Washington DC — Despite the fact that the climate data clearly shows declining or no trends in many major indicators of “extreme weather” like tornadoes, hurricanes, rainfall, droughts and heatwaves, climate activists are once again seemingly trying to link every storm to “global warming.”
Man-made global warming proponents are touting yet another study claiming to attribute “extreme weather” to man-made global warming. See: Scientists: ‘Links Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Are Clear‘
While such studies rely on modeling claims and other assorted statistical methods to “attribute” “global warming” to specific storms, these studies never examine why “extreme weather” is not increasing. The Associated Press is claiming that “Starting in 2004, dozens of complex peer-reviewed studies found the odds of some extreme events — but by no means all — were goosed by man-made climate change.”
Yes, the AP is claiming that “complex” studies found “the odds of some extreme events” are being “goosed by man-made climate change.” Complex? Odds? Goosed? Really?
The AP’s resident climate activist writer Seth Borenstein continued: “When it comes to heat waves, droughts, heavy rain and some other events, scientists who do rigorous research can say whether they was more likely or more severe because of man-made global warming.” Rigorous? (Note: AP’s Borenstein relies on a small cadre of activist scientists to support the “rigorous” claims. Activists like UN IPCC’s Michael Oppenheimer, David Titley and Katharine Hayhoe)
Climate Depot’s Rebuttal:
If “global warming” can cause specific storms or extreme weather events to occur, how come “global warming” can’t cause the significant lack of “extreme weather?” NOAA: Number of major tornadoes in 2015 was ‘one of the lowest on record’ – Tornadoes below average for 4th year in a row –
Is “global warming” causing a decrease in “extreme weather” events? A 2015 study found just that. See: New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather – A paper published in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere’s ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes.
The media is indulging in what extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has called “climate porn.” See: Flashback: Apocalyptic ‘climate porn’ is wrong – Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change – Pielke Jr.
Paul Homewood has an excellent analysis of the recent declining trends in “extreme weather.”
Explaining The Extreme Weather Events That Did Not Happen
MARCH 17, 2016
By Paul Homewood
Unable to persuade the public that a slightly warmer world is a bad thing, the climate establishment has turned to peddling the myth that global warming is leading to more extreme weather.
There have been a number of studies which have attempted to connect the two. Even then, as I showed with the above AMS attempt a few months ago, most extreme events cannot be linked, and those that are claimed to be are extremely tenuous.
Of course, weather is an impossibly complex affair, and it is inevitable that some weather events may be made more likely or more intense in a warmer world. But, equally, the opposite is also true – that some events are less likely. Naturally, we never hear the absence of extreme weather analysed in this way by the likes of the AMS or Met Office.
So, I invite them to have a go at these examples:
Hurricanes
US land falling hurricanes have been at record low levels in recent years, and it is now more than ten years since a major hurricane hit.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
Tornadoes
There has been a long term decline in both the number of tornadoes, and particularly, the frequency of stronger ones.
Droughts
Droughts were much more commonplace, prolonged and severe prior to the 1970s.
Summer Heatwaves
There has been a marked absence of extreme heatwaves in recent years, and nothing approaches the run of intensely hot summers in the 1930s.
Bitter Winters
According to NOAA’s albeit highly adjusted data, extremely cold winters are a thing of the past in the US.
Precipitation
As with drought indicators, US rainfall has tended to be greater since the pre 1970 period.
There is no indication, however, of precipitation becoming more extreme since then. The wettest year was 1973.
Regional Precipitation Extremes
National totals can, of course, cover up regional imbalances.The NOAA chart below shows the balance of extremely wet and dry areas. As with PDSI, very dry areas are much less common, while the area of very wet weather is stable.
(NOAA’s graph is not well presented; although it says “December”, it is in fact for all months since 1895. Each bar represents a single month)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/?area=wet-dry&month=0&submitted=View
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Related Links:
Flashback: Apocalyptic ‘climate porn’ is wrong – Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change – Pielke Jr.:’It must be because more storms are happening. They’re not. All the apocalyptic “climate porn” in your Facebook feed is solely a function of perception. In reality, the numbers reflect more damage from catastrophes because the world is getting wealthier. We’re seeing ever-larger losses simply because we have more to lose — when an earthquake or flood occurs, more stuff gets damaged”
‘Yet another study finds little basis for attribution of extreme weather (drought-flood-storm) to human-caused climate change.’ – Study warns of ‘over simplistic attribution to human causes’ of extreme events. – Professor Roger Pielke Jr.: ‘Yet another study finds little basis for attribution of extreme weather (drought-flood-storm) to human-caused climate change.’
Extreme weather at or near historic lows:
New paper unable to link 2013 extreme weather of droughts, heavy rain & storms to AGW
Tornadoes: U.S. Tornado Count Plummeting to Record Low Levels Three Consecutive Years
Droughts: New Research Confirms Human CO2 Not Causing A Global Drought Increase – ‘Droughts in the U.S. are more frequent and more intense during COLDER periods’
Floods: Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. : ‘Are US Floods Increasing? The Answer is Still No’ — ‘A new paper out today shows flooding has not increased in U.S. over records of 85 to 127 years’ — Quick Flood Facts: ‘The world’s ten deadliest floods all occurred before 1976. The historical flood record is horrific. Here is a small sampling of news stories’
U.S. Heatwaves: ‘The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has plummeted. with three of the five mildest summers occurring since 2004′
Wildfires: 2014 – Quietest Fire Season Of The Decade according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center data — US Forest Fires Near Historic Lows: ‘Burn acreage is much less than half of normal’ according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center
Fmr. IPCC & MIT’s Dr. Richard Lindzen In Germany Extreme Weather Claims ‘Pure Propaganda’ – Portrays IPCC Climate Models As Fudged… – On extreme weather, at the end of his presentation, Lindzen calls the science surrounding it ‘one of the crazier things.’ – ‘Extreme weather is pure propaganda. The UN IPCC itself acknowledges no relation.’
