Elon Musk incorrectly claims rising CO2 will cause ‘headaches’ – Reality Check: MIT’s Dr. Lindzen: ‘CO2 is essential for life on our planet & levels as high as 5000ppm are considered safe on our submarines & on the space station’ & OSHA agrees

Experts from Marc Morano’s The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change:

MIT climate scientist Richard Lindzen has mocked claims that carbon dioxide is dangerous. “CO2 , it should be noted, is hardly poisonous. On the contrary, it is essential for life on our planet and levels as high as 5000 ppm are considered safe on our submarines and on the space station (current atmospheric levels are around 400 ppm, while, due to our breathing, indoor levels can be much higher),” he said in 2017.

“You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.” —renowned atmospheric scientist Reid Bryson, founding director of the Institute for Environmental Studies.

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The federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) on CO2:

“Carbon dioxide is a colorless, odorless gas and should be treated as a material with poor warning properties. It is denser than air and high concentrations can persist in open pits and other areas below grade. The current OSHA standard is 5000 ppm as an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA) concentration.”

Via Jonathan Cohler: There is a meta-study that completely debunks that nonsense about 1000ppm that is now being promulgated.

“Of the 51 human investigations assessed, many did not account for confounding factors, the prior health of participants or cross-over effects. Although there is some evidence linking CO2 exposures with health outcomes, such as reductions in cognitive performance or sick building syndrome (SBS) symptoms, much of the evidence is conflicting. Therefore, given the shortcomings in study designs and conflicting results, it is difficult to say with confidence whether low-level CO2 exposures indoors can be linked to health outcomes.”

Dear Elon, 1,000ppm of carbon dioxide is safe, we breathe it every day

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1823673748739744151.html

In minute 2:05:10, @elonmusk told to @realDonaldTrump that people get headaches at 1,000 ppm of CO2. This needs to be qualified. The threshold above which it is considered unhealthy to work for more than 8 hours is 5,000 ppm, and these are some references of CO2 concentrations:Image

You can find the full interview/conversation here:

Furthermore, Elon Musk said that CO2 is increasing at 2 ppm/year. Assuming that the main cause of this increase is man, we would not reach 1000ppm until 300 years from now. But there must be other sources of CO2: oil barrel consumption dropped 9% in 2020 and CO2 continued to riseImage
The sources of the table with the different CO2 levels are multiple; almost a paper for each of the environments or levels mentioned. But I have found that the answers provided by ChatGPT on each level are consistent with this table. 
Another important reference on the level of inhaled CO2 is when using fabric, surgical or FFP2 masks. Several studies show that inhaled CO2 levels when masks are worn exceed the recommended safety threshold of 5000 ppm. @elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump, please check the literature. 

@elonmusk @realDonaldTrump Study published in SAGE Journal, Sept 2022: With surgical masks the mean inhaled air CO2 is 7,091 ppm in children, 4,835 ppm in adults and 4,379 ppm in the elderly. With FFP2 masks is 13,665 ppm in children, 8,502 ppm in adults and 9,027 ppm in the elderly

@elonmusk @realDonaldTrump Study published in “BMC Infectious Diseases”, April 2021: CO2 concentrations in inhaled air when using FFP2 masks (KN95) are between 24,000 ppm and 26,000 ppm, considerably higher than the NIOSH recommended limit of 5,000 ppm for 8-hour exposures.

In summary:
1. Assuming that the main cause of the current increase in CO2 is man, it will take 300 years to exceed 1,000 ppm.
2. But the main cause is not man, but natural sources, probably the oceans.
3. In countless situations we breathe more than 1,000 ppm for many hours 
Table updated, including the CO2 concentrations in the air inhaled when using masks and the NIOSH recommended limit of 5,000 ppm for 8-hour exposures.Image

• • •

stag-ddi-musk-2024jul22

Deputy Director (Intelligence)

[email protected]

DD(I), STAG, to Elon Musk, 2024 July 22

Dear Mr Musk

CO2 toxicity

One of your many supporters has sent us a copy of the following tweet said to be by you,

with a request that we should comment on its scientific assertions –

“A CO2 tax, properly applied, would change the tragedy of the commons that is the

steadily rising CO2 ppm level. If we’re going to tax anything, then we should prioritize

taxing the potentially bad over the potentially good, as we do with alcohol &

cigarettes over vegetables & fruits. I disagree with those who view the climate risk as

catastrophic in the 5 to 10 year range, but the long-term risk is very real, even if one

simply considers quality of life at a given CO2 level. The indoor CO2 ppm level is

significantly above the outdoor average. This means ~800 ppm for ~400 ppm

ambient. Above 1000 ppm, people are noticeably negatively affected. Above 2000

ppm, it gets really painful.”

