By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The effect of the small la Niña southern oscillation is waning. Nevertheless, the New Pause has lengthened from 6 years to 6 years 2 months in the UAH data:
HadCRUT4, after a little prodding, has updated its monthly dataset with three months of new data, taking us up to March 2021. The New Pause in the HadCRUT4 data has lengthened to 7 years 1 month:
How, then, have the real-world data behaved in comparison to the models’ predictions reported by IPCC (1990)? Here is IPCC’s prediction:
Since IPCC’s prediction of 1.8 C° anthropogenic warming is compared with preindustrial temperature, one must deduct the HadCRUT4 0.54 C° warming from 1850 to April 1991. IPCC’s prediction, then, amounted to 1.26 C° by 2030. UAH, however, shows only 0.46 C° in 30 years, equivalent to about 0.61 C° by 2030, of which 70%, or only 0.43 C°, is anthropogenic (Wu et al. 2019).
Therefore, IPCC’s prediction in 1990, on which the global-warming scare – justifiably described by Professor Lindzen in an excellent recent lecture as “absurd” – was based, has turned out to be a near-threefold exaggeration compared with sober reality.
Here is why. Today’s global mean surface temperature is 288.6 K, comprising 255.2 K emission temperature and a 33.4 K greenhouse effect. The 33.4 K comprises 7.2 K direct warming by, or reference sensitivity to, natural (6.2 K) and anthropogenic (1 K) greenhouse gases, and 26.2 K feedback response. Of this 26.2 K, 25.5 K is feedback response to emission temperature and 0.7 K to direct warming by greenhouse gases. Of this 0.7 K, 0.6 K is feedback response to naturally-occurring and 0.1 K to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Today’s system-gain factor, the ratio of equilibrium temperature after feedback response to reference temperature before it, is thus 288.6 / (255.2 + 7.2), or 1.1. Reference sensitivity to doubled CO2 is the product of the 3.52 W m–2 doubled-CO2 forcing (Zelinka et al. 2020) and the Planck parameter 0.3 K W–1 m2: i.e., 1.05 K. Equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2, the product of 1.05 K and the system-gain factor 1.1, is thus about 1.15 K – about the same as the anthropogenic global warming we may expect in the whole of the 21st century.
Consequently, the 3.9 K mean midrange prediction in the latest-generation (CMIP6) models (Zelinka et al. 2020) is a more-than-threefold overstatement, which arises because climate scientists imagine there is no feedback response to emission temperature. Their system-gain factor 26.2 / 6.2, or 4.2, exceeds the real-world 1.1 almost fourfold.
Come on, guys! When are you going to notice that the Sun is shining? It is the Sun that is responsible for very nearly all feedback response in today’s climate. Reference and equilibrium sensitivities are about the same, and one can neglect feedback response altogether in derivation of equilibrium sensitivities without significant error. Reference sensitivities are all you need. And that ends the climate emergency.