By Kenneth Green
On Monday, April Fool’s Day, the federal carbon tax kicked in, in the four provinces that do not have their own carbon taxes — Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New Brunswick.
The federal carbon tax (technically the “federal carbon-pricing backstop”) kicks in at $20 per tonne, rising by $10 per year to reach $50/tonne in 2022 (Alberta’s provincial carbon tax is scheduled to rise in lockstep with the federal plan).
Where it will go after that is anyone’s guess.
Some economists defend the federal tax, proclaiming it to be “revenue neutral” since some 90% of revenues will be rebated to households in lump-sum payments that somehow will magically actually exceed the carbon taxes paid by households, and thereby the carbon tax will make every Canadian better off.
(But as noted by economist Jack Mintz, when factoring in all the direct and indirect costs of the carbon tax, it’s likely impossible that everyone will receive a rebate that exceeds the tax.)
Because there will be lawsuits over federal carbon pricing (and a possible imminent court challenge of Alberta’s carbon tax), let’s review the necessary attributes of a textbook carbon tax that can justify it’s an “efficient” way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
First, economic carbon tax theory doesn’t simply call for some arbitrarily defined “revenue neutrality,” it calls for carbon tax revenues to be used to reduce other economically distortionary taxes such as personal and corporate income taxes.
That’s because reducing those taxes increases economic efficiency overall and offsets the drag introduced by taxing carbon emissions.
Giving lump-sum rebates to households will not generate those economic gains, therefore, the new carbon tax will simply be yet another drag on Canada’s economy.
And revenue neutrality (however defined) has been fleeting in Canada.
In British Columbia, actual revenue neutrality lasted only five years before carbon tax revenue turned into a new stream of government revenue.
Second, economic theory calls for carbon taxes to replace regulation, not be layered on top of regulation.
And the number of regulations already targeting energy use (and thus carbon emissions) must be phased out as carbon taxes are phased in.
Do you think the federal or provincial governments will eliminate building efficiency standards, vehicle efficiency standards, household appliance efficiency standards, electronic device efficiency standards, etc.?