Alex Espstein on why catastrophic predictions keep failing


By: - Climate DepotApril 2, 2019 9:00 AM

Why catastrophic predictions keep failing

https://industrialprogress.com/why-catastrophic-predictions-keep-failing/

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Why catastrophic predictions keep failing

by Alex Epstein / Mar 20, 2019
In this issue:

  • Why catastrophic predictions keep failing
  • Power Hour: How to think about air pollution, the 2020 election, fracking bans, and ethanol mandates
  • Highlights from my visit to Youngstown
  • The Human Flourishing Project: How I learn from other people’s systems

Why catastrophic predictions keep failing

I was recently interviewed for a Fox News article highlighting 10 failed catastrophist predictions. The published version of the article only used a single quote from the interview, but here are some of my unpublished comments:

One of the main causes of experts being horribly wrong in their predictions is that they hold an extremely dubious assumption as a dogma.

In the case of climate catastrophism and other environmental catastrophism the dogma is the idea that the planet is a delicate nurturer that will take care of us if we don’t impact it, but that will punish us mightily if we do impact it significantly.

Because environmental catastrophists hold this delicate nurturer view of the planet they expect that any impact on climate will be catastrophic, that any emissions into our local environment will be catastrophic, and that any consumption of resources will be catastrophic.

Whereas the much more accurate view of the planet is that it is wild potential. So the planet is not delicate, nor is it a nurturer. It’s wild and often threatening. But if we intelligently impact it, it can be a wonderful place to live.

And that’s what industry has done. It’s taken the wild potential of the planet and made it a wonderful place to live with remarkably low added negative impacts.

Power Hour: How to think about air pollution, the 2020 election, fracking bans, and ethanol mandates

On this week’s episode of Power Hour, Don, Steffen, and I cover seven topics:

Listen to the episode:

Highlights from my visit to Youngstown

Business Journal Daily covered my recent speech to the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber of Commerce. Following the speech, I also did a brief interview with the Journal where I discussed the impact of fossil fuels on human life.

While I was in Youngstown I also had the opportunity to appear on the Dan Rivers Podcast, where we talked about the moral case for fossil fuels and the anti-development movement’s attack on industrial civilization. (My segment starts about 53 minutes in.)

The Human Flourishing Project: How I learn from other people’s systems

On the latest episode of The Human Flourishing Project I discuss, using last week’s interview as an example, how I learn as much as I can as quickly as possible from other people’s successful systems.

Alex