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“[T]he absurdity of power shortages in a first-world, resource-rich nation when the truth is the Australian public should be utterly furious that ‘cheap’ ‘green’ energy has plundered our grid.”https://t.co/vI1E9apAaf— Darren Brady Nelson (@DarrenBNelson) December 3, 2024
https://www.spectator.com.au/2024/12/is-australia-copying-pakistans-electricity-grid/
In the quiet residential enclaves of Islamabad, my wife and I learned to live with an unreliable electricity network. Blackouts were not an inconvenience but a daily certainty. For most, it meant enduring sweltering summers without air conditioning or navigating candlelit evenings. For the wealthy, however, life barely skipped a beat. Large diesel-electric generators would rumble to life seconds after the power failed, restoring light and comfort. It was a stark illustration of inequality, and one that, disturbingly, Australia risks emulating.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the Federal Government have both warned of potential blackouts as the country accelerates its transition to renewable energy. Yet rather than addressing this looming crisis with pragmatism, they appear wedded to an ideological fixation on achieving renewable energy targets at any cost. The result? A fragile electricity grid that is increasingly reminiscent of Pakistan’s.
The Commonwealth Government’s GEAR (Government Energy Action Response) protocol, outlined in recent guidance, underscores these concerns. The document reveals a recognition of growing risks to energy reliability, with plans for voluntary reductions in electricity use during supply-demand imbalances. These measures – turning off monitors, adjusting heating and cooling, and even load shedding – reflect an alarming acceptance of an unstable energy grid. This is not a hypothetical risk but a real and present challenge, as evidenced by past activations of GEAR during peak demand periods. Such protocols, while well-intentioned, highlight a reactive rather than proactive approach to energy management. Many workers in NSW/ACT received an email on 26 November 2024 stating that ‘heatwave’ conditions were causing stress on the electricity grid and dictating actions that employees should take to reduce electricity consumption. This is years before Australia nears the government’s targets and during what the Bureau of Meteorology described as a ‘mild heatwave’.
The parallels are unnerving. In Pakistan, chronic under-investment in grid infrastructure and an over-reliance on politically expedient but unreliable energy sources created an enduring energy crisis. While renewable energy may not be the root cause of Pakistan’s woes, its experience underscores the dangers of prioritising short-term political objectives over the long-term reliability of the energy system. Australia is heading down a similar path, risking the same social and economic fractures that plague nations with unstable electricity networks.
In Australia, the push for renewables is not inherently misguided, only the government’s objective for them to climb to 100 per cent in a short space of time while demonising coal and gas. Solar, wind, and other such technologies are important components of a modern energy future. However, the zealotry with which these targets are being pursued – often to the exclusion of necessary investments in grid stability, firming capacity, and transitional baseload power – risks undermining the very goals they seek to achieve. And the government’s policy is far from technologically neutral, specifically banning nuclear energy while other developed countries are seeing a nuclear energy renaissance. If Australia is to have a reliable and affordable energy mix.
Already, Australians are being told to prepare for an era of ‘flexible demand’, a euphemism for power rationing. Much like in Islamabad, we could find ourselves waiting for lights to flicker back on – if, that is, we can afford the backup generators that will become a necessity for those who can pay, and of course voltage regulators to preserve motors such as those on fridges. Those who cannot will endure sweltering summers, shivering winters, and dark nights, victims of a policy approach that prioritises ideology over practicality. This would deepen existing inequalities, creating an Australia where energy security becomes a privilege rather than a right.
When electricity networks fail, the consequences can be deadly. Hospitals lose power, threatening the lives of patients relying on ventilators, dialysis machines, and other critical medical equipment. Elderly people and those with chronic illnesses suffer during extreme heat or cold without functioning climate control. Food and water safety are compromised when refrigeration systems fail. The most vulnerable in society, often already grappling with poverty and limited resources, bear the brunt of these failures, turning a technical issue into a humanitarian crisis.
The problem is not renewable energy itself but the way it is being managed. Germany, for instance, has successfully integrated renewables into its energy mix by investing heavily in grid upgrades and maintaining a reserve of baseload power, while importing electricity generated by nuclear power-plants from France. By contrast, Australia’s transition feels rushed, poorly planned, and alarmingly indifferent to the consequences for ordinary citizens. The reliance on weather-dependent energy sources without sufficient backup systems exposes the grid to vulnerabilities that could have been mitigated through strategic investment.
The demand for electricity is surging globally, driven by the rapid electrification of traditionally fossil-fuel-dependent sectors and the emergence of high-energy digital technologies. In Australia, this growth is evident in several key areas. The electrification of heating, for instance, as households and businesses transition from gas to electricity-powered solutions such as heat pumps, is a significant driver. This trend aligns with decarbonisation goals and consumer preferences for greener alternatives, leading to increased residential and commercial electricity consumption. Electric vehicles (EVs) represent another transformative factor, with projections suggesting that by 2035, EVs could account for up to 20-30 per cent of the nation’s vehicle fleet. This shift not only reduces dependence on imported fuels but adds a substantial load to the grid, particularly during evening charging periods if unmanaged.
Moreover, the exponential growth of data centres, fuelled by the digital economy and cloud computing, is a prominent contributor. Data centres, already consuming approximately 1 per cent of global electricity, are expected to grow in Australia due to the nation’s increasing reliance on data-intensive services and its role as a regional data hub. Complementing this is the rise of cryptocurrency mining, which, while not as pronounced in Australia compared to global hot-spots, still adds to demand through energy-intensive computational requirements. Similarly, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, with their reliance on machine learning and vast datasets, are escalating power usage in sectors such as health, finance, and logistics.
Over the next decade, these trends collectively could lead to an estimated 20-30 per cent increase in Australia’s electricity demand. This growth underscores the need for robust grid infrastructure, increased renewable energy capacity, and advanced energy management systems to accommodate rising loads while maintaining reliability and progressing toward Net Zero emissions targets.
This mismanagement also risks eroding public trust in climate action. Australians want a cleaner, greener future, but they also expect their government to ensure energy reliability and affordability. When those basic expectations are not met, support for renewables—and the broader climate agenda – is likely to wane. This backlash could have far-reaching implications, setting back efforts to combat climate change and transition to sustainable energy.
We have a choice. We can transition our network more slowly and allow alternative technologies, especially nuclear, in a more considered approach to the energy transition, or we can continue down the path of Pakistan, where the lights go out not just for minutes but for hours. The consequences of the latter will not just be felt in economic terms but in the erosion of public confidence in Australia’s ability to govern itself effectively. The stark reality is that we have a choice: to adapt to climate change as a wealthy, resilient nation, or to face its impacts as a poorer, less prepared society.
It is time for the government to reassess its priorities. Renewable energy is not an end in itself; it is a means to a cleaner, more sustainable future. To achieve that future, we need policies grounded in realism, not ideology. That means investing in grid infrastructure, ensuring reliable backup power, and adopting a more balanced energy mix that includes nuclear and gas as transitional fuels. These are not radical ideas but pragmatic steps that other nations have taken successfully.
Australia’s energy policy must also consider the human cost of unreliability. For families, small businesses, and vulnerable communities, power outages are not just an inconvenience but a potential crisis. Whether it’s the loss of perishable goods, interrupted healthcare equipment, or simply the stress of living with uncertainty, the stakes are high. A secure and stable electricity supply is foundational to modern life, and it should be treated as such.
Otherwise, Australia’s energy future will not be one of innovation and sustainability, but of flickering lights, diesel generators, and deepening inequality. And that would be a tragedy for a nation that has every resource it needs to keep the lights on for all.
