Watch Now: Morano on Fox News rebuts study claiming ‘Unstoppable’ Antarctica melting & Sea Level Rise: ‘When current reality fails to alarm, they make a bunch of scary predictions’
Watch Here: – May 14, 2014 – Fox Business Channel – Varney & Co.
Marc Morano: ‘This is very likely of natural origin. You have Gov. Jerry Brown worried about LAX being relocated because of this allegedly unstoppable melting.
We had similar scare stories in 1922. Similar scare stories in 2009. NYT’s Andrew Revkin is saying this is an awful misuse of the term ‘unstoppable.’
There have been peer-reviewed studies showing Antarctica as a whole is getting cooler. The eastern part of Antarctica, the largest part, has been gaining ice or stable. The land ice is very stable except for the western part of Antarctica, which is what this study looked at.
Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice is at record expansion. Global sea ice, combining Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, is above average. Antarctica sea ice is well above average, breaking all kinds of records.
This is models. When current reality fails to alarm, they make a bunch of scary predictions. We are talking about 1000 year time scales and beyond for this melting.’
Antarctica Background Reading:
‘Irreversible Collapse Of Climate Alarmism’ – Antarctica & Sea Level claims – ‘Yet another non-crisis crisis’ – ‘Truth sacrificed in the name of sensationalism’ – ‘What is not clearly stated is that all glaciers, including the WAIS and those on Greenland, are constantly flowing down hill. The reason they flow is that they are constantly gaining mass from accumulated snowfall. Glaciers grow from the top and the added mass causes the ice to flow down hill… The fact of the matter is that the ice drainage rate—ice melting or breaking off into the ocean—is highly variable, as is the accumulation of new ice from precipitation. The time scales for variation can be long, longer than a human lifetime, so any snapshot at a particular instant must be taken with a grain of salt (or crystal of ice). Despite the caterwauling in the media, this is yet another non-crisis crisis. In fact, even while this new speedup in the WAIS’s march to the sea has been found, Antarctica is setting new records for surrounding sea ice for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a supposedly warming world. How soon we forget the plight of those high-minded eco activists who got themselves stuck in the summer ice around the southernmost continent. If they are in a coastal area they can flow into the sea where chunks break off forming icebergs. If the ice was on land, its addition to the ocean will cause sea level to rise.’ ‘There is a whiff of desperation in the air, and the over-hyping of these latest papers signals not the imminent decline of Antarctica’s glaciers but the irreversible collapse of climate alarmism. This latest climate change scare is a prime example of science speak sending the overly excitable media into an ignorance driven frenzy.’
Studies indicate collapse of West Antarctic ice sheet is typical of interglacials: While the Guardian’s Suzanne Goldenberg jumps the shark again, wailing that the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet has already begun and implying it’s due to mankind, prior research has demonstrated that collapse over centuries of the West Antarctic ice sheet is a natural phenomenon typical of the most recent interglacial periods. According to glaciologists, “There is some evidence to suggest that, in previous interglacials, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet completely disappeared, leading to sea levels about 5m higher than at present . vidence…indicates open seaways across West Antarctica at various periods during the last few million years, andeven during the past one or more interglacials.” Thus, the complete collapse and disappearance of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet is typical of interglacials, there is no evidence that man has anything to do with the cause, nor that man can stop this phenomenon by forsaking use of fossil fuels.
New paper finds most of Antarctica cooled over the past 1,000 years: A new paper published in Nature Climate Change reconstructs temperatures in Antarctica and South America over the past 1000 years and shows that most of Antarctica has cooled over the past 1000 years. The temperature reconstructions in figure 1a below show South America was about as warm during the Medieval Warm Period 800-1000 years ago, and shows that Antarctica as a whole has cooled ~0.4C over the past 1000 years.The authors find only the relatively small Antarctic Peninsula and a small portion of the southern tip of South America warmed over the past 1000 years:
Oops. JERRY BROWN WARNS LAX WILL HAVE TO BE MOVED DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING; UPDATE: AIDE CORRECTS – Gov. Jerry Brown ‘warned that California my be underwater in the future–not because of his budget, but because glaciers in Antarctica will collapse and sea levels will rise four feet over the next 200 years.’ Brown cautioned, “If that happens, the Los Angeles airport’s going to be underwater. So is the San Francisco airport.” As for the San Onofre nuclear power plant: “You’re going to have to move all that … That’s billions, if not tens of billions. Luckily, we can take a few years.”
