Spencer: 'I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record...if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.'
'The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.'
RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree, which no one can actually feel. Not surprisingly, the effects on severe weather are also unmeasurable …despite what some creative-writing “journalists” are trying to get you to believe.
As at the end of September, RSS is only ranking 7th hottest since 1998, and UAH tie 3rd. On both datasets, 1998 and 2010 were much, much warmer, and in both cases this year’s temperature is barely above last year’s (0.01C and 0.02C for RSS and UAH respectively).
The whole idea that we can measure global temperatures by any method to such small margins is, of course, a nonsense. Nevertheless, satellite monitoring does not have the substantial issues of UHI and minimal coverage which surface datasets have.
Geologists Dr. Nick Eyles and Dr. Andrew Miall are professors in the Department of Geology at the University of Toronto: 'Promises of a more ‘stable future’ if we can only prevent climate change are hopelessly misguided and raise unnatural expectations by being willfully ignorant of the natural workings of the planet.
'The past climate record suggests in fact that for much of the Earth’s surface future cooling is the norm.'
'It is self-evident to us that the public debate concerning environmental change largely lacks an understanding of natural variability. Since the last Ice Age ended, some 12,000 years ago, Earth has been through several periods lasting hundreds of years and possibly longer when it was either warmer or colder than at present.'
'The ongoing discussion of climate change -- in some circles -- assumes that any change since 1940 is largely man-made. This opinion is uninformed by geologic science.'
'Much of our science is what we would call ‘crisis-driven’ where funding, politics and the media are all intertwined and inseparable generating a corrupting and highly corrosive influence on the scientific method and its students. If it doesn’t bleed it doesn’t lead is the new yardstick with which to measure the overall significance of research.'
Rebuttal: Examination of the data from the paper, however, shows the range of proxy sea levels is approximately 10 meters, far too large to discern the tiny ~1.5 mm/yr sea level rise over the past 150 years. The authors instead assume from other published studies of tide gauge measurements that the ~1.5 mm/yr sea level rise over the past 150+ years began at that point in time. Other papers find sea levels rising only 1.1-1.3 mm/yr over the past 203 years, and without acceleration.
Regardless, even the IPCC concedes that there was no significant anthropogenic influence on climate prior to 1950, thus man is not be responsible for sea level rise beginning 150-200 years ago, at the end of the Little Ice Age.