com/FSOOfRAkeb— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) May 20, 2020
2-KKOV20 says of the two datasets:
"it is not always clear which of the two data records is the more accurate for any particular estimate"
OK then let's then use std dev of differences as an "error" on actual intensity estimates
Here is what their Fig.1 looks like w/ error bars pic.twitter.com/FSOOfRAkeb— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) May 20, 2020
Also see: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1263205113616711680.html
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Related Links:
Excerpted from: Skeptical Climate ‘Talking Points’ 36-Page Report Released at UN Climate Summit in Madrid
Hurricanes are not getting worse
Norwegian Professor Ole Humlum explained in his 2018 “State of the Climate Report”: “Tropical storm and hurricane accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) values since 1970 have displayed large variations from year to year, but no overall trend towards either lower or higher activity. The same applies for the number of hurricane landfalls in the continental United States, for which the record begins in 1851.”
Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. noted that the federal National Climate Assessment released in 2018 ignored one of its own expert reviewers, who wrote: “National Hurricane Center going back to the 1800s data clearly indicate a drop in the decadal rate of US landfalling hurricanes since the 1960s … instead you spin the topic to make it sound like the trends are all towards more cyclones.”
In 2019, extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. explained: The WMO (World Meteorological Organization) concluded, “no observational studies have provided convincing evidence of a detectable anthropogenic influence specifically on hurricane-related precipitation,” but also that an increase should be expected this century … The WMO assessment concludes: “anthropogenic signals are not yet clearly detectable in observations for most TC (tropical cyclones) metrics.”
Hurricane Maria, which hit Puerto Rico in 2017, was not an unprecedented storm, with the eighth-lowest landfall pressure (917 mb) on record in the Atlantic Basin. Meteorologist Anthony Watts noted, “With Irma ranked 7th, and Harvey ranked 18th, it’s going to be tough for climate alarmists to try connecting these two storms to being driven by CO2/global warming. But they’ll do it anyway.”
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