By Mike Campbell
New research published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment has found limited evidence for a significant warming surge since the 1970s.
The researchers employed changepoint models, which are statistical tools designed to identify structural changes in time series data, analyzing temperature records from 1850 to 2023.
“Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected despite the breaking record temperatures observed in 2023,” they concluded.
The study indicates that natural variability, including phenomena such as La Niña events, has influenced short-term temperature fluctuations, which totally obscures the long-term warming trend.
Researchers used the HadCRUT global mean surface temperature (GMST) data from 1970 to 2023 to analyze trends in warming. The authors estimate that a minimum increase of 55% in the warming trend would be necessary for a surge to be statistically detectable at the current time.
Instead, they found only about half of that surge has taken place since 1970.
They found a 53% increase in the slope of warming from 0.019 °C/year (1970–2012) to 0.029 °C/year (2013–2023). However, for this latter trend to be statistically significant, it would need to exceed 0.039 °C/year, which is more than a 100% increase.
Furthermore, the researchers cautioned against interpreting short-term temperature anomalies as definitive evidence of a shift in long-term warming patterns.
“This is important considering the warming hiatus discussion over the last decade and the more recent alleged warming acceleration,” they concluded.
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