Analysis: ‘What could justify the increase in confidence from 90% to 95%, and it what sense has the evidence for human influence grown since AR4 was published in 2007?’
Here are some things that have happened since 2007 that might have changed confidence:
- We’ve had another six years with no warming, that climate scientists failed to predict (in fact they predicted there would be a resumption of warming).
- Climategate showed the private doubts of climate scientists, plus journal-nobbling and data-withholding.
- Several new papers from mainstream climate scientists have acknowledged that there is an increasing inconsistency between models and observations.
Yet confidence has increased and evidence grown?
Analysis of key points UN IPCC report:
‘It is extremely likely (95%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century’
No best estimate of climate sensitivity, but a likely range given of 1.5 – 4.5C. The low end is slightly lower than it was in AR4 (2.0).
Misleading graph of ocean heat content
Graph of snow cover for March/April only
Decadally averaged temperature graph (hide the decline?)
Graph of Arctic, but not Antarctic, sea ice.