Claim: ‘The rise of right-wing populism will harm the environment & exacerbate climate problems’ – ‘If populists successfully halt the world’s progress towards a ‘green’ transition, the planet could face utterly tragic consequences’

These prospects are all very disturbing. However, not all disruptive innovations will be put into practice, as some of them require lengthy procedures and approvals. Second, U.S. states have considerable powers, and the battle for climate leadership may well intensify between states, as well as between cities and companies.

Finally, even if the federal government gives away land to interests involved in oil extraction, energy producers will not necessarily start “drilling, baby, drilling” immediately. The U.S. is not a command economy, and every private company makes independent business decisions for itself. At the moment, there is no shortage of oil on the market — hence the unappealing prices — and the green transition is still in progress.

European populism and climate

In Germany, France, Italy, and other European countries, far-right parties, known for their climate skepticism, are gaining support. Populists propose “simple solutions” to complex problems, and some of these solutions imply weakening environmental regulation and giving up the fight on the climate change front. Solving the climate crisis will require real effort, and it is easier for right-wing populists to simply tell their voters that there is no climate crisis.

Such is the position of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which treats climate change as a far-fetched problem and suggests rolling back Germany’s energy transition policy. However, even though the AfD finished second in recent Bundestag elections, it has yet to find any willing coalition partners.

In France, following the triumph of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party in the European Parliament elections last summer, President Emmanuel Macron announced early parliamentary elections. The French far-right failed to win, but National Rally and its allies increased their number of seats in parliament from 89 to 142. National Rally calls the EU Green Deal, which aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, a tool of punitive environmentalism. The right wing presents the energy transition as a burden on French citizens and lobbies for tax cuts for conventional energy and a freeze on new wind power projects.

In Italy, elections in 2022 brought the far-right to power for the first time since Mussolini’s day. The country is governed by a coalition consisting of the Brothers of Italy (first place in the elections), Lega, and Forza Italia, a center-right party founded by Silvio Berlusconi. Brothers of Italy and its allies have always been skeptical of climate change, often characterizing the green transition as ideologically biased. So far in international meetings, they have stuck to official EU rhetoric, but they have nevertheless sought to put the brakes on many climate initiatives, including the ban on sales of new cars with internal combustion engines starting from 2035.

War and climate

Wars and armed conflicts also impact the environment, as regular people and politicians alike tend to lose focus on global warming when more immediate events threaten global security. The climate is changing gradually, meaning there are still a couple of decades before catastrophic events are likely to occur — but the wars are already underway.

According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), at least 233,000 people were killed in armed conflicts worldwide in 2024. Over the past five years, the number of conflict events — not only combat activity but also dispersal of protests, violence against civilians, seizure of land, and so on — has almost doubled, from 104,000 events in 2020 to nearly 200,000 in 2024.

This significant increase is due to the outbreak or resurgence of large conflicts in Ukraine, in the Middle East, and in Myanmar, set against the backdrop of continuing violence in many conflict-prone countries and regions including Sudan, Mexico, Yemen, and the Sahel.

Warfare itself is also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Military vehicles consume huge amounts of fossil fuels, and combat activities often cause urban and forest fires and accidents at oil refineries or dams — as was the case with the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine. In addition, wars often lengthen freight and passenger transportation routes, also increasing emissions.

According to a recent study by the Initiative of Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War, the first two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine resulted in additional greenhouse gas emissions of 175 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a figure that exceeds the annual emissions of the Netherlands.

This number takes into account not only emissions from combustion of fuel for military vehicles and aircraft, weapons production, fortification construction, and war-induced fires, but also future emissions that will arise from reconstruction. The Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS) calculates that the armed forces of all countries in the world accounted for around 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. If all the world’s armies were one country, it would be the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, ranking below China, the U.S., and India, but outpacing Russia.

Importantly, this assessment is based on pre-pandemic data and does not reflect the escalation of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.