Climate activists and the media always like to remind us about the “consensus” and how anyone who dissents from it is guilty of being “anti-science.” There are a whole new round of climate change hurricane claims due to Hurricane Harvey hitting the Texas coast, but what actually is the “consensus” on hurricanes?
2017 alleged Hurricane “Consensus”:
Warmist Michael Mann: ‘It’s a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly’
‘Global warming may have been part of cause that Harvey rapidly intensified’
‘Harvey’s intensity and rainfall potential tied to global warming’
‘Climate Change Makes Storms like Harvey More Severe’
‘Because of climate change, hurricanes like Harvey are probably going to become more common’
‘Will Hurricane Harvey show Trump that climate change exists?’
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The hurricane climate change “consensus” seems to be very flexible. (Inspiration via the Corbett Report)
Flashback 2007: Climate change causes more hurricanes – Hurricanes Have Doubled Due to Global Warming, Study Says – John Roach – National Geographic News – July 30, 2007 – The number of Atlantic hurricanes that form each year has doubled over the past century and global warming is largely to blame, according a new study. The increase occurred in two major steps of about 50 percent each, one in the 1930s and the second since 1995…So while the storms’ severity seems to fluctuate in a natural cycle, their frequency is on the rise, he explained…Holland and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta published their findings online today in the research journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.
But Wait!
Flashback 2015: Climate change causes less hurricanes – A team of scientists has performed a new exploration of the global tropical cyclone response to ocean warming…Global warming means fewer—but more powerful—hurricanes – SHALINI SAXENA – May 21, 2015 – This investigation indicates that global warming, which leads to a warmer global ocean, results in an increase in cyclone intensity with a decrease in cyclone frequency with no change in activity overall. Since the influence of climate on these storms has been controversial, the apparently contradictory influences may help explain some of the confusion.
But wait!
Flashback 2008: Hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries! – Hurricane expert reconsiders global warming’s impact – Houston Chronicle – April 12, 2008
Excerpt: One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global warming has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his stand. The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.
Flashback 2008: Global warming isn’t to blame for hurricanes – Another Hurricane Expert Reconsiders Warming/Hurricane Link – Associated Press – May 18, 2008 – Global warming isn’t to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject. Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday. In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.
Flashback 2005: Climate change causes more rain (but less water) – The Irony of Global Warming: More Rain, Less Water – By –
But Wait!
Flashback 2004: Climate change causes less rain – Less rain in a warmer world – By Philip Ball – April 1, 2004 – Global warming and pollution could give us drier days. Most researchers say a warmer world will be a wetter one. But a new study into the effects of pollution hints that we could be in for a dry spell…But some aspects of climate change could have the opposite effect, says Beate Liepert of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York. “We cannot simply say that fossil-fuel burning leads to global warming and more precipitation,” she says. Even if the world gets moister, that doesn’t necessarily mean more rain, she and her colleagues report in Geophysical Research Letters1.
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Reality Check:
NOAA’s GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) “Global Warming and Hurricanes”: “An Overview of Current Research Results” – Last Revised: March 17, 2017 – “It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).”
Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: ‘Why Houston Flooding Isn’t a Sign of Climate Change’ – Dr. Spencer: “Major floods are difficult to compare throughout history because the ways in which we alter the landscape. For example, as cities like Houston expand over the years, soil is covered up by roads, parking lots, and buildings, with water rapidly draining off rather than soaking into the soil. The population of Houston is now ten times what it was in the 1920s.” — Are the rainfall totals unprecedented? “Even that question is difficult to answer. The exact same tropical system moving at, say, 15 mph might have produced the same total amount of rain, but it would have been spread over a wide area, maybe many states, with no flooding disaster. This is usually what happens with landfalling hurricanes. Instead, Harvey stalled after it came ashore and so all of the rain has been concentrated in a relatively small portion of Texas around the Houston area. In both cases, the atmosphere produced the same amount of rain, but where the rain lands is very different. Even with the system stalling, the greatest multi-day rainfall total as of 3 9 a.m. this Monday morning is just over 30 39.7 inches, with many locations recording over 20 inches. We should recall that Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979 (a much smaller and weaker system than Harvey) produced a 43 inch rainfall total in only 24 hours in Houston
Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘Anyone blaming Harvey on global warming doesn’t have a leg to stand on’ – Curry: ‘Anyone blaming Harvey on global warming doesn’t have a leg to stand on.’ ‘The huge amounts of rain are associated with Harvey’s stalled movement.’ Phil Klotzbach has prepared this list off Cat 4-5 U.S. landfalling hurricanes:
Flashback: 1963 Global Cooling Hurricane Produced 100 Inches Of Rain
