Statistician Dr. Matt Briggs: Mooney shows a graph from their paper which is so silly that I refuse to picture it. He presents this graph, as do the authors, as if it were data. Which it is not. It is the output from a preposterously complex regression model (they “control” for 13 things!). Baseball fans: when do more beanballs, and hence more retaliations take place, in chilly April when the season has just begun and all are of good cheer, or late in hot August when tempers are up and when games start to feel a lot more crucial? Is the observed discrepancy therefore caused by climate change? Good grief, what a rotten paper, what a rotten theory.
'Climate change is expected to cause 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050, affecting the poorest countries with weak health care systems - a global challenge that rivaled Ebola as one of the top issues at the World Health Summit in Berlin this week.'
'For 1 degree Celsius of warming, he'd expect about a 1 percent increase in interpersonal conflicts, a category that includes crimes like assault and robbery but also road rage and fights at baseball games.'
Mooney: 'For instance, one of the studies cited in the new meta-analysis is a 2011 paper published in Psychological Science (discussed in more depth here) showing a relationship between hot temperature days and the number of retaliatory beanballs thrown by Major League Baseball pitchers. The figure below shows their results in more detail:
Credit: Richard Larrick et al, 2011, Temper, temperature, and temptation: Heat-related retaliation in baseball. Psychological Science, 22, 423-428. Reprinted with permission.
The study's lead author Richard Larrick, a professor at Duke's Fuqua School of Business, explained in an e-mail the psychological research linking heat with shows of aggression.
Spencer: 'I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record...if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.'
'The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.'
RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree, which no one can actually feel. Not surprisingly, the effects on severe weather are also unmeasurable …despite what some creative-writing “journalists” are trying to get you to believe.
As at the end of September, RSS is only ranking 7th hottest since 1998, and UAH tie 3rd. On both datasets, 1998 and 2010 were much, much warmer, and in both cases this year’s temperature is barely above last year’s (0.01C and 0.02C for RSS and UAH respectively).
The whole idea that we can measure global temperatures by any method to such small margins is, of course, a nonsense. Nevertheless, satellite monitoring does not have the substantial issues of UHI and minimal coverage which surface datasets have.