Update: ‘The governor misspoke about LAX,” said Evan Westrup, a spokesman for the Brown administration. Environmental officials for Los Angeles World Airports, the operator of LAX, said the airport has an elevation of more than 120 feet. “A 4-foot rise in sea level,” they said, “should have minimal impact on airport operations.”
Meteorologist Anthony Watts: Brown beclowns himself: ‘LAX airport elevation is 125 feet, the NOAA Los Angeles tide gauge rate of sea level rise 0.83 millimeter/year suggests that it will take over 40,000 years to reach the runways.’ On the Amundsen Sea ice sheets in Antarctica melting, NASA in their press release on the paper said: “The region contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 4 feet (1.2 meters).” They offer a worst case scenario of the entire West Antarctic sheet melting, stating 16 feet (5 meters). Neither scenario affects LAX.
What about Jerry Brown’s claim of San Francisco airport being underwater? ‘What about SFO, which is only 10 feet or so above the Bay? At current rates of sea level rise, SFO will be underwater in only infinity years.’
We control sea level rise? Watch Now: Local DC News Schlock Report on Antarctica & Sea Level Rise: ‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise’ – WUSA Ch. 9 DC: ‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise and that gives us time to prepare and protect our communities in a smart way.’ – Brenda Ekwurzel – Union of Concerned Scientists – Junk Science Analysis: ‘We have a President who said he could stop the seas from rising and now a Concerned Scientist who says it’s our choice. ‘
Flashback 1929: ‘Primitive Peoples’ Have Always Had Flood Myths: ‘The Antarctica is melting and is going to drown us all story has been a useful tool for generating research money – for as long as scientists have known about Antarctica.’
The World’s News (Sydney) – July 3, 1929: ‘World Flood’: ‘One of the purposes of the Byrd Expedition is to determine whether the Antarctic ice-cap is melting. According to Sir Edgeworth David, famous Australian geologist, the level of the entire ocean would be raised about fifty feet if the whole Antarctic ice barrier melted. Practically every seaport town would then be under water.’
Flashback 2009: ;It happened many times before when the Earth was as warm as it is about to be. In terms of time scales, I do not think the results of this study are relevant to what will be happening in the next 100 years and beyond. The problem is far more complex.’
NYT in 2014: ‘Sometime between 200 and 900 years from now the rate of ice loss from this glacier could reach a volume sufficient to raise sea levels about 4 inches (100 millimeters) a century. At that point, according to the paper, ice loss could pick up steam, with big losses over a period of decades.* But in a phone conversation, Joughin said the modeling was not reliable enough to say how much, how soon. “Collapse is a good scientific word,” he told me, “but maybe it’s kind of a bad word” in the context of news. There’s more on this work ina well-written news release from Joughin’s university. We are talking about a retreat that is unstoppable because we think we have enough evidence to say that these glaciers will keep retreating for decades and even centuries to come…. We’re talking about a slow degradation of ice in this part of Antarctica. Disturbingly, you can backtrack to 2009 and see a similar burst of “collapse” news around the release of two Nature papers, even though the science then also spoke of sea-level changes over millenniums. Click back to “Study: West Antarctic Melt a Slow Affair” for a bit of déjà vu.
2013: New paper finds the majority of East Antarctic glaciers have advanced in size since 1990 – A new paper published in Nature finds that a majority of the outlet glaciers along the East Antarctic ice sheet have advanced in size over the past 20 years from 1990 to 2010. According to the paper, “Despite large fluctuations between glaciers—linked to their size—three [significant] patterns emerged: 63 per cent of glaciers retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 per cent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 per cent advanced from 2000 to 2010.” According to the authors, “In the 1970s and 80s, temperatures were rising and most glaciers retreated. During the 1990s, temperatures decreased and most glaciers advanced. And the 2000s saw temperatures increase and then decrease, leading to a more even mix of retreat and advance.” “When it was warm and the sea-ice decreased, most glaciers retreated, but when it was cooler and the sea ice increased, the glaciers advanced.” [Note: Antarctic sea ice is currently near record-high levels]
Antarctic Sea Ice At Record Levels: ‘The National Snow and Ice Data Centre said the rapid expansion had continued into May and the seasonal cover was now bigger than the record ‘by a significant margin’
Inconvenient truth: Antarctica sea ice extent growing 1.43% per year — ‘A paper published today in Journal of Climate examines the trend of sea ice extent along the East Antarctic coast from 2000 to 2008 and finds a significant increase of 1.43% per year’