Settled Science is ‘Adjusting’ their Estimates Downward
Settled Science is “Adjusting” their Estimates Downward
What is “settled science?” Settled science, if there is a thing, is something that has been tested countless times and never rejected through experimentation. Gravity is as close to a “settled science” as they come. Objects at sea level on earth in a vacuum will fall at 9.8m/sec^2, no matter how many times you run that experiment. The defining characteristic of a “settled science” is that no new information alters the previously defined conclusion. In other words, the conclusion is never altered. If it does get altered it is by definition, not a “settled science.” “Settled sciences” are “settled,” they don’t change with new information. New information simply reinforces the previous conclusion.
How then do you destroy your credibility to the 95% confidence level to any reasonable person? You go and claim that the “consensus” has “settled a science” with 95% confidence, and then change the conclusion. That, in fact, is exactly what is happening in the field of slimate clience. It appears that the upcoming 6th IPCC Report is about to unsettle this “science.” Ironically, it is the IPCC, not the Skeptics, that is about to blow up the myth of Slimate Clience being “settled.” The changing of the IPCC conclusions does far more to support the positions of the skeptics, than the alarmists.
“Seismic Shift” In Climate Science… IPCC CO2-Induced Warming Estimate “Far Too High”…”In A Free Fall”
All this points to a seismic shift in the understanding of CO2 climate sensitivity in the now being drafted 6th IPCC Report.
The ‘best estimated value’ will in any case move considerably downward. That of course is already causing a lot of bellyaching among the climate warriors, and so the world is preparing in advance for the changes. For example Knutti et al. 2017 wrote in Nature Geoscience, that in any case greenhouse gas emissions will have to limited, no matter if the CO2 climate sensitivity value is possibly lower: