Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires, US fires burn 5-10x less today’


By: - Climate DepotJanuary 24, 2021 8:45 AM

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1353012739736817666.html

Climate change played a minor role in the wildfires that devastated California in the past three years, a panel of
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
… 25% …from climate change, and “75% is the way we manage landseenews.net/stories/106202…Image

Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554)

fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/pub…Image

At time, fires were well-known

Here US deputy of Forest Service: “in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined.”

books.google.se/books/about/Fo…ImageImage

Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113

fs.fed.us/research/susta…Image

Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn’t report back)

insert, p491

biodiversitylibrary.org/bibliography/2…Image

EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100)

I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages

cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…Image

Notice, that over next 80 years, fire burden will shift with some areas seeing more fire and others less

cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_r…Image

US forest area has not decreased since 1900, actually slightly increased

fs.usda.gov/sites/default/… (p7)Image

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