Forecasting Pioneer Dr. Scott Armstrong: ‘From the scientific point of view forecasts of dangerous global warming are not valid’
'The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global mean temperature [changes] cannot be forecast because climate is too complex. They nevertheless rely on complex computer modelling to represent their assumptions about how the climate works. The outputs of such models are called “scenarios.” In effect, the IPCC tells stories, illustrated with computer graphics, about what would happen if their assumptions were correct.'
Global warming alarmists claim that nearly all scientists agree that dangerous man-made warming will occur. However, surveying scientists’ opinions is not a scientific forecasting method. Nor is the claim true.
J. Scott Armstrong is Professor, University of Pennsylvania, Editor of Principles of Forecasting, a founder of the International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting, author of Long-Range Forecasting, and founder offorecastingprinciples.com. All of his papers are available at jscottarmstrong.com
