"No major advanced industrialized country is on track to meet its pledges to control the greenhouse-gas emissions that cause climate change. Wishful thinking and bravado are eclipsing reality. Countries in the European Union are struggling to increase energy efficiency and renewable power to the levels that they claimed they would. Japan promised cuts in emissions to match those of its peers, but meeting the goals will cost more than the country is willing to pay. Even without Trump's attempts to roll back federal climate policy, the United States is shifting its economy to clean energy too slowly."
"Emission rates are falling in almost all advanced industrialized countries. But the declines are too slow to meet the pledges that governments made in Paris (see 'Climate shortfall')."
"It is easy for politicians to make promises to impatient voters and opposition parties. But it is hard to impose high costs on powerful, well-organized groups. No system for international governance can erase these basic political facts. Yet the Paris agreement has unwittingly fanned the flames by letting governments set such vague and unaccountable pledges."
Michael Mogil: "One must recognize that there has been a dramatic change in global observing and forecasting systems since the mid 19th century. In fact, it wasn’t until the latter part of the 1800’s that hurricane warning offices were established and it wasn’t until the mid 20th century before the National Hurricane Center was created. Hurricane hunter aircraft were not employed until the 1940’s and the first weather satellite didn’t arrive on the scene until 1960. Since 1960, satellite observation systems have evolved to be highly powerful, high frequency, and high resolution observing tools (Fig. 2). These satellites can now see entire ocean basins; in earlier years, point ship and island reports were all that meteorologists had available. To say that “There was likely undercounting pre-1960,” would be an understatement. The bottom line is that the data table and reference links offered by Eric Holthaus are misleading. Such data and associated statistics need to be viewed with a consistent (or at least a clearly stated discussion of the) data and how it was obtained. Apples must be compared to apples!
Many storms were missed over the open ocean prior to hurricane hunter aircraft in 1944. Even then half of the Atlantic basin was not covered. Satellite coverage began to improve matters in 1966. But even then monitoring has considerably improved since 1966, particularly regarding short lived storms.
Contrary to popular myth, the year with most major hurricanes was not 2005, but 1950, when there were eight.
To have four, as we have so far had this year, is not in the slightest unusual. In fact, there have been 27 years on the record, when there has been four or more major hurricanes.
But are hurricanes getting more powerful?
Well, not according to the ACE index (1), which shows hurricane seasons in the past every bit as strong as the past couple of decades.
Climate scientist Dr. Duane Thresher: "Start with defunding NASA GISS where this whole global warming nonsense started. It was started by James Hansen, formerly head of NASA GISS and considered the father of global warming. It was continued by Gavin Schmidt, current head of NASA GISS, anointed by Hansen, and leading climate change warrior scientist/spokesperson.
Thresher rips former colleagues: "Physicists and mathematicians who couldn't make it in their own fields, like James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt (who actually told me one reason he became a climate scientist was because he couldn't make it in his degree field of mathematics). People who just wanted instant success as fake heroes or showmen rather than doing years of hard slow obscure real science."
"NASA GISS is a monument to bad science that truly should be torn down."
Climate Depot's Marc Morano statement on 2002 article: "Will they reclassify hurricanes from 50 years ago? 100? What about old tornadoes? Will they erase the Medieval Warm period again?!"
Let's get this straight: The National Hurricane center gets federal grant to study historical storms and presto -- Past storms are made stronger based on 'we feel' guesses, 'best call' and 'best-estimates' while they admit 'uncertainty.' 'We feel the Category 5 winds at least made it to the coastline,' Max Mayfield said. 'We feel'?! Hurricane science is now reduced to 'we feel' estimates!? A cynical person might suspect that the National Hurricane Center is revising the past to show increasing hurricane strength in 'global warming' era. Similar 'revisions' occurred with the Medieval Warm Period, The Pause, Sea Levels, Global temperature data, etc."
Max Mayfield, director of the center in 2002: "We'll always have some uncertainty," Mayfield said, "but we made our best call." -- "We feel the Category 5 winds at least made it to the coastline."
Revisions occurred "after receiving federal grants to study the intensity and tracks of all hurricanes since 1910."
"Officials emphasized they were not working with new data, but rather taking another look at old data under a 'best-estimate' approach."
"Other Category 4 hurricanes may also be upgraded."
"According to these and other authors, rising greenhouse gas levels are at least partly to blame for the occurrence and severity of Harvey, and probably for Hurricane Irma as well. But after-the-fact guesswork is not science. If any would-be expert really knew long ago that Harvey was on its way, let him or her prove it by predicting what next year’s hurricane season will bring. Don’t hold your breath: Even the best meteorologists in the world weren’t able to predict the development and track of Hurricane Harvey until a few days before it hit..."
"We should not assume that any time we have pleasant weather, we were going to have it anyway, but a storm is unusual and proves greenhouse gases control the climate. A settled theory makes specific predictions that can, in principle, be tested against observed data. A theory that only yields vague, untestable predictions is, at best, a work in progress. The climate alarmists offer a vague prediction: Hurricanes may or may not happen in any particular year, but when they do, they will be more intense than they would have been if GHG levels were lower. This is a convenient prediction to make because we can never test it. It requires observing the behaviour of imaginary storms in an unobservable world. Good luck collecting the data.
Climate scientists instead use computer models to simulate the alternative world. But the models project hundreds of possible worlds, and predict every conceivable outcome, so whatever happens it is consistent with at least one model run."
'When opinion writers tacitly assume all good weather is natural and GHGs only cause bad weather, or claim to be able to predict future storms, but only after they have already occurred, I reserve the right to call their science unsettled.'
Climate Activists Peter C Frumhoff & Myles R Allen in UK Guardian blame industry for worsening storms: 'We know that the costs of both hurricanes will be enormous and that climate change will have made them far larger than they would have been otherwise...Lawsuits filed in July by three coastal California communities against ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and other large fossil fuel companies argue that the companies, not taxpayers and residents, should bear the cost of damages from rising seas. They draw on extensive evidence that fossil fuel companies, knowing that their products contributed substantially to climate change, engaged for decades in a coordinated campaign to publicly disparage climate science to avoid limits on emissions.'
Flashback 2016: Marc Morano: "This is all part of a financial scheme. If every bad weather event can have new metrics that make them unprecedented and a record, then they will declare it fossil-fuel-'poisoned weather.' Warmist attorneys general will use any storm now to get money from energy companies claiming that their company made tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and droughts worse. They will use any bad weather event to shake down energy companies. That is why the extreme storm meme is so important."