Models are pretty much a book of spells, with different outcomes depending on the Witch that made them.
The spread of any virus depends on much more than Math.— David I Birch (@Climate_Earth20) April 29, 2020
https://wmbriggs.com/post/30541/
Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals
As I predicted, they’re mining history to dig up old deaths. Now the forecasts won’t look as bad.
The man in charge of Pennsylvania’s health system got caught juicing coronavirus death numbers. …
I predicted coronavirus models would be treated like global warming models. In them, the modelers are always “discovering” new lower temperatures in the past (to make our times hotter). In the same way, and in order not to admit model failure, they’d have to make up the corona body deficit. Models said around median 175 thousand dead in the US even with full lockdowns.
I’ll repeat that: even with full lockdowns.
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I predicted that since you can’t make up dead bodies, like you can with Chicago voters, for total all-death counts, they’d have to reclassify some older deaths as COVID.
They’re doing it!
Headline: U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19 (long quote)
In the early weeks of the coronavirus epidemic, the United States recorded an estimated 15,400 excess deaths, nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to covid-19 at the time, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.
The excess deaths – the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year – occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.
The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents.
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Now “excess deaths” are calculated via statistical modeling, as we saw. These are statistical deaths. Not verified deaths.
