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Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires, US fires burn 5-10x less today’

Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
… 25% …from climate change, and “75% is the way we manage…Image

Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554)…Image

At time, fires were well-known

Here US deputy of Forest Service: “in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined.”…ImageImage

Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113…Image

Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn’t report back)

insert, p491…Image

EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100)

I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages…Image

Notice, that over next 80 years, fire burden will shift with some areas seeing more fire and others less…Image

US forest area has not decreased since 1900, actually slightly increased… (p7)Image

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