This year’s BP Energy Outlook is now out:
These are the highlights:
The speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the new Outlook considers a range of scenarios. Its evolving transition (ET) scenario, which assumes that government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past, expects:
- Fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand a third higher.
- The global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around 25%.
- Renewables are by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14% of primary energy.
- Demand for oil grows over much of Outlook period before plateauing in the later years.
- Natural gas demand grows strongly and overtakes coal as the second largest source of energy.
- Oil and gas together account for over half of the world’s energy
- Global coal consumption flatlines with Chinese coal consumption seeming increasingly likely to have plateaued.
- The number of electric cars grows to around 15% of the car parc, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, account for 30% of passenger vehicle kilometres.
- Carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past.
Under the ET scenario, fossil fuel consumption continues to rise steadily from 11354 Mtoe in 2016, to 13308 Mtoe in 2040, an increase of 17%.
The biggest increases occur in Asia, mainly outside of China. Fossil fuel consumption in the US only falls slightly by 3%. And even in the EU, fossil fuels still account for 59% of primary energy in 2040.