The Royal Navy and the United States Navy both have long-term experience of exposure

to CO2 on board submarines, where the greatest alertness must be maintained at all

times.

Scientific evidence from several studies shows that, though ambient CO2 concentrations

in submarines are often of order 10,000 parts per million by volume (i.e., 1%), and can

reach 30,000 ppmv (3%), all-cause early mortality among submariners is 30% less than

among the general population (Friedman-Jimenez et al., 2022).

The 1000-ppmv threshold for noticeable negative effects that you mention has little

scientific basis in fact, though it is a guideline often imposed by national regulatory

authorities. Mendel et al. (2024) report that “Most guidelines provided no supportive

evidence for specified limits: few provided persuasive evidence.”

Experiments on time-mated female rats (Howard et al., 2019) conducted on behalf of the

US Navy to ensure the safety of pregnant female submariners found no adverse effects

below a CO2 concentration of 30,000 ppmv (3%), and little harm even above it.

As to long-term risk from CO2 emissions, a paper by climate researchers working with

control theorists (draft summary for high-school seniors and college undergraduates

attached) shows that the notion that global warming will be large enough to be

dangerous is founded in an elementary error of control-theoretic physics. Climate

scientists unfamiliar with control theory borrowed feedback analysis and misapplied it.

In effect, at a crucial point in their calculations they forgot the Sun was shining.2

After correction, only 1 C global warming is legitimately foreseeable this century, which

would be net-beneficial. There has been little more than 1 C global warming over the past

century, but – despite a quadrupling of global population – annually-averaged deaths by

adverse weather have declined globally by 99% (OFDA/CRED disaster databases). There

is no need to take any further action to reduce CO2 emissions.

Even if all nations (rather than Western nations acting almost alone) were to attain net

zero emissions by 2050, the world would be only 0.1 Kelvin cooler by then than if the

long-established forcing-increase trajectory of 1/30th of a Watt per square meter per year

were to continue.

The cost of attaining that small reduction, derived pro rata from the UK National Grid’s

estimated $15.2 trillion cost of net-zeroing the British power grid, which accounts for

25% of British emissions, which in turn account for 0.8% of global emissions, would be

of order $2 quadrillion. Accordingly, each $1 billion spent on emissions abatement

worldwide would buy a reduction of order only one 20-millionth of a Kelvin in global

temperature by 2050 even if all nations attained net zero by that target year.

However, most nations are paying no more than lip-service to the official climate-change

narrative. One reason is that the fundamental error of physics perpetrated by climate

scientists insufficiently familiar with a discipline in physics that was not their own is

already well known in government circles: in China, India and Russia, to name but three.

Would you be kind enough to pass this letter and its attachment to your scientific

staff, and invite them to send us their justification for suggesting that an ambient

CO2 concentration of as little as 1000 ppmv (0.1%) would be net-harmful, together

with any comments that you or they may have on the attached draft for schools?

Yours truly,

DD(I), STAG

Attached: feedback-error-simply-explained.pdf (STAG, unclassified)

References

Friedman-Jimenez G, et al., 2022, Mortality of enlisted men who served on

nuclear-powered submarines in the United States Navy. J. Occup. Envir. Med. 64(2),

131-139, https://doi.org/10.1097/JOM.0000000000002364

Mendell M, et al., 2024, Carbon dioxide guidelines for indoor air quality: a review.

J. Expo. Sci. & Envir. Epidem., https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-024-00694-7

Howard WR, et al., 2018, Submarine exposure guideline recommendations for

carbon dioxide based on the prenatal developmental effects of exposure in rats. Birth

Defects Research 111(1), 26-33, https://doi.org/10.1002/bdr2.1417

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