https://www.windtaskforce.org/m/blogpost?id=4401701%3ABlogPost%3A261508

by Willem Post

**Kyoji Kimoto, [email protected]**

Independent climate researcher

Independent climate researcher

**History of the AGW narrative of the IPCC**

**Manabe’s model studies debunked by Newell (1979)**

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) scare was created in part by Japanese scientist Syukuro Manabe using a one dimensional radiative-convective model (1DRCM) having no ocean (1964/1967). He obtained a no-feedback climate sensitivity of 1.3 °C for doubling of CO_{2} using the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5 °C/km and a radiative forcing of 4 (W/m^{2}) at the tropopause, which was further enlarged to 2.4 °C with a water vapor feedback.

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Eminent meteorologist R. Newell from MIT criticized Manabe’s model lacking in ocean cooling. He obtained a No-feedback climate sensitivity of 0.03°C for a doubling of CO_{2} with a thermal inertia of 30 (W/m^{2}) per 1 °C for the surface waters of the ocean using a surface radiative forcing of 1 (W/m^{2}) to incorporate the IR spectra overlap between CO_{2} and water vapor.

The department of Energy & Dr. R. Cess, however, killed Newell’s ideas to promote nuclear reactors in a difficult time due to the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979.

Manabe continued his model studies to enlarge climate sensitivity (CS) for a doubling of CO_{2} with introducing various feed backs (FBs) as follows, which is the theoretical basis of IPCC’s AGW narrative.

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*Fig. 1 History of the CS for 2xCO _{2} with model studies by Manabe & IPCC*

*Fig. 1 History of the CS for 2xCO _{2} with model studies by Manabe & IPCC*

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**Cess’s erroneous calculation of the Planck feedback parameter**

Cess (1976, 1989) expressed the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) with equation (1) based on the old energy budget of the earth as shown by Fig. 2.

He obtained a Planck feedback parameter_{0} of -3.3 (W/m^{2})/C with equation (2), giving a No-feedback CS of 1.2 °C using a radiative forcing of 4 W/m^{2} for a doubling of CO_{2} at the tropopause as follows:

Cess’s Planck feedback parameter is used in all GCMs for the IPCC ARs with a slight decrease of the radiative forcing from 4 (W/m2) to 3.7 (W/m2) for a doubling of CO2 by IPCC TAR (2000).

*Fig. 3 Feedback parameters of 14 GCMs for the IPCC AR4 by Soden (2006)*

**Cess’s equation (1) is physically wrong**

Cess did not know the atmospheric window, because he was caught by the old energy budget of the earth (see Fig.2).

The OLR is expressed by equation (5) based on a modern energy budget of the earth as shown by Fig.4

OLR= F_{u} (T_{u}) (83%) + F_{w} (T_{s}) (17%) (5)

Equation (5) means the upper troposphere temperature T_{u} is increased as much as ~1°C with CO_{2} doubling instead of the surface temperature T_{s}.

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**Comparison of no-feedback climate sensitivities**

The following list shows the no-feedback climate sensitivities for a doubling of CO_{2}in the literature:

- Ramanathan (1979) 0.2°C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law
- Newell (1979) 0.03°C based on the ocean thermal inertia of 30 (W/m
^{2})/C - Idso (1980) less than 0.26°C based on the natural experiments
- Ramanathan (1981) 0.17°C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law
- Idso (1998) 0.1°C based on the 10 natural experiments
- Kimoto (2015) 0.15°C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law
- Manabe (1964/1967) 1.3°C based on the 1DRCM having no ocean
- Cess (1976) 1.2°C based on a calculation with a mathematical error
- Hansen (1981) 1.2°C based on Manabe’s 1DRCM
- Schlesinger (1986) 1.3°C based on Manabe’s 1DRCM
- Schlesinger (1986) 1.2°C with a trick concealing Cess’s mathematical error

**Conclusion**

All green policy is nonsense because it depends on IPCC’s claim that the surface temperature T_{s} is increased as much as 3°C for CO_{2} doubling utilizing an erroneous Plank feedback parameter_{0} of -3.21(W/m^{2})/C from Cess’s mathematical error.

The Paris climate agreement reads as follows: “To keep the rise in mean global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably limit the increase to 1.5°C.”

This is based on IPCC’s erroneous climate sensitivity of 3°C for doubling of CO_{2}discussed above. Therefore the Paris climate agreement is nonsense, though it governs the world politics now.

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(**References)**

Cess, R.D., An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1976, 33, 1831-1843.

Cess, R.D., Potter, G.L., Blanchet, J.P., Boer, G.J., Ghan, S.J., Kiehl, J.T., Le Treut, H., Li, Z.X., Liang, X.Z., Mitchell, J.F.B., Morcrette, J.J., Randall, D.A., Riches, M.R., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Slingo, A., Taylor, K.E., Washington, W.M., Wetherald, R.T. and Yagai, I., Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models, Science, 1989, 245, 513-516.

Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G., Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Science 1981, 213, 957-966.

Idso, S. B., The climatological significance of a doubling of Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Science 1980, 207,1462-1463.

Idso, S. B., CO2-induced global warming: a sceptic’s view of potential climate change,

Climate Research,1998, Vol.10, 69-82.

Kimoto, K., On the confusion of Planck feedback parameters, Energy & Environment, 2009, Vol.7, 1057-1066.

Kimoto, K., Will coal save Japan and the world?, Energy & Environment, 2015, 26, 1055~1067.

Manabe, S. and Strickler, R.F., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1964, 21, 361~385.

Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1967, 24, 241-259.

Manabe, S and Wetherald, R.T., The effects of doubling the CO_{2} concentration on the climate of a general circulation model, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1975, 32, 3~15.

Newell, R.E. and Dopplick, T.G., Questions concerning the possible influence of anthropogenic CO_{2} on atmospheric temperature, J. Applied Meteorology, 1979, 18, 822-825.

Ramanathan, V., et al., J. Geophysical Research, 84, 4949-4958 (1979)

Ramanathan, V., The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the CO_{2} climate problem, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1981, 38, 918-930.

Ramanathan, V., The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research, J. Geophysical Research,1987, 92, 4075-4095.

Schlesinger, M.E., Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO_{2}, Climate Dynamics, 1986, 1, 35-51.

Soden, B.J. and Held, I.M., An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Climate, 2006, 19, 3354-3360.