NOAA study: Heavy daily precipitation trends ‘have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability, & less to human-induced climate change’
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists recently published a report claiming heavy daily precipitation trends “have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability, and less to human-induced climate change.”
“Analysis of model ensemble spread reveals that appreciable 35-yr trends in heavy daily precipitation can occur in the absence of [man-made greenhouse gas] forcing, thereby limiting detection of the weak anthropogenic influence at regional scales,” NOAA scientists wrote.
NOAA’s new study, however, runs up against the Obama administration’s 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA), which claims global warming is increasing heavy downpours.
While both studies agree heavy rainfall events have increased, the 2014 NCA suggests global warming is mostly to blame. NOAA, on the other hand, claims man-made warming played a minimal role in increasing heavy rains.
New paper finds global precipitation is increasing, decreasing, & not changing – depending upon which of 3 global datasets are examined! – Published in Atmospheric Science Letters – “Decadal trends of global precipitation are examined using the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. The decadal trends of global precipitation average diverge a decreasing trend for the CMAP data, a flat trend for the GPCP data, and an increasing trend for the reanalysis data.”