Wait, if tomorrow’s rainfall forecast is ‘deliberately biased high’, how do we know that the 2050 high temperature forecast isn’t ‘deliberately biased high?’
'The Weather Channel's rainfall forecast example is an interesting one, where probabilities are deliberately biased high. If you carry an umbrella and it doesn't rain, no big deal. But if it rains and you get caught without an umbrella, then that hurts. So the rainfall forecasts have a precautionary bias, based upon user sensitivity'
