Climate Skeptics turn tables on ‘attribution’ studies – Ask: Is ‘global warming’ causing a decrease in ‘extreme weather’ events?


By: - Climate DepotMarch 17, 2016 4:35 PM with 13 comments

Washington DC — Despite the fact that the climate data clearly shows declining or no trends in many major indicators of “extreme weather” like tornadoes, hurricanes, rainfall, droughts and heatwaves, climate activists are once again seemingly trying to link every storm to “global warming.”

Man-made global warming proponents are touting yet another study claiming to attribute “extreme weather” to man-made global warming. See: Scientists: ‘Links Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Are Clear

While such studies rely on modeling claims and other assorted statistical methods to “attribute” “global warming” to specific storms, these studies never examine why “extreme weather” is not increasing. The Associated Press is claiming that “Starting in 2004, dozens of complex peer-reviewed studies found the odds of some extreme events — but by no means all — were goosed by man-made climate change.”

Yes, the AP is claiming that “complex” studies found “the odds of some extreme events” are being “goosed by man-made climate change.” Complex? Odds? Goosed? Really?

The AP’s resident climate activist writer Seth Borenstein continued: “When it comes to heat waves, droughts, heavy rain and some other events, scientists who do rigorous research can say whether they was more likely or more severe because of man-made global warming.” Rigorous? (Note: AP’s Borenstein relies on a small cadre of activist scientists to support the “rigorous” claims. Activists like UN IPCC’s Michael Oppenheimer, David Titley and Katharine Hayhoe)

Climate Depot’s Rebuttal:

If “global warming” can cause specific storms or extreme weather events to occur, how come “global warming” can’t cause the significant lack of “extreme weather?” NOAA: Number of major tornadoes in 2015 was ‘one of the lowest on record’ – Tornadoes below average for 4th year in a row –

Is “global warming” causing a decrease in “extreme weather” events? A 2015 study found just that. See: New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather – A paper published in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere’s ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes.

The media is indulging in what extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has called “climate porn.” See: Flashback: Apocalyptic ‘climate porn’ is wrong – Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change – Pielke Jr.

Paul Homewood has an excellent analysis of the recent declining trends in “extreme weather.”  

Viahttps://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/explaining-the-extreme-weather-events-that-did-not-happen/

Explaining The Extreme Weather Events That Did Not Happen

MARCH 17, 2016 

By Paul Homewood

image_thumb67

https://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

Unable to persuade the public that a slightly warmer world is a bad thing, the climate establishment has turned to peddling the myth that global warming is leading to more extreme weather.

There have been a number of studies which have attempted to connect the two. Even then, as I showed with the above AMS attempt a few months ago, most extreme events cannot be linked, and those that are claimed to be are extremely tenuous.

Of course, weather is an impossibly complex affair, and it is inevitable that some weather events may be made more likely or more intense in a warmer world. But, equally, the opposite is also true – that some events are less likely. Naturally, we never hear the absence of extreme weather analysed in this way by the likes of the AMS or Met Office.

So, I invite them to have a go at these examples:

Hurricanes

US land falling hurricanes have been at record low levels in recent years, and it is now more than ten years since a major hurricane hit.

image

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http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Tornadoes

There has been a long term decline in both the number of tornadoes, and particularly, the frequency of stronger ones.

image_thumb54

image_thumb55

Droughts

Droughts were much more commonplace, prolonged and severe prior to the 1970s.

mudltigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/pdsi/ytd/12/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Summer Heatwaves

There has been a marked absence of extreme heatwaves in recent years, and nothing approaches the run of intensely hot summers in the 1930s.

mulstigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tmax/3/8/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Bitter Winters

According to NOAA’s albeit highly adjusted data, extremely cold winters are a thing of the past in the US.

multigramph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tmin/3/2/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Precipitation

As with drought indicators, US rainfall has tended to be greater since the pre 1970 period.

There is no indication, however, of precipitation becoming more extreme since then. The wettest year was 1973.

multigrapph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/pcp/ytd/12/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Regional Precipitation Extremes

National totals can, of course, cover up regional imbalances.The NOAA chart below shows the balance of extremely wet and dry areas. As with PDSI, very dry areas are much less common, while the area of very wet weather is stable.

(NOAA’s graph is not well presented; although it says “December”, it is in fact for all months since 1895. Each bar represents a single month)

multigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/?area=wet-dry&month=0&submitted=View

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