New Study: ‘Natural Climate Drivers Dominate In The Current Warming’

by Kenneth Richard

More and more evidence is emerging that the modern warming trends are naturally driven, not anthropogenic.

Per CERES observations the surface incident shortwave (SW) radiation anomaly increased by +1.61 W/m² from 2001 to 2019, and +1.75 W/m² from 2001 to 2021 (Ollila, 2023).

This SW increase is likely due to natural variations in cloud cover albedo, or reflectiveness; it can explain global warming (0.46°C) over this period.

The IPCC and climate activists have been downplaying  or dismissing the increase in downwelling SW radiation as a driver of warming, as this “challenges the basis of the [climate models]” that attribute warming almost exclusively to human activities.

Image Source: Ollila, 2023

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) trends have also been linked to long-term climate warming since 1750.

Most TSI reconstruction studies depict TSI rising by ~3 W/m² from 1900 to the 1930s (from -2 W/m² below to +1 W/m² above the reference level), and then TSI is “about 1.5 W/m² higher than the reference level” from around 1990 onward.

In all, TSI has increased by 1.1 W/m² since 1750, which is a non-negligible contribution to global warming.

“[T]he temperature impact of the TSI change of 1.1 W/m² from 1750 to 2020 would be 0.32°C.”

Image Source: Ollila, 2023

Finally, there is nothing remarkable about the modern warming trend when viewed in the context of proxy temperature reconstructions of last few millennia.

Image Source: Ollila, 2023